Mike Crawford, senior equity research analyst and head of the Discovery Group at B. Riley Securities, is not discouraged that Redwire Corp. isn’t living up to the lofty revenue projections it made two years ago.
Crawford is encouraged enough by what the Jacksonville-based space technology firm is doing now that he initiated coverage of Redwire with a “buy” rating.
“Redwire, a global leader in space infrastructure, literally serves an addressable market that is out of this world,” Crawford said in his April 20 initiation report.
Mike Crawford,
“We believe Redwire is on a shortlist of winners in the new space economy, fueled by a strong portfolio of proprietary products and a
healthy $465 million backlog,” he said.
Redwire went public in 2021 by merging with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, called Genesis Park Acquisition Corp. The process of a private company going public by merging with a blank check company like Genesis is called a “de-SPAC.”
“Redwire, like many of its de-SPAC brethren, is still struggling to regain credibility after going public with heady intentions and lofty guidance, which in Redwire’s case included a July 2021 ‘expectation’ for $1.4 billion revenue in 2025 — a far cry from the mid-$300 million level we believe the company can generate organically with current assets,” Crawford said.
“While many de-SPAC wounds were, in our opinion, self-inflicted by over-eager boards and sponsors seeking additional capital to fuel business plans, in Redwire’s case, we recognize that many commercial customers two years ago believed they would be receiving hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars in capital to fuel their own business plans,” he said.
“When this capital failed to materialize or dissipated, so too did much of Redwire’s near-term pipeline of potential commercial business, as it aims to arm potentially high-growth enterprises with the systems and components required to push humanity’s reach into space.”
Although revenue expectations are much lower now, Crawford still likes what he sees.
“Longer term, however, we are confident that Redwire can sustain a healthy double-digit top-line growth rate while likely driving EBITDA margins into the high teens given operating leverage and the proprietary nature of its solutions,” he said.
Crawford has a $5 price target for the stock, which was trading at $3.01 when he issued his report.
Crawford is the second analyst to begin covering Redwire. Jefferies analyst Greg Konrad also rates the stock as a “buy.”
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