FX Short Term Trading - Black Swan Protection

plan on it happening ..........part of the game.

it happens in all markets, not just forex.

concentrate on the other 99.9 % of the time that the world is more or less normal .

in the big picture, it is just a small bump in the road.

s
 
Quote from Wallace:

rmorse said it all


one black swan event was 911, the destruction of the NY Twin Towers on Sep 11/01
the spot eurusd continued to trade but currency futures were closed for a week along
with other markets, a gap down on the $ re-open but not a lot and new trends began in
the opposite directions afterwards. much larger drops occurred with the S&P 500 and
DJIA and while the Dow didn't quite 'close' the gap the 500 did

a smaller black swan that saw the euro open down 120 ? pips was the capture of
Saddam Hussein which occurred on a Saturday; FXCM announced they'd honored all
Stops and the price recovered anyway during the Sun/Mon session

central banks' actions in the markets usually to buy their currency generates large
price swings even when they announce they'll be doing them, but gives the chance
to be out of the market, jpy has seen some large moves

if Greece or Eire were to suddenly announce they were leaving the EU or dropping the
euro - essentially defaulting, that would have a major impact on the euro, although
I think the euro might already be in a downtrend were such a thing to happen

Regarding some of the more "predictable" market moving events, I accept those as part pf the trading risk. Part of my pre-trade checks are to review and note previous and upcoming events that may move the day's market. I have the luxury of treating this like a second job so if the days volatility appears to be extreme I won't risk my account.

My overriding concern is for the truely unpredictable macro events that can shock the markets, like an attack on POTUS or another 9/11.

I've analyze my risk exposure and based on current account equity, leverage and position sizing a 200 pip swing would result in a 20% hit. That's IF my stops, which are very tight, weren't effective.

Thanks everyone for your input. I feel pretty good about the plan I've got so I'll continue on as I have. I suppose we just have accept some risk.
 
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