Gap Up tomorrow morning

Quote from nwbprop:

Today, we tested the lower side of my IT trend in the ES. We bounced right off of it at the 1:30 5 min bar. I knew there was an IT right line there but i was not sure if it was going to cruise through it or bounce off of it. Coudl you maybe explain how one would use an anticipatory way to decipher if it is going to break through it or bounce off the IT line.

On to the subject of this thread. We bounced off of the right side trend line and rallied to a resistance point at 53. We then came off into the close and closed at 49. Based on what i understand, since the long IT is still in tact and we are not near resistance(53), we should gap up tomorrow no further than 53.

I still eagerly await your response to the Q's i had when i started this thread.

Anybody elses input would be greatly appreciated also.

thanks.
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Day seven tomorrow on the IT trend. H/L looks like 162.1 down to 148.3.

the 162.1 is close to the top of the range which it bounced off off 26 JAN and whichit huggee for six days beginning 11FEB (lateral trend on R)

So the IT picture is that we are now starting a FTP were the bars will have bottoms pull up for a few days. This means a narrower H/L range to expect as it goes along as we stay in the long IT trend.

What is the effect of a FTP on a long trend that is at the top of the R. We get to make some money.

I use the INDU (2 min) with a one unit MA of YM04H as a leading indicator of ES. this indicator is in same place as ES IT.

You post today points out that since my post that you reer to and your post, we have had an IT trend just taping along on the daily chart of ES. NOW marks the end of taping since the left channel exceeds the top of R from now on.

We are going into volatility compression (daily). so watch volume on a daily prorata Use the % on the unusual of qcharts to rough it out.

I sold all contracts (Covered a long) on last bar. I am not in a postion trade this evening.

Q1. how do I know....... We are starting end effects of the IT, so I am in a watch the sequences unfold scenario. The four subsets of possibilities are the pair where things continue trends and the pair where flaws are injected.

Here is my take: The FTP means that the channel traverse is going to fail. That means a short, or lateral IT will be in order. History gave us a lateral followed by a short.

to make a BO down takes volume. there will not be enough volume over night. The next shot of volume will come in the am. No BO down on high am volume gives us a lateral IT trend whwere we run up and test the top of R. we run the width of the current IT to get there. To have a BO on the top of R we will need more volume than the traverse required. Hard to get that as bars after bar is eaten up on the opening 7 to 13 to 19 bars.

So a dull day unfolds. I am targetting 800 bucks a day on a beginner account where some scaling 1 to 2 contracts and an occassional reversal is handled successfully. 600 bucks is more likely tomorrow.

To clinch the work up for you, I suggest that you be on line before DJ04H opens at 8:20 EST. you can make as much then for an hour and exit as an over night hold would get you with a just before or after 9:30 EST would get you.

Q2 .....53....... I don't weight the pm as you did. It's IT and the top of R running the interday show. The IT range runs intraday. Volume runs BO's. BO's come within the day for just making money (seven today, most followed by FR's). Getting a BO out of the IT is going to be a toughy. but at least you get a point 1 today to start the ball rolling as the IT gets end effects started. You can go for a lift off the right IT line over night; that is a prodent play. the compression caused by the FTP starting just makes it a play where I check in before 8:20EST to see how DJ04H made it through the night.

This political stuff can be a little influencing. If Cheney gets canned or the Secy of state resigns, or if we get nailed on Haiti miscues, or if the three factions of Iraq (Sunnis, Shiites, and Turgs) get tribal, or if Haliburton goes deeper into getting caught. or if the Pres screws up in the field by not having the right 3 by 5 card. All of these things inprove making money and help IT BO's.

Who knows maybe Doonsberry is going to send a check to the USO, even.

It will be an M or W day tomorrow. Four trends and some BO's to nailabout 600 bucks with a beginner account.

Nice post. It is a critical time vis a vis end effects of the IT.
 
you can see that the low occurred after 8:20 at about 8:40 from there you had a 2 point move into the open.

This is an IT FBO and the market is still riding the right line at the open.exiting at 147.2 puts you on the idelines waiting for the am synch and entry. Any bars over 5 ticks can be played as high volatility stalls should there not be a super volume push.

Volume opens in the 10 to 12.5K range which is sufficient for trending.


The target is 600 bucks for beginners trading 1 or 2 contracts.
 
