Fx futures Journal

OddTrader · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

As a position trader though, I stay with my original premise and just stay short. We weather the bounces and let the trade run. If I see an obvious bullish divergence on hourly charts, I may consider taking profits and reentering at a higher price, but it needs to be very very obvious.

So whether you actually stay in a position trade (until changing direction/ position?), or else?

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from OddTrader:

Are you saying you earn 1,000 pips per contract by trading EURUSD without any leverage? That's truly amazing!

Yes, on the weekly chart, this is possible. 1000 pips per contract. On Daily charts, I generally shoot for at least 400 pips. Of course, they aren't all that large and of course, some are losers. But this is my minimum initial goal when I put on a position trade. I try to get as much per commission as I can. The only way to do that is to hold your position. Now I do see some bottoming in the currency futures that I trade right now as I look at the 240 chart, so I may consider closing and reentering at a higher price. ---Not enough info just yet. Long term bearish right now when I look at weeklies.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from OddTrader:

So whether you actually stay in a position trade (until changing direction/ position?), or else?

Generally yes, but I will sometimes take profit and reenter on a bounce, but I don't have to do that--it is generally when I see an opportunity in a different market and I want to explore there. That way I stay underleveraged and I am not a weak hand. Weak hands are usually the losers.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Weekly charts on BP, CD, JY and EC are all still long term bearish. The Aussie is also bearish on the weekly chart even with this bounce. It's always subject to change though of course, but right now, they are all still bearish.

OddTrader · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Yes, on the weekly chart, this is possible. 1000 pips per contract.

That's without leverage. How many times you attain this performance per year?

Say if 5 times, that would be 5,000 pips per year, about 20 pips average per day.

OddTrader · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Generally yes, but I will sometimes take profit and reenter on a bounce, but I don't have to do that--it is generally when I see an opportunity in a different market and I want to explore there. That way I stay underleveraged and I am not a weak hand. Weak hands are usually the losers.

Do you have any figures of returns % for reference?

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from OddTrader:

Do you have any figures of returns % for reference?

Returns on my portfolio are 50 to 80 percent yearly. 2004 was an exceptional year at 145%. It's not all currency futures of course, and includes naked option selling etc.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Quote from OddTrader:

That's without leverage. How many times you attain this performance per year?

Say if 5 times, that would be 5,000 pips per year, about 20 pips average per day.

Difficult to quantify exactly, but I would say probably it's twice a year roughly. One thing to note--1000 pips is the initial goal, but if it still looks like it's in the larger trend , I will stay with it.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 12, 2006

Question for readers:

If I set an initial goal on a weekly chart of 1000 pips, would you consider 300 pips to be an acceptable stop?

m4a1 · Oct 12, 2006

depends on the volatility of the market you're trading. if volatility is such that it regularly zigs and zags 300 pips on 1000 point moves, then it may not be acceptable.

but i don't know how to measure this relationship. do you have any good ideas?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Question for readers:

If I set an initial goal on a weekly chart of 1000 pips, would you consider 300 pips to be an acceptable stop?