FX via Wyckoff - GPB vs EUR

[hcour]

http://www.streamload.com/hcour/FX/GBP-EUR.GIF

4-hr charts.

As a relative newbie to FX I know there is a strong correlation between the EUR/USD & GBP/USD. I've also noticed on the intraday the GBP seems to lead the EUR sometimes:

In Oct both markets enter a trading-range. 10/13 there is a change of character of the relative relationship between the two -The GBP makes a higher-low and the EUR makes a lower-low. Both markets then rally to near the 200 period ema and react to 10/19, where the GBP springs the 10/13 low on a shallow test of the 10/12 low, while the EUR makes another lower-low, but a possible spring. On the rally to 10/21 the GBP makes a higher-high and breaks the now flattening 200p ma while the EUR makes a lower-high just below its still down-sloping 200p ma. The subsequent reaction is much more shallow on the GBP and the current rally speaks for itself rs-wise.

Harold

 

[1contract]

Hi hcour,

I'm curious about the volume on your chart. Since this is FX, I guess this is tick volume from one particular market maker. Do you find this works ok for the kind of trading you do?

Thanks,
1c

 

[hcour]

1c,

I was experimenting using the "volume" but I've stopped as of today since I haven't found it useful and don't think it is an accurate representation of the mkt. I think just using the currency futures vol is much better. I've also switched to MetaTrader4, which is far superior to VTrader as a charting program.

H

 

[hcour]

4hr and 15min charts.

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b313/Hcour/gbp-usd_4hr-15min2.gif

On the 15min at X & A price enters a long tight trading-range going sideways till B, an upthrust of the high at A followed by a shakeout at C of the X-low as price cycles from high-volatility to low and back to high w/in the TR. The subsequent rally is shallow, going sideways, and then D is an EOM down, widest spread since before X, breaking major support on both the 15min and the longer-term 4hr chart. The rally to E is classic backup to resistance on effort that does not follow-thru, then on the reaction another EOM down at F followed by another weak backup to converging resistance. A consolidation from G to H on very narrow spreads compared to E to G. The rally to I is a final backup, note on the 4hr the doji at this point, followed by a sharp break of support on a wide spread.

Harold

 

[KPCURRENCY]

What happened to this thread? Unike the principles it is based on, it has died. Friday 11/24/06......

Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) identifies two test bars at Value Area high (upper purple line) which acts as support. With no selling pressure from the professionals, the market is positioned to rise.