The federal funds futures market on Friday was pricing in a 46% chance of a cut at the Fed's March meeting, and a nearly 80% chance of a cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Chance of a rate cut in March is 0%//
What will happen when 46% of the people recognize that?
This is really our only problem now. These stupid people. Higher For Longer. Repeat after me.
Many investors believe stocks can continue rising in the weeks and months ahead, with the S&P 500 just 4% from making a fresh all-time high.
Past rate cycles have shown that stocks tend to climb during the period when monetary policy is “on hold.” The S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.1% in periods that the Fed has paused its rate-hiking cycle and before the central bank’s first cut, according to an analysis of nine such periods by ClearBridge Investments.
The S&P 500’s rally has brought it back to around where it stood when the central bank last raised rates in July, "suggesting there could be upside" from current levels, ClearBridge strategists said in a Dec 4 blog post.
When we started this whole process of raising rates and folks were freaking out.. I repeatedly said it's when they start lowering that we have to worry. In fact my investments are timed to be pulled when we actually cut.
That is your imperfect timing mechanism / That and the election.
At the same time, a period of strong gains often sees stocks continuing to push ahead for months, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at The Carson Group. The S&P 500’s 8.9% gain in November put it in the 20 best-performing months since 1950, Detrick wrote in a recent report.
The index was higher a year later 80% of the time after those exceptional months, rising 13.3% on average, according to Detrick.
Oh boy... 13% from here would be what?
5,985<-- WTF is my math right.... /// I'm not sure at all now what our year end target 2024 should be....
The Chance of a rate cut in March is 0%//
What will happen when 46% of the people recognize that?
This is really our only problem now. These stupid people. Higher For Longer. Repeat after me.
Many investors believe stocks can continue rising in the weeks and months ahead, with the S&P 500 just 4% from making a fresh all-time high.
Past rate cycles have shown that stocks tend to climb during the period when monetary policy is “on hold.” The S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.1% in periods that the Fed has paused its rate-hiking cycle and before the central bank’s first cut, according to an analysis of nine such periods by ClearBridge Investments.
The S&P 500’s rally has brought it back to around where it stood when the central bank last raised rates in July, "suggesting there could be upside" from current levels, ClearBridge strategists said in a Dec 4 blog post.
When we started this whole process of raising rates and folks were freaking out.. I repeatedly said it's when they start lowering that we have to worry. In fact my investments are timed to be pulled when we actually cut.
That is your imperfect timing mechanism / That and the election.
At the same time, a period of strong gains often sees stocks continuing to push ahead for months, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at The Carson Group. The S&P 500’s 8.9% gain in November put it in the 20 best-performing months since 1950, Detrick wrote in a recent report.
The index was higher a year later 80% of the time after those exceptional months, rising 13.3% on average, according to Detrick.
Oh boy... 13% from here would be what?
5,985<-- WTF is my math right.... /// I'm not sure at all now what our year end target 2024 should be....
