Game Over Loss

hurricane_sh said:
Many thanks for all your very helpful feedback, really appreciated it... will read the replies again and again to understand better. Glad that I posted this thread.

Basically I scalp es with KD, volume and average price, I don't know what constitutes a trading system, I rely on feel a lot and don't have definite entry/exit signals, maybe it's just a trading method. I only trade outside the regular trading hours before this big loss. At the beginning of every trading day, I evaluate the overall trend of the day, if I think it's bearish, I will do more short selling.

Some of the errors I made and rules I broke:

1. Trade with my phone. Sometimes I trade while I'm outside. e.g. in restaurant, I thought it's fun. This time half of the trades were made while I was sightseeing, the biggest loss was over $600, I had a chance to get out with a small profit after I got home, but obviously I didn't have the correct feel about the market just by glancing at my phone every one hour. I think this is why I didn't take the chance to get out immediately.

New rule: only trade when I'm sitting in front of my desk. Trading should be serious and focused.

2. My evaluation of Friday's market is "could be very bearish", I should go short for most trades. For long positions, I should cut losses very quickly and no avg down. This is a rule I broke.

3. I had 7 winning days in a row, and the previous day was a lucky day, I settled for $90 profit because I think it's a dangerous day. Friday is more dangerous but somehow I took it less seriously. Usually after 4 or 5 winning days, I will tell myself a big loss is coming, it's wise to stop trading for one day, or must be very careful.


For now, I have set up $300 as my game over loss, I will have more losing days, but it should be better than a big loss. I have subscribed to button trader to enforce risk management, but I'm not sure if I will use it as my primary trading tool, I can't get used to its UI.
More...

Can you see yourself in operating room with brain surgeon, he bought the cracked glasses at dollar store cause they were cheaper, he is going to check out the hospital in between working on your brain, he wants to check out new nurse on 3rd floor, so he quickly does something to your brain and your right leg is now pointed to the ceiling bleeding out your brain but surgeon is having a convo with new nurse, HE is sightseeing. Unless you treat trading with respect and as a business, there is no place cept going down, only one who can enforce anything is you.

When you have made enough money for two lifetimes, then you can become eccentric and trade off smoke signals, people will think you are quirky, that will last for your 30 seconds but in mean time, this is your business, run it that way.
 
ES seems to become a lot more trendy in the past several days, even in quiet trading hours. As a day trader, I never take the proverb "trend is your friend" seriously, now I know better. I used to scalp es within a small range, but it doesn't work well with the current market, it's better to ride it when there is a trend, and one or two trades would be enough for a day.
 
hurricane_sh said:
ES seems to become a lot more trendy in the past several days, even in quiet trading hours. As a day trader, I never take the proverb "trend is your friend" seriously, now I know better. I used to scalp es within a small range, but it doesn't work well with the current market, it's better to ride it when there is a trend, and one or two trades would be enough for a day.
More...

So, is there a trend or is there not a trend? Do you plan to trade with or against the trend? How do you define a trend? If you know the answer to those questions you can answer how you would trade. This is what you need to figure out for yourself and your personality and beliefs before you can define rules for a system. Until you start with these you will just be gambling like playing roulette. Only the house (the market) wins at roulette in the long run.
 
I think I should post a follow-up.

After the $1726 loss, I made two big changes:
1. Never add to losers.
2. Always use one or two points stop loss order.

Here are the P&L of second half of June:
$159
$92
$161
-$99
-$273
$90
$172
-$41
-$1,485
-$963
-$1,470
-$439
$154
$103

The total loss of June is $4,464, it was a disaster. After I ditched these supposedly notorious bad habits, my trading actually got worse, much worse. I couldn't continue doing this, even these are good habits, but obviously they don't suit me. I changed back. I started adding to losers again, I don't use stop loss orders any more, I actually cut losses very very rarely. Since I only day trade, I close all positions at the end of the day, it's already a strategy of cutting loss.

Here is the result of July. It's quite common for me to have unrealized $1000+ loss, but most of them turned into profit, if I can add to losers more determinedly, sometimes when I turned a 1500 loss to 100 loss, I may close all positions.

P&L of July, total profit $3777, best month after my worst month.

