GBA Presents: House of Gummy-!
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
(Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting.
The Pershing Square Capital Management founder said such a move could happen as soon as the first quarter. Traders are fully pricing in a rate cut in June, with the chance of a cut happening in May priced at about 80%, according to swaps market data.
The Fed began aggressively raising rates in March 2022, leading to the fastest pace of rate increases in 40 years. The central bank has yet to cut rates even as US inflation has broadly slowed this year.
“What’s happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines,” Ackman said in an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.
Ackman said that if the Fed keeps rates in the roughly 5.5% range when inflation trends below 3%, “that’s a very high real rate of interest.”
Ackman, 57, founded Pershing Square in 2004. The firm, which manages about $17 billion of assets, made its name in shareholder activism, but Ackman said he prefers to think of his team as “engaged owners” of businesses rather than hard-charging activists.
The firm has made a number of macro bets over the years. Last month, Ackman moved the market when he tweeted that the firm had covered its short bet on US Treasuries.
Ackman told Rubenstein he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a so-called soft landing, a scenario where the Fed raises interest rates without triggering a recession.
“I think there’s a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates pretty soon,” said Ackman, noting that he’s seen evidence of a weakening economy.
The Pershing Square Capital Management founder said such a move could happen as soon as the first quarter. Traders are fully pricing in a rate cut in June, with the chance of a cut happening in May priced at about 80%, according to swaps market data.
The Fed began aggressively raising rates in March 2022, leading to the fastest pace of rate increases in 40 years. The central bank has yet to cut rates even as US inflation has broadly slowed this year.
“What’s happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines,” Ackman said in an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.
Ackman said that if the Fed keeps rates in the roughly 5.5% range when inflation trends below 3%, “that’s a very high real rate of interest.”
Ackman, 57, founded Pershing Square in 2004. The firm, which manages about $17 billion of assets, made its name in shareholder activism, but Ackman said he prefers to think of his team as “engaged owners” of businesses rather than hard-charging activists.
The firm has made a number of macro bets over the years. Last month, Ackman moved the market when he tweeted that the firm had covered its short bet on US Treasuries.
Ackman told Rubenstein he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a so-called soft landing, a scenario where the Fed raises interest rates without triggering a recession.
“I think there’s a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates pretty soon,” said Ackman, noting that he’s seen evidence of a weakening economy.
Should we buy on pullbacks?
I'm not following this post.
Where are you going with this?
Your very own words here:
That kind of NYC wishy washy two faced bs might work down in the Politics section.... but it won't work in Stocks.
Sorry Stoney.
Unlike your hero's... if you're gonna talk the talk... learn to walk the walk. At least here at ET.
~case closed
Schumer this sounds bad-
Adelson family close to buying majority stake in Dallas Mavericks, Sportico says » 19:01 LVS
Watch out bet he dumps a ton of LVS
Watch out bet he dumps a ton of LVS
We had another good scoop yesterday--Watch $72.50 here--
That would be 6 month break out./ I have some doubt we will get past that number. If it does she could take off! Be prepared either way.
NET Cloudflare, Inc.
$71.18 +4.64 (+6.97%)<----------
4:00 PM 07/17/23
Running out of steam. The market as a whole or just Cloudflare-- We may have to move on.
Traders Are Betting That GameStop Will Jump 50% Within Two Weeks
Gooooooooooooood Morning.!
Big day!!! Day 2 of the Cramer selloff-! // A transatlantic flight made history flying without any fossil fuels!!!!! Thank you Great Britain for ponying up the $1M plus to show the world it is possible. Huge news there.
A biotech named Loyal (do not think public) has extended the life in dogs. They have met with the FDA and are moving forwards... Are there human possibilities off this tech? YUP.
Cease Fire last day will it be continued?
HOUSE OF GUMMY No 1 Ranked Stock Thread in USA -!! Not just East Coast.
Stonedinvestor No 1 Ranked Market Timer 2023!!!-- MarketWatch
-- Predicted Year of AI
--Predicted Bond Market Collapse
-- caught the turn in China (and then lost it)
-- Rang up 44 consecutive huge winners-- a record!!
-- nailed 14 20%- 40% moves in small cap stocks when small caps were in a Bear market.
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-- Provided numerous home runs in safe IRA picks.
-- Provided Option trades that all worked except for Foot Locker
--nailed the absolute low in stocks before anyone else by two weeks.
-- 15-1 Record by the Lizard King on S&P moves
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Question: How do we stop the thread that has officially ended twice already-?
CAN ANYONE STOP THE HOUSE OF GUMMY-
#1
-- WHAT DOES 2024 HAVE IN STORE?
Foot Locker narrows FY23 EPS view to $1.30-$1.40 from $1.30-$1.50 » 06:54 FL
Relief Rally?
Relief Rally?
--Lennox price target raised to $460 from $415 at KeyBanc » 06:39 LII
--Marti Technologies initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald 06:38 MRT
--NetApp price target raised to $88 from $84 at UBS » 06:32 NTAP
--Pinterest price target raised to $40 from $37 at Piper Sandler » 06:31 PINS
--OmniAb initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital » 06:28 OABI
--Tuya upgraded at Morgan Stanley after second consecutive 'solid' quarter » 06:25 TUYA
YOUR DAILY GUMMY-!
Tuya Inc. (TUYA)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price.
1.9100-0.0200(-1.04%)
At close: November 28 04:00PM EST
2.1500+0.24(+12.57%)<------------------- wait for 10:30
Pre-Market:07:00AM EST
--Marti Technologies initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald 06:38 MRT
--NetApp price target raised to $88 from $84 at UBS » 06:32 NTAP
--Pinterest price target raised to $40 from $37 at Piper Sandler » 06:31 PINS
--OmniAb initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital » 06:28 OABI
--Tuya upgraded at Morgan Stanley after second consecutive 'solid' quarter » 06:25 TUYA
YOUR DAILY GUMMY-!
Tuya Inc. (TUYA)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price.
1.9100-0.0200(-1.04%)
At close: November 28 04:00PM EST
2.1500+0.24(+12.57%)<------------------- wait for 10:30
Pre-Market:07:00AM EST