Fx futures Journal

Slept in today and missed the short breakout on the Pound at around 6:35 Am this morning. Rising wedge bottom seemed to have formed over the past 40 minutes. I may take a new short position if it breaks down below 1.8720

Edit: Actually it broke above the short term swing hig and looks to move higher. I am taking a small position here at 1.8746 with a stop at 8736.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Slept in today and missed the short breakout on the Pound at around 6:35 Am this morning. Rising wedge bottom seemed to have formed over the past 40 minutes. I may take a new short position if it breaks down below 1.8720
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If I understand you correctly, you are saying that the move is a bit overdone and you'll need a fresh signal? If so, I think you may be correct as evidenced by the 5 minute chart on both Euro and Pound. I am watching that time frame to see if this bounce will be short lived.
 
It was looking like a pause in the drop and perhaps a new entry for a short if it broke down bit instead it moved higher above the wedge top line and CCI/MACD and stochastics were all moving higher. So I got in at 8746 for a short-term scalp.



Quote from Buy1Sell2:

If I understand you correctly, you are saying that the move is a bit overdone and you'll need a fresh signal? If so, I think you may be correct as evidenced by the 5 minute chart on both Euro and Pound. I am watching that time frame to see if this bounce will be short lived.
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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Here's an interesting position that I have in the Euro FX call options:

I have several net credit spreads at the following levels

1 Long Sep 1280 Call versus 2 Short Sep 1290 calls. All were executed with net credit of around 100 pips. These were executed in mid June.

When the price in the Euro dropped in mid July, I bought 1 Sep 1300 call for every spread I had on at around 35 pips. Thus I had converted my ratio spreads into Butterfly Spreads. The net effect is there is no risk in the position and I have netted a minimum of 65 pips per spread. (100-35). Here's the interesting part--I would like to have the price of the Euro FX on expiration day be 1.2900 so that the 1280's will be in the money 100 pips. If the price is 1.3000. I breakeven but still make the 65 pips. If the price is 1.2800, I breakeven but still make the 65 pips. If the price is 1.4000, I still make 65 pips and if the price is 1.2000 , I still make 65 pips. So, my hope is that the Euro FX price is somewhere between 1.2800 and 1.3000 on expiration day. Interesting to me anyway!
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Well. it looks like it will be just the 65 pips! Last trading day is tomorrow. Euro fx currentlyaround 1.27300 so my 1280 call won't be in the money unless we have a rally. Still profitable--
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I continue to think the Aussie is ready to explode. I favor an explosion to the downside. Keeping my stop at .7776 for now.
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I haven't been talking much about this positional--
 
Well I got in at 8746 and then added more at MA support at 8739 and sold off in 2 pieces at 8750 and 8743 for a small scalp.

Pound did not surge after the breakout so I decided to just take the scalp and get out of the way :)


Quote from optioncoach:

Slept in today and missed the short breakout on the Pound at around 6:35 Am this morning. Rising wedge bottom seemed to have formed over the past 40 minutes. I may take a new short position if it breaks down below 1.8720

Edit: Actually it broke above the short term swing hig and looks to move higher. I am taking a small position here at 1.8746 with a stop at 8736.
More...
 
I believe this to be the beginning of large down moves in Euro, Pound, Franc and maybe to a lesser extent Aussie. This is dependent on the closing price today and tomorrow. I'm already short. (Not the Franc though--it doubles the Euro).
 
Canadian has a bit more work to do to make it an all out bear. I can certainly see the way the chart could look, but right now short term we need to break .8981 (basis Sept) convincingly to change the daily trend. If I am wrong on the call for major downmoves, I will pare my losses and not lose more than 2 percent of liquid net worth on one individual market. In this case since all are currencies, I will limit that to 2 percent on the idea.
 
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