OK....
Some more on SNAP as I have been doing more digging.
Here's a potential problem.
They held off instituting a bunch of changes in Q4 so as not to disrupt the system during their advertisers' most important quarter. IE, leave well enough alone for now, but we know we can improve, so all these things we've been working on, they get rolling in Q1.
Uh-huh.
As in "unproven" things?
>>>That worries me.
Many of these changes center around better optimization of ML, customer conversion, etc. A lot of behind the scenes stuff. This could be a big headwind for this quarter's numbers imo. The analysts are gonna focus on how these changes are working. I think it'll be too early to definitively tell.
There's one more thing... they had an invite only investor meeting on Feb 16th at their HQ. Within 2.5 days, the stock went from $11.20 to $9.80 ish. A 10% drop while the QQQ's had a relatively normal .8% drop.
But if you look at a 5 minute chart, you'll see that drop started at would I would assume was the actual end of that meeting. IE 2:20PM est, 11:20 Pacific. Apparently some analysts/investors there didn't like what they heard and couldn't get on their phones fast enough. Speculation my part I guess, but that's what it looks like to me looking at that chart. But I wasn't there.
There has also been some large blocks of put buying at the ask over the last week. I don't like that either.
In a nutshell, for anyone reading this... proceed with caution. This might be another one of those quarters that does not impress. That $8.20 lower limit.... after my last 2 hours of DD into the obscure things no one else looks at... could easily happen.
It's $10.40 now. Nice run from $10 earlier I guess... but if anyone is playing it, I'd take some off before the close.
jmho