Futures Indexes System and Tool Box

Status
Not open for further replies.
Posted by oddiduro on 07-01-03 05:27 AM:
Quote from nwbprop:

After looking at the 1 min chart that i posted on page 150, I noticed something very interesting. For the medium/slow pace iceberg (i am still not sure exactly which one), the 1 Min macd Xover would have been a PERFECT signal to get short or long. It would ahve been great until it turned into no pace or ccc(if that is ccc) at 10:38. Jack, is this correct that maybe when we recognize the pace of the market being medium/slow, we immediately use our 1 min macd xovers as the signal to exit and reverse trades?

You will find what you suggest works quite well. But be sure the hang out on the 5 min for most of the trading.

I must have been daydreaming in class. Would someone please tell me what the devil CCC is???

And what is it's significance?
ccc is congestion, consolidation and centering, it leads to a break out and is usualy found at the end of a fast pace trend
ccc= congestion, convergence and centering

the idea is that the buyers and sellers get closer and closer until there is little/no price action and volume drys up leading a potential break out

Posted by oddiduro on 07-01-03 06:23 AM:

The price volume relationship

In an effort to delve further into the price volume relationship I would like to submit the following postulate:

If the price, volume relationship is critical to the viability of the trend, it follows that this price volume relationship would extend to all time frames. What is the best way to determine the volume number necessary to sustain a trend in a particular equity or commodity? Would an average volume of say, the last 34 bars, be sufficient? Or perhaps, the significant high and low of the last non- lateral trend could be measured. One could then take the number of days and divide the total volume by the number of days of the trend in question, to get the critical volume number.

My logic is that if the price volume relationship is established on the daily time frame, it would simply be a matter of conversion to determine the correct price volume relationship on any time frame. Therefore, with could adjust our time frame to maintain a relative constant in the price volume relationship, which would help us to manage lateral trends on any level

What would you think of this, Jack?

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-01-03 07:12 AM:

good timing

the only thing that i remember jack saying about this is that on a break out you should look for the nextvolume bar to be 3 to 4 times the vdu, and look for the bars on th e5 min to continue to grow through the trend.

I was just looking to try to figure out how to use rsi in this manner, I however am about as far from figureing it out as I could be so I am up for hearing/having a discusion about this.

I think it would be very usefull to see something that indicated rate of change of volume. I think Jack may tell us to slow down and not get ahead of ourselves.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-01-03 09:58 AM:
today i posted the 5 minute. I think we had a failed rocket short due to the economic numbers, followed by a long medium iceberg.

Posted by jack hershey on 07-01-03 12:43 PM:

today's open: everyone goes in short at sync

experts reversal on the end of rocket. Salom until 12:00 when centering starts. Bracket in by setting up on the centering.

beginners out on end of rocket go in long at 11:15 to 11:35 13:00 minus or so go in at 14:20.

Intermediates hang with short to 11:15 . you go short and have a loss around 12:15. Yoiu can wash here and so can beginners. If you wash you can go in at 12:50 and you are still hanging in.

This was a failure to BO on the IT trend I suggested yesterday. We have broken back up into the original channel. Set a new point 3 for the IT channel.


Posted by icarus618 on 07-01-03 12:57 PM:
Thank You, Jack
What an incredible day. Thank you, Jack, for your lessons. This is the kind of day in the past where after a very good morning I would have been wiped out in the afternoon looking for "follow through." I used a "change" tool today and reversed after a failure of a failure to breakout. Thanks again, Jack. And please keep it coming.

Posted by icarus618 on 07-01-03 01:55 PM:
nwbprop

Quote from nwbprop:

today I posted the 5 minute. I think we had a failed rocket short due to the economic numbers, followed by a long medium iceberg.

I noticed you include overnight data in your use of indicators. You might consider using data only from 09:30 - 16:15 EST. I've found the indicators work better this way, even considering the frequent discontinuities. (Just be sure to wait for synch.) You would then have noticed that this morning's rocket actually started yesterday afternoon.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-01-03 02:25 PM:
Re: today

Quote from jack hershey:

snip, snip




Since you said you are going to deal with a million details asap, you might be already covering this. When you would have slalomed between the failed rocket and the centering at 12:00, how many trades would you have taken? I count 4 optimal trades; failed rocket reversal long to 10:30, short from 10:30 to 10:56, long from 10:56 to 11:30, short from 11:30 to 11:47. Of course these may be totally wrong. Also, was i wrong in thinking that a long iceberg was created? you say that intermeditaes should have taken the SHORT at 11:15, this leads me to believe that i was wrong in my iceberg(medium/slow pace) that i posted earlier.

