Gasp! It is possible....

Babak · Nov 22, 2002

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={51C9E488-5DAA-4197-B943-9A5FE83E9E88}&siteid=mktw

"A new academic study has found that a not-insignificant number of investment newsletters are able to successfully time the stock market."

[this is especially for our resident EMH'er, vlad]

BKuerbs · Nov 22, 2002

The paper, upon which the article is based, may be found here: http://www.eea-esem.com/papers/eea-esem/eea2002/1947/newsletters paper.pdf

Regards

Bernd Kuerbs

Babak · Nov 22, 2002

Thanks. Much appreciated

...but I can't download it. Is it just me or is something wrong with the link?

BKuerbs · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from Babak:

Thanks. Much appreciated

...but I can't download it. Is it just me or is something wrong with the link?

Works fine for me. Try it this way: copy and paste this string into your browser address window "http//www.eea-esem.com/papers/eea-esem/eea2002/1947/newsletters%20paper.pdf" and remove quotes.

Regards

Bernd Kuerbs

trdrmac · Nov 22, 2002

Babak,

If you right click on the link and do save target as and put it in a file folder you should be able to view it using Adobe Reader.

For some reason about 2 months back I started getting this error message when I tried opening PDF files on my computer.

rtstrading · Nov 22, 2002

Investment advisors as rated by Investors Intelligence, found that only 28.4% were bullish, and 43.2% were bearish.

Wow, what a little rally will do to the sentiment.....

currently, bulls - 49.4%!
bears - 24.7% The bearish number is just off the 5 year low of 22.6%.

The letter writers were all wrong once again at the botttom, and now have swung 180 to the bullish side. What does this tell you about the current rally continuing? Right

ArchAngel · Nov 22, 2002

Babak -

Be sure you have the latest Adobe Acrobat Reader version installed on your computer and in order to open a PDF in place in your browser, you have to be allowing ActiveX object activation and scripting in your browser option settings.

Babak · Nov 22, 2002

Thanks guys. It works now. Must have been a connection (ISP) issue of some kind.

Getting back to the topic at hand. I did a similar research paper in my last year of bachelors. Similar in that both my paper and this one tackles 'stickiness'....something which simply should not exist (theoretically).

I got an A+ in case you cared.

vvv · Nov 22, 2002

Quote from Babak:

I got an A+ in case you cared.

that's good

question re this study:

wouldn't just about any ole method, including dart throwing and it's cousins, have made money the last 10 years?

Babak · Nov 30, 2002

vvv,

you're absolutely right. The study covered about 20 years worth of data (mostly a bull market interrupted by some small bear mkts).

But when I did the study I compared and measured my strategy (stickiness) through Jensen's Alpha, Sharpe ratios, etc.

It outperfomed (even after taking risk into account). It was horribly complex with formulas flying around everyewhere.

I think there was a student t distribution in there somewhere also.