Gargantuan Head and Shoulders Top in the Dow - Dow 2000 target

[Trader.Fighter]

Now just a question : how many times have you traded just one and only one thing? There are some traders out there "killing it" with simple moving average crossovers...
but it took them a lot of "elbow sweat" to get there... a simple moving average crossover strategy...

Good stuff, agree.

 

[dbphoenix]

The Dow in completely doomed. The neckline is around 8,000, top of head is around 14,000, which would put the minimum price target at 2000.

I jest. No worries, the pattern failed, this chart goes to 2010. But seriously, what part of this is not legit? I am just starting to work on my CMT materials and therefore not an expert on H&S patterns, but (other than volume) it seems a lot like one.

Of course, it has not broken the neckline, so it could only be a tentative pattern. But what else is missing?

Seems like most people (a) didn't read your second paragraph and/or (b) didn't notice that you left off the last three years.

Patterns exist because people see bunnies in clouds. And there is an oooo factor among the unsophisticated that prompts them to view pattern people as experienced and knowledgeable. But when it comes to evidence and reliability, problems arise.

Be that as it may, patterns -- such as they are -- exist due to behavioral dynamics. The so-called Head & Shoulders is no different. But the H&S is a story of greed and desperation and panic which cannot be told without volume. And you don't have anywhere near the necessary volume. So it evolves into nothing more than a series of higher highs.

If the materials you're using stress patterns, perhaps it's not too late to get a refund.

 

[Trader.Fighter]

If the materials you're using stress patterns, perhaps it's not too late to get a refund.

You use channels extensively, they are also patterns.

 

[dbphoenix]

You use channels extensively, they are also patterns.

Proper channels are based on behavioral dynamics. They are not bunnies in clouds.

 

[Trader.Fighter]

Proper channels are based on behavioral dynamics. They are not bunnies in clouds.

Still considered part of the patterns family.

 

[d08]

The second trough of neckline is lower than the first, typically those don't play out. Oh yeah, it's not complete until the neckline is broken, it might just become a downward sloping channel.

 

[kut2k2]

... There are some traders out there "killing it" with simple moving average crossovers...
but it took them a lot of "elbow sweat" to get there... a simple moving average crossover strategy...

This is BS. Nobody is "killing it" with simple MA crossovers. Sure they work in bull markets ... what trend method doesn't? But as a long-term strategy you'll be lucky to break even.

 

[Clubber Lang]

this is bs. Nobody is "killing it" with simple ma crossovers. Sure they work in bull markets ... What trend method doesn't? But as a long-term strategy you'll be lucky to break even.

+1000000000000

 

[Clubber Lang]

Now just a question : how many times have you traded just one and only one thing?QUOTE]

I used to do 80%+ of my trading with one stock exclusively for entire years.
1999 ORCL
2000 INTC
2001 CSCO
2002-2003 QQQ

After that the lower intraday volatility combined with the rise of HFT made it pointless to trade only one stock.

 

[dbphoenix]

Still considered part of the patterns family.

If you like. If you see no difference now, perhaps you will in future.