My reply is that learning to stay in an iceberg to the limit is very valuable. Differing profits may result but holding a trade that is healthy is an excellent way of making money.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-01-03 02:34 PM:
Re: nwbprop

Quote from icarus618:

I noticed you include overnight data in your use of indicators. You might consider using data only from 09:30 - 16:15 EST. I've found the indicators work better this way, even considering the frequent discontinuities. (Just be sure to wait for synch.) You would then have noticed that this morning's rocket actually started yesterday afternoon.

I see what you mean. I will definately look into this, as i did miss the short rocket this morning waiting for the 1 min macd to xover(1 min xover rule is something i use). I am gong to start bracketing the open anyway and look for continuation. this would have also got me that short rocket this morning.
 
Posted by vorzo on 07-01-03 03:15 PM:
Mon-Tue update
I was off so I had some time to trade.

Mon
#1 short rocket
10:41 short 975.00
10:45 cover 975.75 washed as I noticed I entered at away side. Bad trade. Holding through 3 pts in the red would've put me back at the right side - but this is hindsight.
-0.75

#2 short rocket
14:38 short 977.75
14:45 cover 979.25 same story - entry at away side; besides MACD was neutral. Bad again.
-1.50

Midday there was a nice iceberg turned rocket.

#3 rocket reentry
15:10 short 976.50
15:38 975.00 rocket failure -> faster channel BO -> MACD x. Hindsight: holding for the 2nd pt 3 for 3 more pts.
+1.50

Day -0.75
Lack of focus -> bad entries.

Tue - afternoon only
#1 long rocket
14:21 long 972.75
14:47 sell 978.50 failure to trav faster channel. Too early - stochs still in the zone -> slower channel through close. Final traverse of slow channel failed at yest afternoon's high -> indication of tomorrow's bias?
+6.25

Day +6.25
Week +5.50/4 trades.

Posted by jack hershey on 07-01-03 05:14 PM:
Quote from lcl_1:

It would be very helpful if you would add a few real time, or, as close to real time, chart examples of your written explanations to the trading journal.

Iam going to proceed on this. I am practicing already.

since we are coming off the right side of an IT channel (fri, mon ,tues) I am going to get us in context first.
Today I posted a quick rundown on the day's stuff for three levels of people.

As a small departure I am going to post expert stuff occassionally so people can see where they will wind up soon. These posts will be up in almost real time. there is a 60 sec limitation between posts so I will be popping them in from two machines to halve that stuff.

At first I am going to get you in a place where no matter what level of waelth you have created, you can keep the beat. a person cannot skip steps in this learning process. they will be kidding themsleves about their emotional make up and what they really learn is FEAR. I try very hard to not get people into that.

One thing I will have to do as part of the expert trading is go out ahead of the market 5 to 15 minutes. by doing this and you going with me, you see that this is where you will mostly be operating.

So look for continuing posts as an expert trading. I will annotate in between by kicking in mini charts from my other machine. I will say when I am out ahead fo the market.

If you were around a while back you saw be trade the commodities running through a head and shoulders then a super whipsaw period were I cremed it. remember there some people could never understand it. I will work very hard to be focussed. clear, crisp and backing it with visuals.

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-02-03 06:53 AM:
My trades from yesterday
summation of 7/1 trades
10:01 (spy 96.94) shorted the number rode down into a rocket, i was using data that included the overnight otherwise i proboly would have been short a lot earlier held to long despite having 'felt' the botom. Had i seen the continuation from the day before better i probably would have been looking at it differently (cover 10:12 @96.76)

11:30 took a wash looking for a rocket
11:55 washed looking for it to break back up into a rocket

12:57 long 96.99 – change modus, failed downside rocket, price rising on increasing volume good buy, coverered 1:37 at 95.45 because didn't make it across my trend channel tried reversing (for a loss)
2:20 long 97.54 volume break out back into a rocket closed at 2:38 only to restablish 22 cents higher, I thought it was breaking down on increasing volume, oops. Cover 3:35 @ 98.40 thought we were in consolodation.

