Gasoline curve

[TraDaToR]

Hello,

Is the curve normal for summer expiries this year? We have Apr > May > Jun > Jul? I thought a typical year was more like Apr < May < Jun > Jul > Aug ...

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from TraDaToR:
----curve normal....
----summer expiries this year?

Iran may be messing up the "normal" price relationships. The market could be discounting something else too. :eek:

 

[MarketOwl]

Brent crude oil is in deep backwardation, so it is trumping any seasonal tendencies for gasoline prices. Since last year, gasoline has much tighter correlation with Brent than WTI crude.

 

[bone]

Can you get access to the Platt's daily cash market postings; Bloomberg has them as well - look at the daily Gulf Coast refining metrics. I like the Bloomberg Crude Netbacks function ( what you really want is like a cash forward crack spread curve ).

 

[ogarbitrage]

For the sake of discussion, here (right chart) are the current curves for CL, RB, and HO out to F13. The 321 Crack spread chart on the left is the 321 crack curve with a 1-month processing time.

 

[TraDaToR]

Thanks guys,

Is that a normal shape for the crack curve?

 

[ogarbitrage]

I don't think so. But to echo marketowl, I think the WTI energy complex has been off kilter since the WTI/BRT decoupling.

 

[ogarbitrage]

Trad, a better look at the RB curve: