Don't forget to multiply by .67ish for the Aussie dollar.
GBA Presents: House of Gummy-!
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
.67 x $24AUD = $16 hr USD hourly wage and ($14.99 AUD) is 9.99 USD for a Double Big Mac Combo? How can they do it so cheap?
Hello. I am hesitant to be shrill and shout of warnings. The last time I did we had the Wed reversal that has led to this decline. That was an outstanding bit of work on my part using all of my sources and innate ability to time over enthusiasm. We are in a different place now.
Jobs that go down will be good. Jobs that will go up will be very bad. I was working out the angles and two of the three possible outcomes were negative but I have been drinking a bit and have forgotten the third outcome.
We are at a strange point. What has to happen: The dot plotters need to get in line. We cannot have as much easing as folks expect.
Earnings are the wildcard they are upon us. Thank God. (I think) -
This number tomorrow there is a heck of alot of alpha attributed to it. I hope and pray it is the most in line report ever.
In the bond market everyone is on edge. I heard a Bloomberg employee talking about this.
Things are jacked to explode up in rates tomorrow. Lets hope this does not happen.
Massive Bet Is Not Helping-
The trade targets a surge in US 10-year yields to as high as 4.15% by Friday’s close of business, or a jump of about 0.15 percentage points from Thursday’s closing level. That would mark the biggest one-day rise in 10-year yields since late March and a further retrenchment for Treasuries, which have had a rocky start to the year after ending 2023 on a winning note following a furious two-month rally.
The timing of the bearish bet comes just ahead of the December jobs report, due at 8:30 am New York time Friday, with expectations rising for a robust readout. Separate data released Thursday showed hiring by US companies ramped up in December, while first-time jobless claims fell in the latest week, the latest signs of a resilient labor market.
“If I was a fund manager or a market participant, I’d think some cheap option protection right now would be advisable because the market’s overplayed the disinflation narrative,” said Stephen Miller, a three-decade bond market veteran who now works as an investment consultant at GSFM. “So it makes sense that there’s such a bearish wager in markets.”
The options action was in the so-called Friday Week One 10-year January Treasury options, which are often used to hedge positions over specific risk events such as Fed policy meetings or jobs reports. The buying seen Thursday was notably aggressive, with a position building of around 20,000 options for a premium of roughly $625,000.
Should the 10-year yield end the day at 4.20% — approximately 20 basis points higher than current market levels — the profit on the trade could reach about $10 million, according to a Bloomberg scenario analysis. The yield was around 3.99% in Asia trading Friday.
Friday’s report is expected to show US employers added 175,000 jobs last month, with the so-called whisper number calling for an increase of 185,000 positions. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Economics’ nowcast points to a 283,000 monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls, up from 199,000 in November, and a further drop in the unemployment rate to 3.6% from 3.7% a month earlier.
A strong report would add to evidence of economic strength that has already caused traders to ratchet back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts as soon March, and trim gains from the recent rally. US 10-year yields — the benchmark rate for everything from mortgages to loans — have added about 12 basis points since the start of the year, reversing a decline that sent them more than a percentage point lower in the final two months of 2023.
For Miller, data on US wages will be closely parsed by traders.
“A key number we should be watching out for is the hourly earnings – if we don’t get 3.9%, that might be a catalyst for some big moves in Treasuries,” he said.
Jobs that go down will be good. Jobs that will go up will be very bad. I was working out the angles and two of the three possible outcomes were negative but I have been drinking a bit and have forgotten the third outcome.
We are at a strange point. What has to happen: The dot plotters need to get in line. We cannot have as much easing as folks expect.
Earnings are the wildcard they are upon us. Thank God. (I think) -
This number tomorrow there is a heck of alot of alpha attributed to it. I hope and pray it is the most in line report ever.
In the bond market everyone is on edge. I heard a Bloomberg employee talking about this.
Things are jacked to explode up in rates tomorrow. Lets hope this does not happen.
Massive Bet Is Not Helping-
The trade targets a surge in US 10-year yields to as high as 4.15% by Friday’s close of business, or a jump of about 0.15 percentage points from Thursday’s closing level. That would mark the biggest one-day rise in 10-year yields since late March and a further retrenchment for Treasuries, which have had a rocky start to the year after ending 2023 on a winning note following a furious two-month rally.
The timing of the bearish bet comes just ahead of the December jobs report, due at 8:30 am New York time Friday, with expectations rising for a robust readout. Separate data released Thursday showed hiring by US companies ramped up in December, while first-time jobless claims fell in the latest week, the latest signs of a resilient labor market.
“If I was a fund manager or a market participant, I’d think some cheap option protection right now would be advisable because the market’s overplayed the disinflation narrative,” said Stephen Miller, a three-decade bond market veteran who now works as an investment consultant at GSFM. “So it makes sense that there’s such a bearish wager in markets.”
The options action was in the so-called Friday Week One 10-year January Treasury options, which are often used to hedge positions over specific risk events such as Fed policy meetings or jobs reports. The buying seen Thursday was notably aggressive, with a position building of around 20,000 options for a premium of roughly $625,000.
Should the 10-year yield end the day at 4.20% — approximately 20 basis points higher than current market levels — the profit on the trade could reach about $10 million, according to a Bloomberg scenario analysis. The yield was around 3.99% in Asia trading Friday.
