If you let your deltas run you are still making the same bet, that actual vol is > then forecasted vol.
Would you say that you should let your deltas run more so when vol is expanding versus when vol is contracting?
If you let your deltas run you are still making the same bet, that actual vol is > then forecasted vol.
Would you say that you should let your deltas run more so when vol is expanding versus when vol is contracting?
You need to understand that the efficacy of either approach is 100% contingent on your ability to forecast future volatility.
Ok, this is starting to make more sense. This is the critical factor. You have to know how to forecast future volatility. What you never can know is when forecasted future volatility will equal actual volatility. The "letting your deltas run" is just a function of discrete versus continuous hedging. The less you let your deltas run, the closer you come to continuous hedging. Correct?
Think of continuous hedging as hedging every second or every single tick. As I said before, commissions and bid/ask spreads aside, both over time will converge to the same expected value.