Hello B1S2 - just wanted to interject that I have been following your thread and have found it to be very interesting and well presented - thank you for your efforts and I hope you will stay with it.
I've only recently become better acquainted with the 240 min chart, and am finding it to be a very good directional indicator per the EuroFX. When the setups appear on this chart, it serves a person well to take notice. As a daytrader, I have found it much easier to drill down into the lower timeframes to find a trigger which is biased from this chart.
You have stated that your forte is position trading, and I have a question pertaining to time frames. Do you feel that a daytrader can impose limits on his universe? In other words, I'm wondering if he can cut off his perspective of the mkt at the minor trend level, and not be concerned with the intermediate and major trends. Personally speaking, my pea brain starts bogging down when I begin to factor in all what the daily, weekly and monthly charts are showing, since they are often at odds with one another. Should this matter if I'm targeting 20-40 ticks/trade?
To take a stab at your question: I would have to say no, provided that this is all the hypothetical information available. The price decline was not precipitated from a bearish divergence, and currently on your chart, the rsi is coming up out of oversold territory while the macd is displaying a positive slope. And, price has been hugging the lower band for a while. Of course, it solely depends on the scope of the trade, but if daytrading, I would look to re-enter after a bit more correction.
Finally, if I could utter my thoughts about the current state of affairs with the euro. This is just my take on the mkt from viewing the 240 min chart. The mkt began a minor uptrend off the low @ 1.2503 on 7/19. This uptrend line was broken with penetration and a close below on 8/23. Since that day, price has entered into consolidation, and displaying an upward bias off the low on 8/25 (which, incidentally, provided a nice rsi/macd bullish divergence). Should price be able to significantly take out the 1.2740 level, I think it safe to say that a confirmed minor downtrend will have been initiated. I'd be very interested to hear your critique of this assesment.
Best of luck w/ your trades, B1S2 ...