GBA Presents: House of Gummy-!

Oh man. can we just forget we sold this... because it was a YEAR24 Stock. For the whole year.
Intuitive Machines shares up 17% premarket after providing update on Odysseus » 08:41 LUNR

I got jumpy (again)
 
COYA IS YET ANOTHER 100% GAINER IN THE SI BIO WORLD--- WE HAD THIS AT $4 A THREAD AGO/ Once again I let it go.

Coya expands pipeline for COYA 302, adding Alzheimer's Disease » 08:30 COYA
 
Worksport announces SOLIS solar cover availability for Ford F-150 Lightning » 08:12 WKSP

Poor Worksport rushing to get these covers ready for a truck that nobody wants.
 
Wow-- 1 year up 311% where the hell have I been.. I'm starting to notice some huge Bio gains but then I'm like lets toggle back a few years...so look at this 5 years? -27%<----------------------


Company Profile
YMAB

Y-mAbs Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel antibody based therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer in the United States. It offers DANYELZA, a monoclonal antibody in combination with granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor for the treatment of pediatric patients with relapsed or refractory high-risk neuroblastoma. The company is also developing DANYELZA for the treatment of patients with second-line relapsed osteosarcoma and is in Phase II clinical study; GD2-SADA, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of GD2 positive solid tumor; and Omburtamab, a murine monoclonal antibody which has completed pivotal phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of central nervous system/ leptomeningeal metastases from neuroblastoma, and Omburtamab 03-133 that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of intrathecal immunotherapy for CNS/leptomeningeal metastases. In addition, its product pipeline includes huB7-H3 for the treatment of systemic solid tumors. The company has a license agreement with Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Massachusetts Institute of Technology to develop and commercialize licensed products. Y-mAbs Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
 
  • Oh Baby! I pulled off a swipe! Hard to explain,. I don't want to give away me secretes but if you go to a third entry portal you don't normally use (Chrome shhhhhhh) and you pretend you are your wife-- it asks? hit wife button and then you go to google and enter the heading for an article you are locked out of for an instant it shows up and if you are fast enough to drag and swipe and make the words blue and hit copy before the screen rolls up you actually gab alot of the article!!!!!
    Sea Limited is showing constructive upside trading action and momentum, with a price breakout possibly in progress.
  • The company operates in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Its main businesses are focused on e-commerce, mobile gaming, and digital payments.
  • Sea Limited is transitioning to a self-funded growth strategy, with a strong balance sheet, improving profit margins, and its most attractive valuation ever.




in-this-photo-illustration-a-womans-silhouette-holds-a-smartphone-with-the-shopee-logo.jpg




With the overall U.S. equity market rising +15% to +20% since October, it is getting harder to find an honest bottoming pattern worthy of purchase for my portfolio. I am afraid a number of stocks that look like they are bottoming, areactually future "underperformers" experiencing some arbitrage buying as the general market zigzags higher (giving us a false impression of 2024's potential for positive returns).

One company that has popped onto my momentum sorts, showing incredibly constructive upside trading pressure, with little price movement as of yet, isSea Limited(NYSE:SE). This company is based in Singapore, operating an online business model similar toAlibaba(BABA) in China orAmazon(AMZN) in America.

After a general recap of the business, this article will review the bullish technical trading setup, which I rate as excellent forlong-term buyers wanting to diversify out of the U.S. market.

The Business
The areas of the world served by Seal Limited include Southeast Asia (also abbreviated SEA) and the quickly growing Latin America online market. In order of importance and revenue generation,Shopeeis a well-received e-commerce intermediary with 375 million registered users,Garenafocuses on mobile gaming and digital entertainment with 544 million users, andSeaMoneyis an accelerating-growth digital payments and financial services concern.




Company Website - Sea.com



Over the trailing four quarters, $12.9 billion in revenue and $900 million in profits were reported. Unfortunately for buy-and-hold investors, the share price has moved/imploded from a peak number over $370 in October 2021 to a bottom at $32 in January for a -90% loss. The excuse? Business expansion rates have decelerated markedly from the stay-at-home boom during the early days of the pandemic in 2020-21, at the same time as Chinese and Asian economic growth has become suspect in 2023-24. I fully understand the angst owners of the stock must feel if purchased in 2021 and held all the way down.

The most straightforward explanation of wild fluctuations in Sea Limited's stock quote can be found in the acceleration and deceleration in operating sales.



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YCharts - Sea Limited, Trailing Annual Sales & YoY Quarterly Growth Rate, Since 2017



For an education on all the moving parts in the underlying business, I highly recommend reading Seeking Alpha analystRiyado Sofian's take on the company from afew months ago here.

The summary bull thesis is company management is transitioning away from a landgrab grow-at-all-costs mentality to one centered on internally generated income and the self-funding of moderate rates of expansion. The company held around $1.5 billion in net cash (after debt) at the end of September, creating a liquid and conservative balance sheet. The best news is, Sea Limited is now churning out far smarter operating income levels vs. two years ago. Below is a table of the jump in income expected by Wall Street analysts for 2024-25.




Seeking Alpha Table - Sea Limited, Analyst Estimates for 2023-25, Made on February 9th, 2024



Compared to Alibaba and Amazon, Sea Limited runs a similar business model, with EV to EBITDA (17.6x) and sales (1.5x) multiples coming down on the huge share quote decline since late 2021. For sure, the enterprise valuation on forward estimates for basic cash EBITDA earnings (before reductions for interest, taxes, and non-cash depreciation & amortization) plus sales are more desirable today at HALF the ratios of 12 months ago.



