There is an old saying canary in the coal mine. I'm sure you know it. The bird dies first when the gas come by-- it's a warning.
One of the themes I nailed this past year- Bond Market demise- I got everyone out of bonds completely and that was hard to do.
Now I feel this is the story of next year and our canary in the coalmine.-THE BASIS TRADE-
Fed’s Barr Joins Chorus Warning on Hedge Funds’ Basis Trades
Fed’s Barr Joins Chorus Warning on Hedge Funds’ Basis Trades
(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator on Thursday joined a chorus of US officials expressing concern about highly leveraged trading by hedge funds in the Treasury market.
Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, said the government needed more information about these trades. In the past several months, regulators have been homing in on risks that could stem from one strategy known as the basis trade, which involves the use of leverage to profit from the price gap between Treasury futures and the underlying cash market.
Read More: US Weighs Leaning on Banks to Curb Hedge Fund Leveraged Trading
Leveraged trading, including in the so-called basis trade, can play an important role in capital markets and can bolster market efficiency, Barr said in remarks prepared for a New York Fed conference on the Treasury market. “But leverage can also increase risks to both market participants and to Treasury market functioning and must be managed appropriately by both investors and their counterparties, including through collecting margin to manage counterparty risk,” he said.
Although the Fed collects information on the triparty repo market, Barr said there’s less data on trades that aren’t centrally cleared. He called a government plan to collect more information on that segment on the market “an important step forward.” He also said the work of a hedge-fund working group formed by the US Financial Stability Oversight Council.
Hedge funds and their trading strategies have come under fire during the Biden administration. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has said there are significant regulatory blind spots in hedge-fund trading.
No single regulator sees the full picture or understands all the risks associated with basis trading, Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said at the same event. “Continuously scanning the road ahead, and informed by what we have encountered along the way, we keep an eye towards ensuring market resiliency and integrity,” he said.
Behnam also described steps the CFTC is taking to address the risks posed by artificial intelligence, including the creation of task force focused on AI in the derivatives markets.
The task force in 2024 is planning to seek public feedback on how CFTC-regulated firms currently are or could use AI in trading, risk management and cybersecurity, he said. The agency will use the responses it gets “to inform our supervisory oversight and evaluate the need for future guidance, rulemakings,” according to Behnam.
Central Clearing
At Thursday’s conference, a top SEC official also addressed industry concerns about the implementation of a proposal to mandate central clearing of all US Treasuries. The agency has heard “loud and clear” the comments about the need for a workable implementation timeline, said Haoxiang Zhu, the head of the agency’s trading and markets division.
At the same time, multiple regulators have a “sense of urgency” to improve the resiliency of the Treasuries market in light of heightened volatility and growth in the $25 trillion market, he added.
Zhu said he was speaking on his own behalf and that he couldn’t say anything too definitive before the SEC votes on a final rule. The proposal was issued in September 2022.