You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
FX short to mid-range frequency discretionary trading
- Thread starter amazingIndustry
- Start date
- Status
- Not open for further replies.
I would but I generally do not chase markets, if the pair trades back down by a bit but holds the lows and makes subsequently higher lows and highs then I will certainly look into it, thanks, though I probably feel more comfortable with a gbpaud long. It has clearly bottomed out and looks ripe for a break above its multi day high around 1.5252.
Btw, my algo strategies trade all 27 pairs (of the G8 ccys, well not all such as EURCHF but most) while I focus on a very few select pairs on the discretionary side.
But thanks for pointing me to that pair. You earned a medal, first constructive post in this thread ;-)
Btw, my algo strategies trade all 27 pairs (of the G8 ccys, well not all such as EURCHF but most) while I focus on a very few select pairs on the discretionary side.
But thanks for pointing me to that pair. You earned a medal, first constructive post in this thread ;-)
Quote from gmst:
Try EURAUD long for a day or two especially after today's AUD unemployment data. 50 pip stop, 70-150 pip target.
Quote from amazingIndustry:
how did this EURAUD long idea work out?
It obviously didn't work out. Price action was suggesting that just maybe we are putting in a short term bottom around 1.20. But, it seems we are going much lower eventually. Got stopped for a 50 pip loss.
Looking at the big picture, I can easily see EUR at or below 1.15 in couple of months. Spanish yields are back at historic highs - bailout rally is over for Spain at least. Claims in US have been going up steadily for weeks now, which is a pretty strong signal for down move in Spoos. My contention is that we are not going to break 1418 in ES for the yearly highs and will trade lower than 1375 in 2-4 weeks from now, when higher claims will start to show in indexes. It will translate into higher risk aversion and that will be a good opportunity for EUR to break 1.19 lows it established couple years back.
I did not post for couple days simply because the market looked terribly erratic this week, take a look at where prices traded in eurusd.
I think we should all completely write off correlations of equity markets with ANYTHING else (well maybe australian dollar...), equity markets have started to create a life of their own, its the new inflation protection asset class, no love for gold anymore, the real economy is crumbling. The last pillars on which a lot of professionals banked in terms of a revival of the real economy was housing and manufacturing. We have all seen in which toilet those numbers ended up this week. Stock brokers, investors, pension funds, well, anyone with a vested interest in equities is now loading their syringe with the deadly drug QE3, it look increasingly like the more negative economic news is coming out the higher equities trade in anticipation of QE3.
My take here is this: This current environment may just be one of the prime examples of complete market "irrational-ism". I believe the Fed will act ONLY when the real economy economy is accelerating its decent because they know full well that there is QE3, and after QE3 there is.....well......nothing. There is only the abyss left. It is the precisely same reason why ECB hesitates to re-start their bond buying program. No difference. Thus, I believe the market is expecting a timing for QE3 that the Fed cannot deliver, does not want to deliver because it would exhaust itself of all its remaining tools to support its mandate. Not that I believe they did a fine job at delivering on their mandate.
So where does that leave us? With patience! European politicians do what they do best, they take summer vacations just after they met at the EU summit in their hilarious belief they bought themselves a year or so. I think they inactivity and lack of urgency will be severely punished in due time. Until then the Euro is already heavily shorted and to be honest I do not see much to go for it until more euro-centric negative headlines hit the tape. To be honest I am eyeballing the Australian dollar right now, I believe it is way overvalued even against the dollar. Its life line, China, is in serious distress (even though they are professional at masking it), and stocks trade at very rich valuations given the current economic environment. As pointed out earlier it could go on for longer (the equity surge) but we may be close to a top in audusd.
This leaves me with patiently waiting for the right setup, sometimes its as simple as being around when the shit hits the fan and having the guts to pull the trigger or to start legging into a position.
I think we should all completely write off correlations of equity markets with ANYTHING else (well maybe australian dollar...), equity markets have started to create a life of their own, its the new inflation protection asset class, no love for gold anymore, the real economy is crumbling. The last pillars on which a lot of professionals banked in terms of a revival of the real economy was housing and manufacturing. We have all seen in which toilet those numbers ended up this week. Stock brokers, investors, pension funds, well, anyone with a vested interest in equities is now loading their syringe with the deadly drug QE3, it look increasingly like the more negative economic news is coming out the higher equities trade in anticipation of QE3.
My take here is this: This current environment may just be one of the prime examples of complete market "irrational-ism". I believe the Fed will act ONLY when the real economy economy is accelerating its decent because they know full well that there is QE3, and after QE3 there is.....well......nothing. There is only the abyss left. It is the precisely same reason why ECB hesitates to re-start their bond buying program. No difference. Thus, I believe the market is expecting a timing for QE3 that the Fed cannot deliver, does not want to deliver because it would exhaust itself of all its remaining tools to support its mandate. Not that I believe they did a fine job at delivering on their mandate.