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YCharts - Sea Limited vs. Alibaba & Amazon, EV to Forward Estimated EBITDA, 1 Year

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YCharts - Sea Limited vs. Alibaba & Amazon, EV to Forward Estimated Sales, 1 Year



Profit margins, both gross and final, have jumped considerably over recent years. Gross margins (46%) are the highest of the three names, with analysts projecting after-tax margins meeting or beating mighty Amazon during 2023-25.



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YCharts - Sea Limited vs. Alibaba & Amazon, Gross Profit Margins, 5 Years

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YCharts - Sea Limited vs. Alibaba & Amazon, Final Profit Margins, 5 Years



Aggressive Accumulation - Bottoming Pattern
The most exciting part of the Sea Limited investment backdrop is price appears to be in the early stages of breaking out of a base pattern since August. In addition, buying momentum supporting the price has been picking up steam since September. Let me explain.

The price pattern becomes quite clear when we drawPoint & Figurecharts. This type of chart is focused purely on price changes (and does not utilize the traditional equal increments of time). P&F graphs can give insight into overhead share supply. In the current case for Sea Limited, sellers may be disappearing and/or exhausting share volumes for sale. Breaking above the red trendlines drawn as resistance is the key first signal of a potential turnaround.




StockCharts.com - Sea Limited, Basic P&F Graph, 1 Year


StockCharts.com - Sea Limited, Short-Term P&F Graph, 4 Months



Just as impressive is the upward trend in many of my favorite momentum indicators, despite a relatively flat stock quote. Below, I have drawn an 18-month chart, and one focused on the latest 5 months of daily trading action.

Despite price selling off about -10% vs. its October peak, theAccumulation/Distribution Line,Negative Volume Index, andOn Balance Volumereadings were trading at or near 6-month highs last week. It could be buyers are starting to overrun sellers. This momentum setup is quite rare and usually a super-bullish development.




StockCharts.com - Sea Limited, 18 Months of Daily Price & Volume Changes


StockCharts.com - Sea Limited, 5 Months of Daily Price & Volume Changes



Final Thoughts
The company is expected to report December Q4 earnings in early March. If the news is good, I would expect an oversized gain in the share quote into April-May. Insider anticipation of bullish Q4 results or guidance for the new year could explain the robust underlying buying pressure in the stock for months.

I did write about Alibaba in a bullish mannerseveral weeks ago here. I would look at Sea Limited as a complimentary play, especially if Asia's economic fortunes turn for the better in 2024.

What could go wrong with investing in Sea Limited? For me, the biggest risk is Asia's economy remains sluggish all year. Under this scenario, getting much above $55 or $60 a share may prove difficult. Another downside possibility is a sizable "bear market" in global equities could keep the quote around $40.

Spending less on growth has also cost the company market share to more aggressive competition. Sea Limited's main competitors includeMercoado Libre,Lazada(owned by Alibaba), andTokopedia, which recently received a large investment fromTikTok. However, in my view, the transition to business profitability and sustainable growth will soon reward shareholders.

In terms of bearish target forecasts, I doubt price declines below $30 on a sustainable basis (closer to 1x sales). Why?

The growth outlook of sharply rising online use, especially through smartphones, in Southeast Asia is too positive to ignore. AGoogle Blog in November, with research data fromBain, highlighted the extraordinary digital growth of late in the Southeast Asia region,

The region’s digital economy is set to hit US$100 billion in revenue — an eight-time revenue increase for digital businesses in the last eight years. In fact, revenue is growing 1.7 times as fast as GMV, which is reaching US$218 billion this year.




Google Blog - Sapna Chadha Author, Southeast Asia Region Digital Economy Growth, November 1st, 2023



The bottom line is macroeconomic online sales have been mushrooming in the 20% to 30% annual range for this region of the world. Since Sea Limited is well positioned to ride this upward trend, while its valuation is back to a normal range, the outlook for share pricing is very bright. Given margin improvement on a 10% to 15% sales growth rate for years (subpar vs. the industry), I believe EPS well above $3 annually are approaching.

My plan is to acquire shares next week, as the valuation foundation exists to support a far higher quote on ANY resumption of higher business growth rates. The stock may be sitting in a similar position to the winning Big Tech names in America bought during late 2022 at depressed levels. I rate Sea Limited aStrong Buy, with upside targets as high as $100 (3x sales) in 18 to 24-months, given any unexpected jump in revenue.

by
Paul Franke

Nationally ranked stock picker for 30 years. Victory Formation and Bottom Fishing Club quant-sort pioneer.....Paul Franke is a private investor and speculator with 37 years of trading experience. Mr. Franke was Editor and Publisher of the Maverick Investor® newsletter during the 1990s, widely quoted by CNBC®, Barron’s®, the Washington Post® and Investor’s Business Daily®. Paul was consistently ranked among top investment advisors nationally for stock market and commodity macro views by Timer Digest® during the 1990s.



SO THIS CAT AGREES WITH ME TA-WISE.

THIS IS A CLASSIC TEST OF TA VS FUNDI!!!!!
 
Despite price selling off about -10% vs. its October peak, theAccumulation/Distribution Line,Negative Volume Index, andOn Balance Volumereadings were trading at or near 6-month highs last week. It could be buyers are starting to overrun sellers. This momentum setup is quite rare and usually a super-bullish development.


I spotted this divergence as well...
 
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