$6
$9
$243
$130
$146
$268
$243
$134
$214
$89
-$146
$113
$383
$16
$306
-$170
-$261
$269
$457
$342
$568

Although I can add to losers more calmly, I never think it's a good way of trading. I often enter a trade too early, but when I enter a trade at the right time, I only take one point profit with one contract, my earning potential is very limited. If I can enter a trade at or after the reversal with 2 or 3 contacts and let it run a little bit longer, I may be able to turn my "small loss -> big loss -> small profit" process into a "being even -> big profit" process.

Hope I can have a few big winning days (1000+) soon, then I wouldn't worry big losses that much.
 
Last edited:
hurricane_sh said:
I think I should post a follow-up.

After the $1726 loss, I made two big changes:
1. Never add to losers.
2. Always use one or two points stop loss order.

Here are the P&L of second half of June:
$159
$92
$161
-$99
-$273
$90
$172
-$41
-$1,485
-$963
-$1,470
-$439
$154
$103

The total loss of June is $4,464, it was a disaster. After I ditched these supposedly notorious bad habits, my trading actually got worse, much worse. I couldn't continue doing this, even these are good habits, but obviously they don't suit me. I changed back. I started adding to losers again, I don't use stop loss orders any more, I actually cut losses very very rarely. Since I only day trade, I close all positions at the end of the day, it's already a strategy of cutting loss.

Here is the result of July. It's quite common for me to have unrealized $1000+ loss, but most of them turned into profit, if I can add to losers more determinedly, sometimes when I turned a 1500 loss to 100 loss, I may close all positions.

P&L of July, total profit $3777, best month after my worst month.

$6
$9
$243
$130
$146
$268
$243
$134
$214
$89
-$146
$113
$383
$16
$306
-$170
-$261
$269
$457
$342
$568

Although I can add to losers more calmly, I never think it's a good way of trading. I often enter a trade too early, but when I enter a trade at the right time, I only take one point profit with one contract, my earning potential is very limited. If I can enter a trade at or after the reversal with 2 or 3 contacts and let it run a little bit longer, I may be able to turn my "small loss -> big loss -> small profit" process into a "being even -> big profit" process.
More...

It's hard to take losses.
But it's harder to know could blow up.
 
Last edited:
hurricane_sh said:
but most of them turned into profit, if I can add to losers more determinedly, sometimes when I turned a 1500 loss to 100 loss,
More...

In volatility - this will work

Try it in a trending environment - you're dead - plain and simple



Learn the right way..., or keep suffering / muddling along

Thinking this will end good is straight up BS


As always - your choice..., your prerogative to tell me to stuff it up my ass

I hate seeing this..., but it ain't my money..., nor..., and more importantly..., my emotional capital


RN
 
Redneck said:
Learn the right way..., or keep suffering / muddling along

Thinking this will end good is straight up BS
More...
Thanks, I understand the risk. I'm learning to enter a trade after the reversal, and let the profit run a little longer. But overall, I'm comfortable with "buy low and sell high", it's very hard for me to "buy high and sell higher". Adding to losers is a remedy when I failed to buy at real low, it's not a usual strategy.

I often wonder if there really is "intraday trend", the trend seems to exist when looking back, but if you are in it, the trend can be changed at any time. To me, buying low (very low to be safer) is less risky than riding a trend.

I'm only talking about es day trading. For stocks or position trading, it could be completely different.
 
hurricane_sh said:
Thanks, I understand the risk. I'm learning to enter a trade after the reversal, and let the profit run a little longer. But overall, I'm comfortable with "buy low and sell high", it's very hard for me to "buy high and sell higher". Adding to losers is a remedy when I failed to buy at real low, it's not a usual strategy.

I often wonder if there really is "intraday trend", the trend seems to exist when looking back, but if you are in it, the trend can be changed at any time. To me, buying low (very low to be safer) is less risky than riding a trend.

I'm only talking about es day trading. For stocks or position trading, it could be completely different.
More...

I believe that there is intraday trend.
I tried to find an accurate indicator to find out market sentiment even a few month ago and
I eventually have found it.
I think applying the concept 'buy low and sell high' is a bit abstract if you don't know the current market sentiment.
The most safest way to trade is that you buy at higher low in bullish sentiment and sell at lower high in bearish sentiment.
 
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