With all that said, as I also wrote, it is very important to note that the July/August (2022) housing prices will fall off of the economic data released in September. July/August of last year was pretty much when new and existing home prices had really spiked and I suspect Powell is gonna like what he see's in the new CPI data.
The FOMC announcement is on 9/20. I'm pretty sure Powell will once again remain pat. And that's not earth-shattering news, I think the markets have that priced in already. As always it will be his "tone" that the guru's dissect, so that is why I think 9/13 is the date to watch. That's when we get the CPI data.
If my assumptions are correct, and the housing data comes in below consensus, that will certainly have an impact on his tone the following week. He will of course maintain his usual stoic demeanor about things, but what's important here is I think the the whales will start front running 9/13 as early as next week or the week following.
With everyone once again saying "tech has to go down!", I suspect the Naz is getting ready to run once again and any dips should be bought. All in all, tech earnings have come in pretty strong. And I don't mean just the usual FAANG type stuff, several former super-high flyers that have been beaten down to (somewhat) reasonable levels have turned the corner on profitability. TEAM and TWLO are two good examples that I like, but there are several more. I think the next leg up will be fostered by a fresh group of some of these former high flyer's. Not that the Faangs will lose their novelty, it's just time for some fresh stocks that have the potential to move big if Powell leads us to believe he is done for now, with cuts looking more possible in '24. I think TWLO and TEAM will be part of the group. But we'll see.
As always, jmho. Trade what you see, but also plan accordingly if you have a longer time-frame.
I told ya!!!!!