I definitely have a lot to work on but my best day as of yet up 124 cents in the SPYs.

in retrospect I saw we were in change mode but it took a while before i could see the enty signals, I got burned for a while (a couple weeks ago) playing breakouts but as of late have been able to 'see' them a lot sooner, its kewl

Posted by nkhoi on 07-02-03 10:11 AM:
pace
avi file record from centering to BO, centering is slow so it look like it is not moving, it move faster at end of file.
http://www.boomspeed.com/nkhoi/pace.avi

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-02-03 04:22 PM:

hi,

I am proceeding with trying to learn as much about your trading system as I can. I think that you are waiting either for the market to show something, or for us to figure something else out. I was hoping you could advise me how to proceed. I think that my next step is to see the market paces a little better. This I believe means keeping a stop log, which I am confused about because i have never used stops before (i infact didn't have them untill about 2 weeks ago). thank you agian for your time. also if the answer is that i need to watch the market more, just tell me to shut up and trade.

today i spent a lot of time practicing washing and paying a lot of attention to the P/V relationship on a micro level, it was fun but i was looking forward to you posting

Posted by bundlemaker on 07-02-03 04:48 PM:
One trade for me today, small profit, huge lesson. I"m trading SPY in small size to help keep the emotion out, so my prices are for that instrument, sorry about that. I do watch the ES for actual trigger points though.

I'm antsy, so made early entry at 9:37, 98.79. Bias for today was long, small gap quickly filled and turned around. Stochastics were entwined from yesterday above 80, so I went long after the high of the 9:30 bar was broke.

Now, here's the neat part: 9:55 bar is high momentum on increasing volume. Next bar (10:00) I immediately noticed volume charging up on lower prices ( pro rata as Jack puts it). I got out at 99.08.

I'm finding using volume to be wildly useful. Side note: 10 o'clock bar is often a reversal bar at least to some extent.

I've noticed several times that these early morning entries carrying thruogh from prior day don't have MACD reading high enough, but I take them because they seem to work.

bundlemaker,
its neat when you start to see the 'pro rata' volume, I was playing with that yesterday as well.
 
the point 2 to 3 dilemma

jack

been trying to get to the next level by incorporating a faster fractal...my biggest problem is trying to determine whether something is a reversal or a point 2-3 channel traverse...should i just be looking at volume as the driver?...for ex in the attached chart mkt traverses on lower vol...macd halts at 0 line...i have been looking out for divg macd xo with price for reversal areas....any comments on this and the attached chart are appreciated. thanks

i know this day was pretty straight forward and almost fit the method to a T. I try and visualize this action and use it as a guide when trading.

i also agree that a discussion on the sop log would be of great benefit...prob allow us to hand the channel traverse much better....

everyone have a great holdiay.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-06-03 10:48 AM:

Quote from jack hershey:

As the money velocity slows you are coming into a tack. when the tacks have the same spacing (they will) you are grooving making money.

This is different than most methods. You are getting depth here as well as a breadth you deserve by now. So take deep breadths. Association works.

[color=greenOn thursday, As I was C&R, I noticed something very cool that you are refering too in terms of tacks having the same spacing. It seemed that the perfect time for reversing was 5 min(peaks occuring every 10 minutes). It seemed that their was constant spacing in terms of time and peaks. I think that this may be what you always talk about when referring to A/D. The range of prices was changing while the horizontal spacing of time was the same.
I think adding horizontal stops(time) def heps in adding to the breadth and depth category.

next step is too make sequences in these different peak paces and how they change.[/color]

Your observations and conclusions are terrific. This is exactly the sensitivity we are going for.

Posted by bundlemaker on 07-06-03 11:03 AM:
Stop log questions
When Jack says, "important values in formations", is that essentially referring to pivot points. If not, I'm missing something.

Also, I'm a bit confused about which fractal to watch for the stop log. In one place Jack states, "make log from the fractal you trade", which to me means the 5min. In another spot he says to,"use the next faster fractal", meaning the 1min. Can anyone clear this up.

