FX short to mid-range frequency discretionary trading

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On one side the market looks very heavy and any good news out of Greece did not calm Spanish bond markets nor the euro. On the other side, how much worse can it get? I mean it WILL get much worse that’s for sure, question is how much more bad news can come out at this point in time? Ireland claimed to want to re-negotiate their bailout package, Greece wants, Portugal wants, Spanish bond yields north of 7%, Italian ones north of 5%, Market is still ultra-short euros.

Equity markets actually looking pretty good in light of all of this, I have no idea why the market even speculates that the Fed this week might engage in any further easing measures, there is in my book no way this is gonna happen, which may actually disappoint US equity markets quite a bit, at least that is my read of the whole situation. But how will it impact fx markets? Aud may go down with it, that’s what I think, so looking to position myself short aud today or tomorrow may not be such bad idea. Euro? Its like two very powerful forces battling each other right now, and I may
 
Perfect analysis, horrible execution...

Price action panned out exactly as I had described earlier but I just did not jump on board the long side. One reason was that I do not actively trade US hours (I live in the Asian time zone), only until later that evening did EURUSD actually break out to the upside. Another reason is the pending FOMC statement due Wed. But no excuses, I missed this move, there was certainly quite a bit of short covering behind this move and once it got going there was no looking back.

Not often that this pair breaks out in US market hours (one reason I do not trade fx much during US hours, most of the moves develop in late Asian, early European markets and then just either level off or just softly continue with current momentum into US hours.

What I find interesting is that a lot of Arabs seem to be behind the most recent EURUSD buys. Could it be that they are unable to manipulate oil prices directly but expect to flatten the waves by keeping the euro from crashing?

Anyway, off to new pastures, I still believe the market is way overpricing Fed easing measures, Goldman being the primary bitch doing the marketing deed. I have not initiated any shorts in AUD yet (thank God) but would love to get engaged later today, given that price action will look right, I do not believe the market will get what it expects out of Bernanke at least not to the extent demanded.
 
forgot to update on this one but in case anyone wondered, a huge EURAUD sell order washed out a lot of players at the London fix, me included. I would have gotten stopped out most likely anyway later on but not with this much slippage.

Quote from amazingIndustry:

still figuring out what just hit the tape (other than London fix) but market blipped in a split of a second from 1.2585 to 1.2565, got filled on my stop at 1.2574,
handing me a total loss of -56pips (traded twice the usual size)

total down to +258pips

will rest things for today, clearly not a good start into the new week.
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EURUSD has traded in a 40 pip range all day more or less.

It looks to me as if risk is to the downside with ES trading around 1350. There is a good change the market will correct a bit to the downside pre FOMC, I still believe it is hopelessly overpricing further easing measures today. I decided not to sell AUD before the FOMC statement comes out but should we see an initial spike in AUDUSD right after the release then I would love to sell some and add to the position if/when it makes its way back down. USDJPY could get a real push up today if Bernanke disappoints (equity markets)...
 
EURUSD is holding up remarkably well, given the slight risk off in US equities. Mostly supported by the short covering in EURJPY which had a very good run (most yen crosses)

My bet though is that it will catch up with the little more offered tone in equities prior to FOMC. I may obviously be wrong thus a pretty tight stop loss of 18-25 pips.
 
the pair seems to be unable to break the intra-day trend, taking off all positions at 1.2700

Quote from amazingIndustry:

tighten my stop back to 1.2725.

Currently holding 4x short, at avg price 1.27135
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