Friday’s report is expected to show US employers added 175,000 jobs last month, with the so-called whisper number calling for an increase of 185,000 positions. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Economics’ nowcast points to a 283,000 monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls, up from 199,000 in November, and a further drop in the unemployment rate to 3.6% from 3.7% a month earlier.
A strong report would add to evidence of economic strength that has already caused traders to ratchet back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts as soon March, and trim gains from the recent rally. US 10-year yields — the benchmark rate for everything from mortgages to loans — have added about 12 basis points since the start of the year, reversing a decline that sent them more than a percentage point lower in the final two months of 2023.
For Miller, data on US wages will be closely parsed by traders.
“A key number we should be watching out for is the hourly earnings – if we don’t get 3.9%, that might be a catalyst for some big moves in Treasuries,” he said.
Jeff Bezos Encouraged His Brother And Sister To Invest $10,000 In Amazon — Their Stake Grew 10,249,900% And Now Potentially Is Worth Over $1 Billion...
And when I accepted 10,000 shares of a company that recommended Dr's for pot prescriptions in fla for the domain 420friendly.com which I sold them for cash & these shares-- My stake is zero. The shares appear worthless.
Thanks Jeff.
The newest numbers show an increase in casual dining and a flat read for expensive dining.
Now these in the middle ideas and expensive hamburgers this is a problem Food costs went up and now they are back down these bakers we felt so sorry for during the pandemic their eggs are now down 50%. The prices have not come down. Wage inflation is out of control and they are keeping their prices up and gouging the consumer.
It is the consumer who needs to take control now and slow down the economy. Make wise choices.. Go to BROS coffee- don't get $500 dinners the way I did and don't buy a McDonald's product for $30 no matter how posh the neighborhood.
STAND UP AND BE COUNTED: WE ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE.
LETS DO THIS!!!!
CROX-
I don't know why I am attracted to this investment.- Some value metrics are off the hook but is it growing?
The the stock of footwear company has fallen by 11.09% in the past month, lagging the Consumer Discretionary sector's gain of 3.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 4%.
The upcoming earnings release of Crocs will be of great interest to investors. On that day, Crocs is projected to report earnings of $2.27 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 14.34%. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $923.76 million, showing a 2.26% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.>>>>>>>>
GET THE FEELING ANY GOOD NEWS WILL BE OVER CELEBRATED IN A BIG WAY: COILED SPRING SITUATION.
I don't know why I am attracted to this investment.- Some value metrics are off the hook but is it growing?
The the stock of footwear company has fallen by 11.09% in the past month, lagging the Consumer Discretionary sector's gain of 3.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 4%.
The upcoming earnings release of Crocs will be of great interest to investors. On that day, Crocs is projected to report earnings of $2.27 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 14.34%. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $923.76 million, showing a 2.26% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.>>>>>>>>
GET THE FEELING ANY GOOD NEWS WILL BE OVER CELEBRATED IN A BIG WAY: COILED SPRING SITUATION.
Points Of Interest TA ULTA
$425<---------------> $472 Support Zone
Buy Point*-------->$447
ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$468.92-4.90(-1.03%)
$425<---------------> $472 Support Zone
Buy Point*-------->$447
ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$468.92-4.90(-1.03%)
GBA Rule Number 7
-Do The morning routines
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ggZ7574ION4
HEROES ALL!!!!<----
-Do The morning routines
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ggZ7574ION4
HEROES ALL!!!!<----
OMG!!!
Stoney, you are the hero in your own autobiography--- and trust me--- I doubt it would sell over 20 copies.
Your "Wednesday correction" was gone two days later. So your call didn't "initiate" anything.
The fact that the SPX had a meteoric rise of over 15% in the space of a month, common sense says a pullback was inevitable. If you read other threads here at ET alone, there were a half dozen posters saying the exact same thing, and I have a feeling they didn't glob that from you.
Here's a picture out to year end. Your correction was muted, and an overall pullback, which is where we are now, is normal market behavior.The arrow was that Wednesday to which you refer.
And to that end, if you really think we are heading for a REAL correction, ie the generally accepted 10%, why are you recommending stocks that trade at exorbitant P/S's, with no earnings, and for the most part are flash in the pan type stocks that pop a few % on an article just to give it all back and then some a week later?
You always say "Van why are you so negative?" I'm not. I'm just grounded in the reality of what is. I can turn on CNBC or Bloomberg and in the same day hear three "experts" saying we're going up, and three experts say we are going down. That's reality.
If one wants to roll the dice in the market casino, odds are after a 15% rise in a mere 30 days, laying your chips on the "we're going down" line probably has a better chance of winning than vice-versa. So stop with the silly posts already. You have no more market savvy than anyone else who's played this game for a few decades. Accept that fact and live with it.
And if you truly think we are heading for a 10% pullback... a little more research and a little less volume of story stock posts would be in order. I spent all afternoon looking for one solid pick that I could offer up, one that isn't constantly thrown out there ad nauseam by everyone and their brother.... and not one fit my criterion. Know why? Because it takes a long time to research a company, and in the space of an afternoon, digging into 2 or 3 pretty much takes an afternoon. As the old adage goes... you have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find a prince. So quit surfing Youtube all day, and start kissing some frogs. ~vz