FX Speculator's Earnings Calls for Today and Tomorrow

[fxpeculator]

Long NTGR, PHM (Today AH), STRA, MSTR into earnings!


Drivers for each call:

NTGR

22% Short float, beat last QTR and spiked 22%, analyst research, technical picture (double top breakout). July 18 announcement of 70% growth in Asia in 05


PHM,

"Bubbelhead CNBC shorts" soaked into the stock and housing is still hot, earnings trend for builders is still bullish! Looking for 100 handle to act as a magnet with potential to follow TOL'
s footsteps and announce split.


STRA

Insider Buys, stock has been bullied and beaten to a pulp (selling overdone)

Director insider buy on May 25
Senior VP Insider Buy on June 9




MSTR


Low expectations, 30%+ short float, and following deals announced in QTR. Also, COGN announced they were not able to close big deals, I assume if the deals were on the table (open, not closed) someone had to close them. Believe MST may have got some of this business from COGN.


Deals announced this QTR:

(1) Cingular Deal announced April 26
(2)Container Store, announced May 5
(3) Finan Bank May 17
(4) JAL CARD
June 1
(5) Transportation Security Administration June 22
(6) Turkish Airlines June 22


From analyst at JMP: July 15

JMP Securities believes that MSTR may have repurchased about 2.2 mln shares of its common stock on the open market between March 31 and May 31, representing about 13% of its basic shares outstanding and 12% of its diluted shares outstanding. Firm says this repurchase is a positive signal for two main reasons: 1) it suggests the people with the best information about MSTR consider it to be significantly undervalued between $46-$55, and 2) the buyback is accretitive to earnings. Firm raises their 2005 est to $4.13 from $4.10 ($0.38 above consensus). Maintains Outperform and $75 tgt


The street and shorts are lining up massively against MSTR with Barney and a low tier broker downgrading today and the 30%+ short float soaked into the stock. I see the favorable risk reward here is a long and have slapped a long on into earnings.

 

[fxpeculator]

NTGR, MSTR, and STRA are tomorrow.

 

[fxpeculator]

2.30 on EPS and 3.29B revs against est of 2.09 EPS and 3.13 B revs. Raises guidance! Still pouring over report.


Stock split!

 

[The Kin]

What's your past record been like? There have been a couple people on here who have been able to predict earnings in advance as if they had insider information.

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from fxpeculator:

2.30 on EPS and 3.29B revs against est of 2.09 EPS and 3.13 B revs. Raises guidance! Still pouring over report.


Stock split!

From Briefing:


Live In Play


27-Jul-05
17:02 PHM Pulte Homes beats by $0.21; announces 2-for-1 Stock Split and 60% Increase in dvidend

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $2.30 per share, $0.21 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $2.09; revenues rose 30.8% year/year to $3.29 bln vs the $3.14 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY05, sees EPS of $10.00-10.50 vs. $10.12 consensus.

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from The Kin:

What's your past record been like? There have been a couple people on here who have been able to predict earnings in advance as if they had insider information.

The earnings plays have worked very well. Waiting to see how PHM turns out as shorts are not attacking it and I don't see any real potent spike yet. Guidance was a little light and conservative.


They announced a split as I had expected but was expecting more bullish guidance than this.

 

[fxpeculator]

STRA beat by 2 cents, 85 compared to Thomson at 83. The high estimate at Thomson was 84.

Revs were a little light, 55.2 vs Thomson at 55.39


Guidance was at 41 to 43 while Thomson was at 38 with a high estimate at 42.


This looks impressive if the street can get by the light revs which should be no problem as enrollments looks like they rebounded. Not much was expected here and STRA delivered so I am looking for a super spike today.

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from fxpeculator:

STRA beat by 2 cents, 85 compared to Thomson at 83. The high estimate at Thomson was 84.

Revs were a little light, 55.2 vs Thomson at 55.39


Guidance was at 41 to 43 while Thomson was at 38 with a high estimate at 42.


This looks impressive if the street can get by the light revs which should be no problem as enrollments looks like they rebounded. Not much was expected here and STRA delivered so I am looking for a super spike today.

Lehman was pretty bearish going into earnings so lets see if they get behind the stock.


From July 14:


Live In Play


14-Jul-05
08:10 STRA Strayer Education downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman (84.90 )

Lehman downgrades STRA to Equal-Weight from Overweight and trims their tgt to $91 from $92, due to their belief that the risk-reward outlook ahead of Q2 results is unfavorable. Firm says they lack confidence that STRA`s enrollments will bounce back strongly following disappointing results last qtr, and they believe that the probability of continued modest weakness (and likely negative estimate revisions) outweighs the probability of very strong enrollment results (and positive earnings revisions).

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from The Kin:

What's your past record been like? There have been a couple people on here who have been able to predict earnings in advance as if they had insider information.

BZH just beat on earnings and raised guidance nicely. I believe this bodes well for the builders today on the back on PHM's solid earnings, stock split, and 60% dividend increase.


* BZH sees FY05 $8.00-8.25, up from previous co g..Jul 28 06:32
BZH sees FY05 $8.00-8.25, up from previous co guidance of $7.00-7.25 vs $7.49 Reuters consensus


BZH prelim $2.50 vs $2.05 Reuters consensus; re..Jul 28 06:31
BZH prelim $2.50 vs $2.05 Reuters consensus; revs $1.29 bln vs $1.21 bln Reuters consensus.

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from fxpeculator:

STRA beat by 2 cents, 85 compared to Thomson at 83. The high estimate at Thomson was 84.

Revs were a little light, 55.2 vs Thomson at 55.39


Guidance was at 41 to 43 while Thomson was at 38 with a high estimate at 42.


This looks impressive if the street can get by the light revs which should be no problem as enrollments looks like they rebounded. Not much was expected here and STRA delivered so I am looking for a super spike today.

88.00 bid on STRA justed popped up in pre-market! Thats more than 3 pts higher than the close. Still looking for a super spike on STRA.