So where does that leave us? With patience! European politicians do what they do best, they take summer vacations just after they met at the EU summit in their hilarious belief they bought themselves a year or so. I think they inactivity and lack of urgency will be severely punished in due time. Until then the Euro is already heavily shorted and to be honest I do not see much to go for it until more euro-centric negative headlines hit the tape. To be honest I am eyeballing the Australian dollar right now, I believe it is way overvalued even against the dollar. Its life line, China, is in serious distress (even though they are professional at masking it), and stocks trade at very rich valuations given the current economic environment. As pointed out earlier it could go on for longer (the equity surge) but we may be close to a top in audusd.
This leaves me with patiently waiting for the right setup, sometimes its as simple as being around when the shit hits the fan and having the guts to pull the trigger or to start legging into a position.
Not sure about the timing, I am a horrible forecaster, I am a lot better and try to hone my skills in reacting to what I currently see.
1.15 in a couple of months is a pretty safe bet, though, I would go with that. In the meantime I will pray every day to get over with the QE3 overhang, Bernanke, please just do it and get it over with. Let markets for once in years trade at rational risk premiums.
1.15 in a couple of months is a pretty safe bet, though, I would go with that. In the meantime I will pray every day to get over with the QE3 overhang, Bernanke, please just do it and get it over with. Let markets for once in years trade at rational risk premiums.
Quote from gmst:
It obviously didn't work out. Price action was suggesting that just maybe we are putting in a short term bottom around 1.20. But, it seems we are going much lower eventually. Got stopped for a 50 pip loss.
Looking at the big picture, I can easily see EUR at or below 1.15 in couple of months. Spanish yields are back at historic highs - bailout rally is over for Spain at least. Claims in US have been going up steadily for weeks now, which is a pretty strong signal for down move in Spoos. My contention is that we are not going to break 1418 in ES for the yearly highs and will trade lower than 1375 in 2-4 weeks from now, when higher claims will start to show in indexes. It will translate into higher risk aversion and that will be a good opportunity for EUR to break 1.19 lows it established couple years back.
I sold aud at solid levels (1.0420) and intend to keep the trade on over the weekend. I realize it was not the best horse to bet on with eur down over 1% as we speak. I am somewhat surprised to see Spain getting squeezed again this early, yield spreads to bunds at extreme levels. But too late to get engaged now, I have a feeling there will be plenty good levels to enter on the short side next week. We have now moved from week/months cycles to days, is the end game suddenly nearer than we all thought? I doubt it but its definitely one of those days that makes up for all (and much more) the failed attempts this week to get engaged on the momentum side of things that never materialized.
Have a good weekend all.
Have a good weekend all.
Quote from amazingIndustry:
I sold aud at solid levels (1.0420) and intend to keep the trade on over the weekend. I realize it was not the best horse to bet on with eur down over 1% as we speak. I am somewhat surprised to see Spain getting squeezed again this early, yield spreads to bunds at extreme levels. But too late to get engaged now, I have a feeling there will be plenty good levels to enter on the short side next week. We have now moved from week/months cycles to days, is the end game suddenly nearer than we all thought? I doubt it but its definitely one of those days that makes up for all (and much more) the failed attempts this week to get engaged on the momentum side of things that never materialized.
Have a good weekend all.
I need 1.034 desperately... what's you view on a strike touch expiring on the 27th, NY fix?
you need to ask the crystal ball not me, I am not in the business of forecasting, wrong guy.
But honestly, I do not find your question makes too much sense. What do you actually like to know, what I think about one-touch options, or what I think about where aud trades in a week, or whether I am curious why you need 1.034 "desperately"? I am much more curious why not Carnalian Bay anymore ;-)
But honestly, I do not find your question makes too much sense. What do you actually like to know, what I think about one-touch options, or what I think about where aud trades in a week, or whether I am curious why you need 1.034 "desperately"? I am much more curious why not Carnalian Bay anymore ;-)
Quote from atticus:
I need 1.034 desperately... what's you view on a strike touch expiring on the 27th, NY fix?
Quote from amazingIndustry:
you need to ask the crystal ball not me, I am not in the business of forecasting, wrong guy.
But honestly, I do not find your question makes too much sense. What do you actually like to know, what I think about one-touch options, or what I think about where aud trades in a week, or whether I am curious why you need 1.034 "desperately"? I am much more curious why not Carnalian Bay anymore ;-)
Sorry, I don't speak ebonics.
I suppose the correct answer would be the mid on the touch (no touch) market to term (1/5 against, 20/100), but perhaps you familiarity ends with "soft exotics", wtf those are. I'd like to see that 1.042 fill on your short.
California taxes suck.
- Status
- Not open for further replies.