Frankly, I"m still a bit stumped about the whole stop log thing. How is this different from just running a trailing stop 1 or 2 pivot points back. Am I missing somthing important?


Posted by vorzo on 07-06-03 05:57 PM:
stop log

Quote from dawg:


i also agree that a discussion on the sop log would be of great benefit...prob allow us to hand the channel traverse much better....

dawg,

I'll take a stab at it. My take is that the actual stops we are placing through C&R are used for protection from unexpected events (such as today's selloff) rather than to take us out of trades when market conditions change. The pace for doing C&R is directly related to market pace - for a trend, it's the time between two peaks or troughs.

The recording of stops, on the other hand, can put you on guard when things are about to change. If you can no longer add new values to the log after one C&R interval (or the time it took the market to make two troughs/peaks), then the trend might come end. If you also get flaws in sequences, it's time to get out.

I'm still unsure about what formations to use for stops - see Jack's example from a post on page 79. These formations would obviously differ between 1m and 5m fractals.

Jack, can you shed some light on this.

Posted by dawg on 07-06-03 06:09 PM:
thanks
vorzo,

thanks...your comments are almost exactly what i was thinking....just wanted someone elses opinion.

A response

i think you are looking a little to closely...yes the market paused, but the market is allowed to traverse the trend channel and still remain in a trend....that is what the pts 1-2-3 are for...the channel....the entire time the market 'paused' the stochs never left the rocket zone...so stick with the trend.

we are looking for the whole trend and not just a straight line move...that is where the big moves are.

while the mkt pause would get my attention that 'single flaw' alone would not get me out of my trade...trend line still intact, just traversing pt 2-3, rocket signals still good. stick with trade...if rocket ends reverse.

one other thing is you could do is exit on the left/away side of channel and re-enter on the right side..although you don't always get that chance to re-enter as market can thrust upward.

i attached my 2m chart of channel



Posted by 1contract on 07-07-03 09:45 AM:
My stocs & MACD hist show a rocket from the open this morning - but are these valid at start of day? - especially when there's a gap open. I didn't trade it - but I wish I had

Any thoughts?

I think this question has been asked before here - but I don't recall a clear answer.

I recommend that you do. It is consistent with what we are doing without exception. By having it happen and seeing it, you are now better defining just how it works under all conditions.
 
Posted by dawg on 07-07-03 09:52 AM:
flaws
i still think that when you are in a rocket you want to try and give as much room as possible...they are the big money makers...especially off the open.

again just how i look at it and just trying to help.

Posted by dawg on 07-07-03 10:15 AM:
on volume
in an uptrend as you traverse from the left to right (pt 2-3) side volume should dry up as it approaches the supporting/right trend line and increase as it bounces off and upward...if it breaks down on increasing volume then clearly the trend is broken.

the hardest part is getting a handle on a traverse or reversal...so you can always look at the stochastic and macd hist readings.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-07-03 10:27 AM:
7/07
The second point 3 is often a parallel channel too the two pt 2s.
So if you see that you were in a rocket, had two pt 2s like dawgs pic shows, draw a parallel line from your original point 1 and a pt parallel too where the two pt 2 lines would be. this is the right side of the channel. You can see the price jsut bounced off that level before making its last traverse to the other side.

Once slaloming started, you can see on the 1 min that the time between peaks was 1 hour. Therefore, the optimal times to reverse would be every half hour. Although i psoted the 1 min, the peaks seem more obvioius on the 5.

[color=bluePosted by dawg on 07-07-03 10:31 AM:
nwbprop
hey that is a sweet spot on the timing aspect...had not noticed that...new tool for the kiddies.[/color]

Posted by jack hershey on 07-07-03 11:45 AM:
great dialog.
thanks for the Q' and their corresponding A's.

We are getting to several good strong monitoring goals at this point.

With regard to fitting stuff together. Try to operate off the 5 min primarily. This will take the "suddenly" thinking out of the picture.

Second, I do see people here posting sequence segments. they are really a good improvement on being conscious of market flow.

In the summmer, it is good to calibrate yours selves to a lower level of trading. This means that lesser volume will probably cause the same prior type reaction and that lesser volume will sustain a trend.

As you keep stop logs, if necessary you can go to a faster fractal for mini formation details. Don't get in the habit of being on the 1 min ever though.

