Futures traders: how consistently does overnight bias hold?

[hafez50]

Out 65. took 9 quick pts

 

[Overnight]

Thanks, very helpful re correlation insights. I'll likely start keeping track of what happens in premkt following futs moving 200 or more points green/red night before by 7pm

Did what happened last night help you today? We went up a bunch into the RTH open, after that bias down after the close.

And now tonight is a mess, Asia doesn't know WTF to do.

 

[guowei58]

Hey futures traders, can you help with this?

My question: how consistently, if at all do tonight's futures bias hold into tomorrow's open?

I'm assuming the larger the point value the more likely it is to hold, barring contrary headlines. For example when I look at cnbc.com tonight and it says dow futures up or down weakly eg <100 it's not significant, but if strong red or green 300 points it's more likely to be same bull or bear bias tomorrow morning?

The reason I'm asking is to see if we can gain an advantage by buying long vs short bias ETFs aftermarket based on futures bias night before , to profit from gap tomorrow.

Example: if at 7pmET cnbc.com shows dow futures -300 red would buying inverses like SQQQ TZA aftermarket likely gap up because futures held short bias overnight?

Or is it usually random?

I'm not a futures trader, hope you guys can help... thanks!

I'll test and post results to help everyone, I'm always looking for profitable edges.

Buy futures if it's down aftermarket. you'll most likely make money in the long run. the results are much better during a quiet market than a volatile market...

 

[DTB2]

Not sure about holding until the open but my 8 pm (CST) strategy makes $$.

8 pm above or below RTH close, take next higher high or lower low, 5M chart. Couple or 3 points and that's it.

7:50 sit down for the trade by 8:30 at the latest, I'm done.