Futures Volume at Price is Useless

[bone]

I would like to comment that I have purchased all of John Grady's NoBS Day Trading stuff and religiously went through his videos. This was a few years back, I was able to sit there and trade Treasuries.

You can make money using Volume @ Price. It doesn't matter about the OTC market or cash market or any other world market.

If you sit there, watching every minute, and record/label/filter your trades, you WILL eventually get it. You cannot be "auto-piloting". You MUST actively review every single day, and stick with the filter trades that are Profitable, and avoid the ones that are Losses.

If you are trading the Bund, I would also recommend using Market Profile (look up Axia Futures videos on the internet)

If you are trading Outright (anything), it's quite a different game than Spreading. Outright game...and using the Volume Footprint, is all about "leaning" on an area, a big guy, a price region, or a specific price.

In the Treasuries, because the prices are so thick, you can literally lean a price 1-2 ticks away. If it holds up, you profit. If it doesn't, you hit out.

In the Bund, you can't really lean on one price (because it's so thin) so you have to lean on an "area" of the profile. Once again I strongly recommend watching the video of the guy pulling $60,000 up-day in the Bund on Youtube:

If you scroll half way through the video you can see this guys PNL is up to $50,000 pounds already on this day. They rely on watching Price-Action (volume accumulation), Market + Volume Profile...

These guys are experts (5yrs + experience) but it can be done.

A lot of ideas being thrown here but the simple point is this:

Spreaders: You have a higher win-rate, you trade off a "Bankroll", you hope things don't blow up in your face, but you pay the price by taking on a lower "Reward to Risk" ratio.
You might be risking 10 to make a unit of 1-5. Your edge is researching what else is "blowing" or "not blowing", what are the other markets doing... is it safe to be in this spread?

Outright (Volume Profile, Market Profile, Footprints etc.) in efficient markets: The win rates would be between 40-65%, you trade off an "idea" or "region". You are always leaning on the region. If your exit region is too far away, you're in a bad trade.

Now the distinction to make is this, just because you think the market is going up and you're outright, doesn't mean you just get long.
What you are supposed to do is exercise some patience and wait for a setup which tilts the probability of reward/risk in your favour.

This is why it takes people 6-12 months just to "get it" (if they ever do). The whole game of patience, discipline.... is learning the difference between "I got long because I think it's going up" and... "I got long because I know I can exit 2 ticks away, but if I'm right it'll give me 3 to 7".

Just because the market is going up, doesn't mean it's a good Long. But if you can get your Long near a region, area, block, iceberg... that tells you, you're Wrong if it breaks against you and holds, and you're Right if it pops away... then you will see a rising Equity curve in your account over time.

These are the basic principals of trading Price action, Volume Profile.. Market Profile... it works.

I know it works because I've done it and I learned the skillset.

I will say this... if you try to disperse your attention to multiple trading methods at once, you will suck at all of them. Sit there, watch it every day, focus, record your trades, you will make solid gains every week until you hit profitability.

Finally for Bone.. trust me.. I was in your boat. I thought the exact same thing.. I was skeptical... until I just closed off all distractions, sat there, watched it day-in and day-out, recorded my trades and saw the growth in the art form process.

I took Pete Steidelmeyer’s courses in the 1990’s, and I respect Market Profile. What made MP work was incorporation of the TIME element in terms of assessing the quality of volume at price. For example, if a market spent little TIME building traded volume at a specific price - it meant that the market had rejected that specific price valuation.

 

[destriero]

bone is 100% on the money here.

i want to add that VPA or VAP is not a magic formula: i used it when i started out in day trading and i lost money ; this time 8 years later it has stopped my losses and trades are happening naturally.
What changed between now and then? i do not know.

Dude, you just reloaded your account this week.

 

[padutrader]

bone is 100% on the money here.



Dude, you just reloaded your account this week.

when it does not matter to me whether i am profitable or not, why are you so bothered.
if volume does not work but price does how come 95% of traders lose money.?

Traders have to work!!!!

i am not the only one who says vpa works or that spot forex volume,[whether genuine or not,] works with vpa: there are respected well known traders,yes more well known than you but for the right reasons, who say the same thing .

i have been there done that and it works

i am not saying i have been always profitable ....but your personal nature of your posts show what your interest is: not in market but in saying that you are a better trader than me.

I do not think anyone else in the et and in the world is interested whether that is true or not
they are interested in knowing how the market works

 

[padutrader]

if a market spent little TIME building traded volume at a specific price - it meant that the market had rejected that specific price valuation.

yes but there are others who say the market has to spend time to build a move: both of these i have seen happen in the market

 

[treeman]

..but your personal nature of your posts show what your interest is: not in market but in saying that you are a better trader than me.

I do not think anyone else in the et and in the world is interested whether that is true or not
they are interested in knowing how the market works

Nah. He’s a dick, for sure.. but he’s the type that wears that with a badge of pride. Regardless, he’s been pretty transparent on his motive.. basically calling out bullshit as he sees it. And you’re sloshing it around all over the place. On the plus side, there’s not a single person on here who thinks you know what you’re talking about. You are aware of what insanity is, I assume.

 

[padutrader]

On the plus side, there’s not a single person on here who thinks you know what you’re talking about

i know what i am talking about but THEY do not know what i am talking about

yes if you are insane or very well established ,like Buffet or Soros, in both case no one will know what is talked about

 

[treeman]

20 years buddy. You haven’t earned the right to say you know anything. Sad but true. I wish you were profitable. I do. But this isn’t for you.

And no... we are not going to witness your immaculate transformation.

 

[padutrader]

20 years buddy. You haven’t earned the right to say you know anything. Sad but true. I wish you were profitable. I do. But this isn’t for you.

And no... we are not going to witness your immaculate transformation.

for the record it is ten years in day trading.And most of what you have said is your personal opinion:i do not know how many are interested in personal opinions:mine or yours
And all those ten years have been spent in study of Brooks bull shit:yes it was my stupidity i agree but everyone cant be smart.
now this is what Wychoff says about bar by bar and i know Wychoff is right from ten years of experience:
"The market is an on-going story, unfolding bar by bar. The art of reading the market is to take an overall view, not to concentrate on individual bars.

Any current action that is taking place cannot alter the strength or weakness that is embedded (and latent) in the background. It is vital to remember that near background indications are just as important as the most recent."

 

[padutrader]

And no... we are not going to witness your immaculate transformation.

what does it matter to you..it matters to me
.....are you GOD that you know what you are going to witness me or not going to witness?
just because i was not profitable in the past does not mean i will never be profitable
WHO ARE YOU TO TELL ME THAT I WILL NEVER BE PROFITABLE?

 

[treeman]

Look, I’m not going to shit on Wyckoff (mainly because it’s pretty solid imo), but 10 years on a dead end?? And then arguing with people about volume on an unregulated market... you stating things as imperial fact as it pertains to successfully trading is irresponsible, and certainly not informed by personal success. It’s all metaphysical. Anyone can state anything they believe to be true, but it’s noise. Thanks for adding to the noise.