News trading is in priority for me, simple because its easy to understand, lies on sound trading and economic principles and is not taken out from thin air. Technical analysis is always biased since its more about trading philosophy and conclusion derived from this, rather than sensible reaction of the market to events happening.
fx and technicals
- Thread starter cashclay
- Start date
News trading is in priority for me, simple because its easy to understand, lies on sound trading and economic principles and is not taken out from thin air. Technical analysis is always biased since its more about trading philosophy and conclusion derived from this, rather than sensible reaction of the market to events happening.
That's essentially what I'm doing here in shorting EURUAD.
I’m likely to pocket my gains somewhere in this neighborhood if price action suggests to me that the exchange rate is reluctant to continue falling
It looks like that might have simply been the market makers doing a bit of stop hunting before taking things south, so I am once again short AUDJPY.
AUDUSD is also on its way down...
And EURAUD is on its way up...
Last edited:
I try to approach technical analysis in the same way that meteorologists approach weather forecasting. In other words...collect precise, up-to-date, quantitative information about the current state of affairs at a given place and time (such as trend, market structure, average price range, historical support/resistance levels, and repetitive price patterns in lieu of air pressure/temperature, cloud location, wind direction/velocity, and humidity) and interpret it to make accurate predictions—all of which leads me to believe that AUDUSD will be rising from the 0.7782 level.
In this instance, conditions changed and I had to reevaluate the situation and alter my forecast. But in most cases, what I expect to see price do is more often than not what it actually does.
In this instance, conditions changed and I had to reevaluate the situation and alter my forecast. But in most cases, what I expect to see price do is more often than not what it actually does.
Last edited:
Again, my readings lead me to forecast a rise in the rate of AUDUSD, this time above the 0.7778 level.
Likewise, I’m hoping to see AUDJPY rise to hit my 83.58 take-profit target.
And EURAUD fall to hit my 1.5897 target.
Last edited:
The behavior of AUDJPY and AUDUSD this morning illustrates why I used to only aim for 5 pips profit at a time—a strategy to which I’m seriously considering returning given that when I traded in this manner I was typically able to realize a 90%+ success rate.
AUDUSD and AUDJPY have given me two buy signals without substantial follow-through this morning, and unfortunately, I failed to lock in what little gains they offered me when I had the chance (though I did managed to eke out a tiny bit of profit from shorting EURAUD, but it ultimately behaved in a similar manner as the other two Aussie pairs).
I’m hoping to do better with GBPUSD, whose numbers encouraged be to buy at 1.4198.
AUDJPY and AUDUSD made a hard decision to head south (according to my numbers) at about 2:51 p.m. GMT. Since I had no idea at that time that this was a move to which the pairs were strongly committed, I find myself once again (for the third time this morning) waiting for another buy signal.
Last edited:
In another thread I wrote that While I do not believe I can refine my charts any more than I already have, I do see room for improvement when it comes to the forecast models I use to interpret them, and that is what I would be focusing on over the next few days.
This morning is basically confirming those thoughts, in that I see no need to add anything to my charts that is not already there, but there is one key measure I use to gauge the markets to which I previously attributed only limited significance, but that is now going to assume THE central role in deciding when my forecasts are to call for entering long positions, and when they are to recommend selling instead.
This morning is basically confirming those thoughts, in that I see no need to add anything to my charts that is not already there, but there is one key measure I use to gauge the markets to which I previously attributed only limited significance, but that is now going to assume THE central role in deciding when my forecasts are to call for entering long positions, and when they are to recommend selling instead.
According to my new forecast model, it is now acceptable to enter long positions with respect to CHFJPY and I would expect the exchange rate of continue to climb from the 110.56 level, so I purchased the pair and set a take-profit target of 110.67 to test my theory.
(I also expect EURJPY to climb from 132.58.)