Gambling?

TerryL,

The damages meant were damages caused by speculative tradings. Take USD/JPY for example. It went down to some 102.00 against the dollar a few years ago. That time, even BOJ had given up intervening. Such rate surely created damages as it hurt exporters, and in the end hurt the economy.

Oil, although not forex, also driven by speculative motives than reality. Do you think the conditions so dire to warrant a move from $30s to $55? I don't think so. And we all know who got cold feet on high oil prices...

Cheers!
 
My guess, if you took all speculators out of the market you would still see a panic run up. Don't forget when speculators themselves see the price as over inflated they'll go short, you gotta expect volatility right now speculators or not.
 
The move from $30 to $55 was more likely fuelled by speculation, not reflecting the reality. Okay, there are Iraqi wars, Norwegian strike, summer demand, YUKOS, etc, etc. But all those didn't happen simultaneously. One was on, then off, replaced by another. Sometimes two at a time. Summer's gone now, YUKOS matter seemed to have faded recently, Norwegian strike is not that critical to affect the market too much. Nigeria's internal conflict seemed to have subsided too. Iraq's blown pipeline almost always got repaired swiftly, so it shouldn't be a big deal.

All should point to a less than aggressive rally.

The above are merely temporary factors. So a fall from $55 was not something of a shock. It seems that the funds have booked their profits for now. But watch for negative news on oil, and when these news intensify, it should be a sign that another rally is coming up. Watch Bush's policy during his second term. Will he make a move on Iran? or Sudan? or none at all?

Cheers!
 
fuelled by speculation, not reflecting the reality.

That is exactly my point.

But then again, it is no surprise that it is human perception that drives markets. and humans are not know for their infallibilty.
 
Universal currency? Yes, it's called gold.

Mysticism and trading success have an inverse relationship. Terry, you'd be better served reading more Ayn Rand and less Hadiths and Fatwahs.
 
this is very amusing

how is gold a universal currency ?

and also, you will be surprised to learn hadiths are not mysticism, but then again, you cannot know, so believe what you believe.
 
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