When you see that the stoc stays entwined on the tape lines (80/20) it means that there is a slower than rocket level trend still going on. At the same time when you see the channel not getting to the left side, you correctly are going into the slalom "change" mode that calls for reversals. As people catch on to the periodicity (You are speaking of it now) it gets much easier to squeese out slaloming max points. You make them both ways on the slaom so they do add up.

I see that mostly everyone has the rockets nailed now. and you are getting points 1,2,3 done and are willing to move point 3 as required.

you ill notice the slalom ends as the CCC goes through its sequence. Congestion is good reversal territory and so it the first half of convergence. Use centering to set up your brackets outside of scalpimg. (scalping, if any is on the higher centering volume.)

with brackets arond 13:00 plus (like now) you get into the BO and if it fails you slalom with a reversal if it goes then the stop log is your focus.

Reminder. Use what you now know for wash trades. you will notice that you do get out with small profit from now on because you are conscious of the periodicity of the congestion and it gives you a positive attitude that a swing will come up to get a flat or better exit.

As we stop all losses, you will see a big shift in money velocity over the week of trading.

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-07-03 02:44 PM:

dawg, thanks for your reply. its hard to tell how clos to look because on the 5minute chart the 10:10 bar didn't fully traverse the channel which is on my list of another potential flaw besides the ones i put beofre. ive seen jack find flaws on the 1minute chart many times, thats whats confusing to me as to were to look, the 1minute, the 5minute, or like your chart the 2minute.

Try stepping back for a minute. Everyone myself most off all wants to take on more than they understand. Start with just trading pure rockets.
the only criteria both stocs above 80 (below 20)and macd above .4 (below -.4).
close out when fast stoc leaves the range
then when you see entwining hold on a little longer.

its frustrating because most of the rockets will fail, but once you 'see' that then it becomes a lot easier to see the next part; reversals out of non-entwining rockets....

[color=bluePosted by CrescitEundo on 07-07-03 02:52 PM:
Re: nwbprop

Quote from dawg:[/color]

hey that is a sweet spot on the timing aspect...had not noticed that...new tool for the kiddies.

thanks

Newby,

the time periodicity tool is ridiculous. without it I would have gotten burned today after the rocket. I am still working on recognizing when it works well and getting the period earlier but this gets a big thank you again Jack


Using the term "ridiculous" is very appropriate for the major emphasis this idea deserves. Trading reaks with periodicity. It is the major PEOPLE factor in making money. It is a commentary on Attention span and the permenance of "opinions". As the collective opinion of the market's values moves, dynamically, you see "waves' in the balance of bublic opinion. It does not change over the years.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-07-03 04:06 PM:

Quote from Walther:

snip......

While i appreciate you trying to help, i think you are off base with your suggestions. Jack stresses plateau after plateau of sucesses. IF you have just started out, begninner rockets should be the only trade you learn FIRST. I assume this is the level you are at since you dont quite understand the intermediate level yet.

If you want to learn Jack's intermediate/expert level(still jacks method, just not begninner), then slaloming requires that you know what pace the market is at. This can be deduced from C&R. Jack has been stressing this lately and i think that this is next required conciouss realization for begininners to reach the intermediate/expert level.

I am sure you will 'get it" as soon as you find yourself reading jacks posts over and over and over again from the first post too post 160 until you cant undertand anything new.

IT has taken me a minimum of 20 times to read Jack's posts until i had a very good understanding of what he was trying to convey.
Just to give you an idea. I am neither a genius or idiot. I graduated from the University of Pennsylvania(by the way, i hate that mr mrket went to the same school) with a dual degree. Their is just a lot of info in each post.
 
Posted by Moz on 07-07-03 08:58 PM:

jc's chart
On JC's chart on the previous page there appears to be a stall formation at 10:39 to 10:49. Does anyone know if this is the correct orientation for a stall in a trend? Is this the correct time frame to see a stall or hitch? A new point 2 formed at 10:59 but the stall apppears before point 1, Is this correct? any comments please.

