GBA Presents: House of Gummy-!

I continue to be worried for the stock market and for the US economy.

I gave you all a econ fact before it went mainstream-- The filing for bankruptcies <------

This is at a level not seen since some serious market meltdowns>

What does this mean? Well the too far too fast Fed has sunk alot of folks... and this means non traditional bank lending one of my overriding themes this year is of the hook!

Blackstone and KKR and SOFI this is the sweet spot of the economy.

READ THIS-

Researchers at the US central bank just published a paper warning that a historic surge in the percentage of distressed American companies could worsen the fallout from the Fed's inflation battle.

Plainly, they said high borrowing costs could cause a huge number of companies to crumble.

"The share of nonfinancial firms in financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s," Ander Perez-Orive and Yannick Timmer wrote.

The Fed's 10 consecutive interest rates — intended to quell historically high prices — threaten to hammer business investment, employment, and economic activity.

Now, the economists said, it's possible that debt-ridden companies will avoid spending money on new developments or facilities, hiring, or production.

The full extent of the damage remains to be seen, but as of now, the central bank authors said about 37% of firms are in trouble.

That is, more than a third of companies could default in the coming months, thanks to tightening monetary policy.

Pardon the jargon, but here's how the researchers put it:

"Our hypothesis is that following a policy tightening, access to external financing deteriorates more for firms that are in distress than for healthy firms, while following a policy easing, external financing conditions do not change appreciably enough for the two groups of firms to trigger a differential response."

Got it?

It's okay, I didn't either the first time around.

Basically, they are predicting that companies feel pain in times of policy tightening, especially those with weaker balance sheets to begin with.

But at the same time, loosening of policy doesn't necessarily translate to smoother sailing in the same way.
Wanna know how to get a leg up on that stuff? Ie, catch the pulse of small-medium sized businesses before the Street knows? Always listen to AJG's conference calls. :sneaky:
 
Constellation Brands Earnings Due As Modelo Beer Sees Boost From Bud Light Boycott

Modelo Especial brand owner Constellation Brands (STZ) will report its Q1 results early Friday. Analysts expect the beer behemoth to benefit from the recent Bud Light boycotts. STZ stock inched down Wednesday after rising Tuesday prior to its end-of-week report.

Modelo Claims Title Of Top Beer
Modelo overtook Bud Light as the top beer in the U.S. last month, claiming 8.4% of all retail sales compared to Bud Light's 7.3%. The Anheuser-Busch brand held the crown since 2001, but boycotts caused Bud Light sales to dive following its April 1 ad with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney. Meanwhile, Bud Light U.S. retail sales dived 25.8% in the week ended June 17 vs. the same week last year. Modelo Especial sales climbed 8.6%.

Modelo had been gaining market share more gradually ahead of the Bud Light furor.

Constellation Brands sells Modelo in the U.S. but Anheuser-Busch's subsidiary Grupo Modelo owns the international brand license. Anheuser-Busch sold the brand to Constellation Brands in 2013 to gain regulatory approval for its Groupo Modelo acquisition.

In a research note last Thursday, Deutsche Bank said Bud Light sales may never fully recover and that could have a permanent impact on Anheuser-Busch's U.S. business. The recent stock underperformance "implies a permanent reduction in ABI's U.S. business," analyst Mitch Collett wrote. "Our proprietary survey data suggests these headwinds are likely to fade even if we do not expect the U.S. business to ever fully recover from its current challenges." Still, the firm thinks the worst of the boycotts are over and upgraded AB InBev shares to a buy rating and raised the price target to 60 euros from 59 euros.

Anheuser-Busch is primarily listed on the Euronext exchange under the ticker ABI. In the U.S., it trades in American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) under the ticker BUD on the New York Stock Exchange.

Constellation Brands Price Target Raised
Wells Fargo raised its price target on STZ stock to 275 from 260 and maintained its overweight rating on Thursday, noting that Constellation Brands' portfolio is healthier, has areas of strength and a path to improve.