Obviously overnight trading is more risky; just check the margin requirements as a rough measure

Grob,

Isn't the margin still a daytrade in the overnight?......isn't passing from one session to the next used to determine the full margin vs. some firms more liberal daytrade margin or "within the same session" margin?

Michael B.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Obviously overnight trading is more risky; just check the margin requirements as a rough measure

Grob,

Isn't the margin still a daytrade in the overnight?......isn't passing from one session to the next used to determine the full margin vs. some firms more liberal daytrade margin or "within the same session" margin?

Michael B.
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the margin shifts in IB at about 15:46. A is ordinarily taken out there if he has a minimal account. Most ET'er's use large ratios of sidelined money compared to cash in market so they just get carried into the overnight margin without a consideration.
 
Today I scaled in long. The net gain was 125 bucks with exit at 48.1. This is 20% of the daily goal.

Watch the Ari Kiev video on the merits of setting goals.


we are inthe high volatility stall I mentioned befre and that was the basis of my exit. I did not reverse. To make 475 more in trades will not be difficult if we BO. If not there will be FBO's that perform as FR's.

we have a 2.2 range on this high volatility lateral stall. Making 50% of each half cycle is a good rhythmic way to work through the am into midday centering for a bracket reenry this aftrnoon.
 
I've completed two turns so far.

the first was 6 minutes long for 125 bucks by scaling as seen above.

the last was an exit @47.1 that lasted 22 minutes. It was a single contract with no scaling for an even 100 buck gain (2 pts).
I am now at 225 of 600 goal for day. I do not count the over night (8:40 to open) two points in the total.

All entries and exits are using the IB data today, DOM primarily for timing. The qcharts seems to be a mess. I monitor T&S in parallel with DOM on IB to confirm the timeliness of the two. IB clogs up usually at times of high volume. I am on cable feed.

he slo mo IT trend analysis is as we expected. Six consecutive high volume bars construe the test of the IT support (S). The market nature was short at that time.

The FBO retrace that is played by faders maybe was on high volume as well. This marks the return ot the trend emphasis to the FTP we started dealing with today. The top of R is the FTP value to have the BO arise from.

We are now cycling in midday period. we have a better than 3 point range topull rhythmic trades from.
 
We are now cycling in midday period. we have a better than 3 point range topull rhythmic trades from.

I'm getting it....

Always in...... washing fakes......finding range......sensitive to breakouts....

Thanks Grob....
 
I did another 21 minute cycle and scaled in at 45. and 45.3 then covered @ 46.2 on both for an 87.50 advance in profits. I am now at 312.50 on three turns, a little over half the goal.

The volume stinks at this point (below 4,500 contracts per bar so beginners have to sit it out and not trade on noise.

We are "riding the IT right line and the market "falls to the bottom of S with low volume. It advances on "long" volume.

13:00 is the next event for beginners. The BO from the low volume centering can be bracketed. It will take volume for a move eithr way.

Making half the goal in the morning is a normal expectation.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

We are now cycling in midday period. we have a better than 3 point range topull rhythmic trades from.

I'm getting it....

Always in...... washing fakes......finding range......sensitive to breakouts....

Thanks Grob....
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Yes Grob. I appreciate it. I am trying to confirm your entries and exits with my macd sequences.

I am going to whistler thursday but i hope to see you back in the chatroom health permitting.

Thanks.
 
Quote from Grob109:

I did another 21 minute cycle and scaled in at 45. and 45.3 then covered @ 46.2 on both for an 87.50 advance in profits. I am now at 312.50 on three turns, a little over half the goal.

The volume stinks at this point (below 4,500 contracts per bar so beginners have to sit it out and not trade on noise.

We are "riding the IT right line and the market "falls to the bottom of S with low volume. It advances on "long" volume.

13:00 is the next event for beginners. The BO from the low volume centering can be bracketed. It will take volume for a move eithr way.

Making half the goal in the morning is a normal expectation.
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The 45. should read 45.2; I apparently did not press hard enough on my wooden keyboard. At 12:15 we have been in the market 49 minutes and sidelined for 116 minutes. we have 312.50/2000 as a decimal percent of margin per contract. This is misleading because we use another contract occasionally to scale in.

The CCC has gone from C to C at his point. we are looking for one more stage now (centering, probably on 46.1). You can set up for BO with a bracket outside of the scalping values.

I am changing beginners for the pm trading.
 
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