I am worried about a sprint higher in oil. Worried sick.
Inventories of diesel and jet fuel in the Northeast are at levels not seen
since 1996, and on the precipice of hitting all time lows. And this at a time when international travel has been curtailed by pandemic-related restrictions:
The low inventory levels are showing up in price. Diesel margins in New York Harbor currently sit
above $100/b. Margins that have historically averaged
less than $20/b.
Jet fuel margins briefly hit $200/b earlier this month, or ~10x normal levels. While refinery utilization in April has been elevated by historic standards, years of closures and bio-refining conversions have reduced capacity in the Northeast by ~50%:
Increased demand for fuel in the Northeast has historically been met by incremental supply of refined product from the Gulf Coast. Product that has traveled up the Eastern Seaboard through the
Colonial Pipeline. Recall 2021,
when a ransomware attack shut the Colonial Pipeline, creating gasoline shortages throughout the region.
COULD THIS BE THE TARGET AGAIN-!
Just today, PBF's (
PBF) CEO said that increased exports, largely out of the Gulf Coast to Europe, have reduced oil product volumes flowing through the Colonial Pipeline. The pipeline has historically been a bottleneck for supply, with producers being allocated only a portion of desired pipeline capacity. Thursday PBF (
PBF) CEO Nimbley said, "Colonial pipeline line 2 has not been allocated. It traditionally is always allocated."
With Russian energy sanctions set to take effect in coming months, it appears that self-sanctioning has already reduced oil product exports. Between the US and Europe, around 2mb/d of refining capacity has been closed since 2019, with most refineries converted to terminals or bio-diesel plants. Given restrictions on Russian exports,
China is the only supplier currently able to increase refined product exports. In March, China halted oil product exports entirely.<----- Saving for themselves.
With oil demand expected to reach new highs in 2022,
a shortage of refining capacity could impact consumers everywhere. At least consumers outside of China and Russia.
The Northeast is not uniquely at risk of shortage, as consumers can simply out-bid Europeans to reduce exports and pull additional product through the Colonial pipeline. But it's just these sorts of effective bidding wars that are increasing oil product prices<-- self fulfilling.
For investors, the dynamic creates unique challenges. Restricted crude oil exports from Russia have driven traders into the upstream sector. However, a refining capacity bottleneck could lift oil product prices, while restricting demand for crude oil (
USO).
Shifting the "economics of the barrel" to refiners for the first time in recent history. And this appears to be what is happening.
Currently, oil prices are ~$40 below all time highs; however, diesel prices are almost $10 above any prior period. The dynamic would suggest that pure-play oil refiners
like Valero(
VLO), Philips (
PSX), Par Pacific (
PARR), Marathon (
MPC) and others could benefit from evolving energy markets.
VLO-
PSX-
PARR-
MPC-