Fx futures Journal

romik · Nov 22, 2006

Just a quick one, according to hourly WW pattern, now there is a short possibility on ESZ6 (1407.50) with profit target @ 1401. (this signal on hourly is not an intraday pattern though, so I can't comment on probability).

B1 I can move this to ESJ if you wish.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

Good luck Romik.

b1s2 in this JPY trade you mentioned you would trail the stop. How far do you trail the stop ? Is this something your system does automatically or do you adjust every evening based on the chart itself ?

(I asked you something in the live cattle thread also)

Thanks !

I trail the stop until the market tells me to get out. The sky could be the limit. I don't want to cut myself short when I am on a winner. I suspect there are folks who took 20 pips already and got out. I am not like that. Also, as I mentioned before, this is the second leg of the bottoming on the daily chart, so the move has more potential than the first leg. We'll see.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

We're getting a little overdone on the 240. However, I would be more apt to buy a pullback unless there is obvious reversal. Until obvious reversal, I treat everything as a pullback. If the week were to end this way, it may be enough to start a trend change on the weekly as well. The Yen is a currency that has the most potential for explosive moves of 200 pips or more in a day. Do I think it will finish today at .8700? I have no way of knowing, but I would like it to certainly!

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from romik:

B1, have you heard of a wolfewave before? Today's' BRD on 3 min chart could have been timed to perfection using the strategy, coupled with triple BRD on MACD and short grails (also on 3) made a perfect plan with very clear entry and exit points. Here is a chart.

Establishing points 1, 2, 3, 4 two lines are drawn. 1 through 3 and 2 through 4. After that a line is drawn through 1 and 4. When price hits upper horizontal line a short is initiated at point 5 and target is at the point when price hits line running through points 1 and 4 (RED ARROW IS A COVER POINT). One does not need to use this for entries, but to determine an exit it is very useful, especially when longer trend is in the opposite direction of the trade.

I think I was just unlucky with my trade, as 3 min BRD has worked perfectly, 10 min one failed.

EDIT: Essentially it is a timed H&S pattern, wolfewave simply calculates entry and exit points, which otherwise are mostly approximate values, based on what the indicators are showing and/or price action.

EDIT 2: Same set-ups were present yesterday in the ES (long) and just now short on ES, all using 3 min chart.

I can see the pattern as you drew it. However, I steer clear of these wave patterns because I think it's too easy to place the lines where the trader thinks they "should be" --It's open to interpretation etc. I much prefer my mathematical indicators and reaction highs/lows

Optionpro007 · Nov 22, 2006

Understood. At what time do you move your stop to break even then ?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I trail the stop until the market tells me to get out. The sky could be the limit. I don't want to cut myself short when I am on a winner. I suspect there are folks who took 20 pips already and got out. I am not like that. Also, as I mentioned before, this is the second leg of the bottoming on the daily chart, so the move has more potential than the first leg. We'll see.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

Understood. At what time do you move your stop to break even then ?

Breakeven is never a consideration in placing a stop unless breakeven is at a point on the chart that coincides with a good stop placement outside the noise. Too much emphasis is placed on the breakeven strategy. The emphasis should be on limiting losses, not breaking even.

romik · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I can see the patter as you drew it. However, I steer clear of these wave patterns because I think it's too easy to place the lines where the trader thinks they "should be" --It's open to interpretation etc. I much prefer my mathematical indicators and reaction highs/lows

I understand it and I understand what you will probably say now regarding too much info, but all I was trying to point out is that based on grail/divergence entries exit is also pretty much an approximate value, based on either a personal target or current market conditions be it indicator/price. I have noticed that when there are grails at that time this WW pattern also becomes visible and if one was to try and determine where to exit, then this is a possible solution

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

<img src=http://www.nidcd.nih.gov/staticresources/health/education/teachers/images/siren.gif>

Yes, I was stopped at .8747 for a very small loss on the swing Canadian short. I am still short Canadian on the daily chart for now and those positions are still profitable--for now.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from romik:

I understand it and I understand what you will probably say now regarding too much info, but all I was trying to point out is that based on grail/divergence entries exit is also pretty much an approximate value, based on either a personal target or current market conditions be it indicator/price. I have noticed that when there are grails at that time this WW pattern also becomes visible and if one was to try and determine where to exit, then this is a possible solution

If it works for you, use it. It's too much info for me.

Optionpro007 · Nov 22, 2006

It's amazing how you make trades around your long term trades.

When I grow up I want to be like you..

btw, I know you don't really pay attention to funnymentals but CAD's explosive move to the upside the last few years has been attributed to the soaring price of oil, because of the vast quantities of oil discovered in Alberta, Canada, which by some estimates could rival Saudi Arabia's.

It is expected for CAD to follow QM or at least it had until a couple of months ago.

I see QM starting a new leg up now, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a sustained small rally in the CAD for the next couple of months.

jmo.

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Yes, I was stopped at .8747 for a very small loss on the swing Canadian short. I am still short Canadian on the daily chart for now and those positions are still profitable--for now.