Futures Trading Analysis

First, I think way too many people who have little amount of money get into day trading cause it doesn't take much to open an account, way too many commercials or magazines of some guy on golf course saying he "worked' couple hours and now enjoying the good life, what it doesn't tell you is that guy worked so many years, and some years didn't know what month it was or if it was sunny or rainy day outside. Has so many stats, could wallpaper nineteen houses but keeps saying "I am so close".

Very few books if any that offer much more than generalization on Trading Plans and ones that I have seen are very vague on what should be included. Generally good traders not going to write books as they too busy trading, and let's face it, too many that write are in the ego stages of their life cause there isn't big money in writing books.

Most learn by losing money, most don't know how to program, most spend way too much time on entering the market, most don't keep stats, most information overload, most have no clue of what they want to achieve.

What you hope to achieve is losing concept of pain, brain tries to make market as logical entity, chart patterns often shows exactly as logically as possible what makes sense, price goes up-time to buy, price comes down-time to sell, brain is happy-no pain. But try to buy when market dropping like a rock, and one's breathing, blood pressure, anxiety attacks are ripping and brain is causing all of this as a way to tell you something is not logical, and even though brain has designed the Trading Plan based on stats from back testing, brain not happy when price not acting by what it sees.

I believe in anything that is written in Trading Plan must have stats to show why, if no stats, isn't added. I see way way too many traders who write journals either have none or not current stats on their systems, how can you tell how you doing? And account size means nothing. This alone, stats should keep you from day trading for at least a year, nothing wrong with spending couple years of study first before losing your account, if you can't be profitable 4 of 5 trading days each week in simulated=you are Bait.

Three groups of Trading, Entry, Money Management, Mental. And all three can be divided up into many sub classes. I often think "Mental" as time passes does get smaller as one's education increases. Entry is one of two ways, buying as price going up or buying as Price coming down. Money Management is one reason of before trade can be taken and many reasons of to the right of price. Mental=if you stay strict to having Trading Plan stats on all info going into Trading Plan, will have much less Mental problems than anyone else.

This is a very very very good posting! It summarizes all (if not at least the most important) elements that are needed or encountered in the experiment of becoming a (day)trader. Although I recognize almost all these things from my personal experience I would never be able to write it like it is written here. Somebody who can write this proofs by writing it that he knows what he speaks about.
Very valuable posting for starters. Read it carefully and analyze profoundly what each statement means for you.
 
1) You need 1 or more trading setups with edge. This means if you wait for the setup patiently and take it, you will achieve a positive outcome over 50% of the time.

2) Order management. Certain setups may allow for more profit, and some require and equal risk vs reward.

3) Psychological awareness. You need to accept the fact that the trade you take will turn into a loss either because you did not wait for a good setup, you were chasing, or you were revenge trading. Also, sometimes you will put on a good trade, and the market may still stop you out due to a report or randomness. So before you take the trade, you will be prepared for the loss or the win.

4) Determine how many trades you normally do in day. If you take 1 win on winning day, you don't want to take 3 losses on a losing day. You may also need to set a loss amount you will not go over for the day.

5) Write down either in Excel or Word a journal that in writing has your trade setups, and if a trade did not work out, why it did not for example, you were chasing instead of waiting for a good setup. Then try to learn from your mistakes so you don't repeat them. You want to make progress for example today I took a good trade based on my setup and it worked out. I then looked over my charts for the day to see where I can improve for future trading. For example, today I could have taken more setups and made more money.
 
Last post for now; here is an illustration of the process of having a researched and tested model in your mind, and comparing the unfolding reality with your defined parameters. I like to be in control of my trades at all times; I don't see a set-up, enter, put up a stop and profit target, then sit back and hope for the best.

Each forming bar gives me information on how the market is behaving. I continually monitor the information, and when I gather enough information change my perception of the current sentiment, I exit or reverse my trade depending on context. It doesn't have to take very long to know you were wrong. This was a 2 point loss.
I see an edge on your chart: BRB = long (blue arrow), RBR = short (red arrow) ... :)
 

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That's good, but did you see it in foresight or in hindsight?
Finding an edge is the first problem. Finding it in FOREsight is the next problem.
The OP wrote "... I am interested in how people learn to trade index futures contracts ..."
So, this discussion is about how to learn, how to find an exploitable edge.
  • Monitor price and volume, look for patterns, and take notes.
  • Analyze what you observed, your notes.
  • Decide what seems as a tradable edge.
  • Act on testing what you found.
Repeat this loop until you find the way, or you find that you don't have what it takes.

What I did:
  • Looked at llIHeroic's example.
  • Analyzed it from various perspectives, and noticed a pattern on the small snippet.
  • Formed a working hypothesis.
  • Tested on llIHeroic's "aftermath" snippet.
From here, repeating the MADA loop, on other snippets I can try to discover if and when my hypothesis works, adjust it, test it again, until I find that I can profitably trade it, or I give up.

It's possible that my final finding will have nothing to do with this initial observation.

Different traders will follow different paths. The same trader can try various routes starting from the same initial observation.

There's no answer to your question about foresight / hindsight as it is unrelated to the process of finding a tradable edge.
 
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