this is probably a trivial news;
The gold price hardly moved.
Less sources, higher prices
------->
no significant change in sources,
no significant change in gold price
G7 To Ban Russian Gold Imports
- Thread starter Pinocchio
- Start date
this is probably a trivial news;
The gold price hardly moved.
Less sources, higher prices
------->
no significant change in sources,
no significant change in gold price
Commodities have been going down after initial run-up when the war started, even energy prices are still high. It could be a catalyst which would force Russia to default after all the sanctions.
Christ, I'm expecting America to default first. They already did so on August 15th, 1971.
As for catalysts, I would imagine in the binomial distribution somewhere, there is maybe a 5% chance a nuclear arm detonates at some point during the war.
I think THAT may just cause a sudden shock to everyone's little modeling-box.
It's ok to be wrong though. We can always just pull the LTCM excuse and say "Oh, THAT was a 10-sigma event, no way could I have predicated THAT! My modeling was perfect otherwise!"