I DIDN'T GET IT IN VAN.
My guys on lunch-- it's not worth bothering an intern you buy it I think you nailed the bottom!
nice.
Stoney!!!!!
Ok, time to be serious.
I do like UPST, today it's just the tide and I know you know I'm just busting your chops. You are a great stock-picker, there is no doubt. I hope people see our banter fwiw... pure fun. It keeps the trading day interesting and it also helps moi while away the time waiting for the prime setups for the day trading account.
Upstart. ---- As tech stocks go, this one (not unlike twilio lol) will bounce with a vengeance on a nasdaq up day. If folks must own a few high fliers, these are the types to buy. Both Upstart and Twilio have demonstrated the propensity for this numerous times. Twilio more so as it has been around considerably longer, as I mentioned yesterday, I've watched it from the $40's pretty much.
Upstart is newer, but I have dug into it, and with the data I'm seeing, yes, it's the type of tech stock to own. But we need more research. There's a couple things to consider as we approach its earnings date of 5/9.
For one, the short interest is thru the roof at the moment. 19% of the float. Why? That's not retail folks. But is it being pushed down so the whales can buy the calls on the cheap? That's the question.
We are in a very unforgiving market when it comes to tech obviously. Even though compared to other high fliers UPST looks relatively cheap---- AND they make money---- one glitch on that earnings report and they'll get punished. It ipo'd around $28, and this will be only their 6th quarter reporting. Up 190% now from ipo. At its high it was up 1300%. One has to wonder how that can happen in such a relatively short period of time. Were the underwriters that clueless?
Its 200 day is $182 and its 50 day is about $112
Earnings on this one are gonna be doozey. Yesterday when it was $80 I looked and the May 13th straddle was 25%. Today the $75 straddle is about 29%.
That is huge. Bigger than nflx's was by far.
It's a tough call on this one Stoney, all I can say is it is gonna be very volatile.
If you buy 100 shares at $75, you can sell the call for $11.
That implies you make money all the way down to $64 if you hold it.
But those option writers are smart Stoney, there's no free lunch.
If you really think its a buy, why not have your people sell the $75 puts and pocket $11. That way if it goes up from here it's like buying it at $64. Ca-ching right?
Problem is that looks too easy, and that's usually a bad sign.
My advice right now for you, if you're in around $83.... and you plan on holding the shares, I'd sell a $75 May call contract for every 100 shares you have. You'll have $3 profitable trade and it basically flattens you out. If it drops from here, well, you have $3 of downside protection and you can hold the shares for the long haul and keep selling front month calls against the position.
This one is too risky for me, other than as a daytrade type stock. Not one for the granny portfolio thats for sure. Unless it's a very small position. And there's nothing wrong with a speculative play like that in there. Mine atm is that dog RH.