My Call & I am the ONLY one on the street... is that Core CPI actually rose above 5%.
5.2%<-- That will freak everybody out. Even 5% is a problem, 4.8 would be much better received... but keep in mind that the Fed feels everything they have done so far is in the system and we are still at a very high core number!
A government report Wednesday is forecast to show the consumer price index climbed 3.1% from a year ago, the smallest advance since March 2021, largely due to lower prices at the gasoline pump. Such a result would leave the headline CPI measure down almost 2 percentage points in just two months.
However, once volatile energy and food costs are stripped out, core CPI is seen rising 5% from a year ago. While that would be the smallest annual increase since late 2021, it’s still more than double the Fed’s goal, based on a different inflation metric.
The June inflation readout follows a number of recent reports that underscore a resilient economy, despite 5 percentage points worth of interest-rate hikes over the past year. Friday’s jobs report showed a healthy, albeit smaller-than-expected, increase in payrolls as well as firmer wage growth.