The raise followed a price target increase from Citi on Wednesday. The firm expects Constellation Brands to report "a solid quarter" with upside to its "on-consensus numbers" based on re-acceleration in sales scanner data and bullish commentary from management during the quarter, analyst Filippo Falorni wrote. Citi boosted its price target on STZ stock to 280 from 265 and kept its buy rating on the shares.

Constellation Brands Earnings
Analysts polled by FactSet expect earnings to rise 6.4% to $2.83 per share. That would follow two quarters of year-over-year declines. FactSet guides 4.4% sales growth to $2.47 billion, which would be a rebound from a 5% decline in fiscal Q4.

STZ Stock
Constellation Brands stock dipped slightly to 246.81 Wednesday after climbing 1.9% to 246.99 Tuesday.

STZ shares are trading below a 248.43 buy point for a saucer-with-handle base. The stock briefly topped that entry on June 15. Shares are testing support at their 21-day exponential moving average and trading just above their 10-day line.

While the 248.43 entry is still technically valid, investors might use the June 15 high of 250.14 as a new handle buy point.

STZ stock jumped 10.2% over the past three months but only climbed 4.3% so far this year.
 
Of course! In fact we were experimenting if Bacchus remembered the word " beach " it's been over a year and a half.. and I think he does. One small thing he is allergic to shell fish so we have to be careful with those large crabs that wash up on the beach./

In case you missed it-
 
Of course! In fact we were experimenting if Bacchus remembered the word " beach " it's been over a year and a half.. and I think he does. One small thing he is allergic to shell fish so we have to be careful with those large crabs that wash up on the beach./

In case you missed it-
All oceans are off limits to Muttley, She can have any lake, but when she was younger, at Myrtle Beach, I swear I thought that dummy was trying to swim to Europe. Scared me to death. I'm serious, I was screaming at her. I mean I thought I was gonna have to go out and get her. It was scary.
 
Ted,
Is there all sorts of chatter on the reddit boards about Blackberry? The $5.50 calls were selling like hotcakes today for about $0.15

That's a HUGE headline revenue beat, and it's up about 14% in the after hours.
$5.70 A lot of volume too. But I'll tell ya what, I think that headline is bs. The way I read it $217M of that revenue beat was a one-time gain from the sale of their patent portfolio.

These numbers don't make any sense. What kind of bs report is this?

•Total company revenue was $373 million.
•Total company GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin was 48%, both lower due to completion of the significant sale of the non-core portion of the patent portfolio in the quarter. Excluding the patent sale, the non-GAAP gross margin was 22 percentage points higher.
•IoT revenue was $45 million, with gross margin of 80%.
•Cybersecurity revenue was $93 million, with gross margin of 60% and ARR of $289 million.
•Cybersecurity billings were $122 million, increasing for the 4th consecutive quarter, with 14% sequential and 37% year-over-year growth.
•Licensing and Other revenue was $235 million, including $218 million relating to the patent sale.
•Non-GAAP operating profit was $35 million and GAAP operating loss was $11 million.
•Total cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments increased by $91 million to $578 million, with the first instalment of $170 million received from the patent sale.
•Net cash generated from operating activities in the quarter was $99 million.

I can't make any sense of that. Like it was translated from Chinese or something. Those numbers don't add up. But that's pretty heavy volume in the AH's, there were 20K blocks going at the ask so.... beats me. But if you subtract that $218M, that puts operating revenue at $155M, which is a $6m MISS.

Readers beware.
Morning! Yes, Joby and Blackberry were all over Social getting promoted. Carvana has a bigger following than GME.
 
Morning! Yes, Joby and Blackberry were all over Social getting promoted. Carvana has a bigger following than GME.
Lol... Blackberry. Their Quarterly is what I post. What kind of bs is that? I looked this morning, that letter is all they filed with the SEC. How can someone buy a stock, I mean aside from the momo wsb's types, but I mean actually invest in a company, without a financial statement. No wonder these lawyers all start class-actions.
 
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