By the way thanks to everyone who posts here, your posts and charts help immensely
What you are observing is the end of the trend. Typically what happens after a rocket is CCC. which is what you are observing here. the things that you would look at to see this are 1 the trend channels breaking, and 2 the stocs leaving the range. I closed out my position about 10:42.

a fast pace rocket will sometimes rezoom into the same trend but usualy go into CCC and rarely reverse. Atleast this is how i saw it.

(it is worth noting i had a little trouble with my data feed and in the mornign my charts looked a little different then the ones posted, i knew this and i was looking a little harder to close out)

Posted by nwbprop on 07-08-03 06:58 AM:
Re: jc's chart
Quote from Moz:

Is this the correct time frame to see a stall or hitch? By the way thanks to everyone who posts here, your posts and charts help immensely

I only post the 1 minute because thats where i look to watch when i make executions. I base my trades off the 5 min. Find yourslef becoming more content using the 5 instead of the 1 min. I think the 5 gives a more optimal view of the market than the 1 min(not to mention jack sais to use the 5).

There are 3 trends that are possible; up trend, down trend, and lateral trend. Yesterday, following the up trend rocket, we were shifting into a lateral trend for the rest of the day with a few centerings in between. The begninning of the lateral trend(CCC) out of an uptrend (rocket) usually begins with the failure to traverse in the rocket.

CCC or lateral trend is when intermediates start slaloming. This is where i am at; learining to slalom. Hope everyone has a good day trading today.

Posted by jack hershey on 07-08-03 10:47 AM:
Re: timing
You can see at ET that most methods all involve timing.

We are now at the point where we emphasis the chart time axis for many many things.

The essential aspect of keeping stop logs, keeping a C&R schedule according to the market pace, using fractal pairs, formations, indicators, etc. is all done in a timing milleux.

Naturally, we also use the signals in a way that, by prior adjustments, they are leading reather than lagging. This is because of the signals we choose and because of the way we use a pseudo calculus on ststisically derived indicators.

By not predicting but using an orthogonal concept to predicting ( "anticipation") on a matrix where flaws block potential paths, e get to a place where our monitoring leads the market movement.

We place market tools at all times to allow the market to move to them and we also use market orders to affect keeping us on the "right" side of the market at all times.

No one on ET can remain is an intellectual position for a long time that advocates only one way of doing anything. There are always many ways.

I have been overlaying levels of stuff on the basics. Because it is necessary to be successful from the start, I consider this as a learning strategy that exceeds others because it makes people rich sooner and faster and minimizes the capital required to get started.

I recommend for any approach that people use that they learn to do wash trades along side a good low risk money making simple approach. The approach, above all should keep the person out of the market at all times when the initial money making approach does not apply...

Getting rich is a pervasive aspect of our culture. I am approaching getting rich from a very clean systemmatic way. Working through levels of skill and making a person more elligible to trade based upon successes is a self policing low risk strategy.

People who do otherwise severely penalize their families and themselves. This is not a "my way or the hiway" statement. what it says is that there is a path that simultaneously cleans up garbage, minimizes risk, and replaces myths with self proven fundamentals that apply to the system in use (the market).

Let me clarify how this works as a model by synthesis. There are not forks in the road. We are building a sphere starting at the center. The universe we are headed towards gives us a larger and larger sphere where by everything in the sphere has continuing application and we are not just composing a surface of a sphere on which to operate. And it is a dynamic model that has a fluidity that allows us to always be at the right place at the right time.

As you get richer, you can play more. The curve is simply a learning curve that I try to optimize. The uppermost level is unknown to me. I have been on the curve for 47 plus years and I am self taught and my ability to replicate this stuff in as wide a universe of persons is a circumstance that is important to me to understand. Thus I read many many threads here and I track an assortment of people. ET is a splendid place to find out why people can't make money, why people get stuck, why people carry garbage and myths and why and how people succeed quite nicely.

I sometimes do respond to people in other threads who are at neat turning points in their lives. All people have the potential to be rich. All people can do it in the markets.

Walter is a fork in the road type person and as such he says dont do...........if you want to achieve........... The sphere doesn't have forks like walter does. Walter has experienced me responding to another person's whatever with a simple alternative for making so much money. I also worked with others where they were to support their progress.

Now this is different. I am laying out the whole nine yards here. where we wind up is with two software packages that handle the equities markets and the futures commodity indexes. Like any lawyer would, and I am ot a practicing lawyer, I have the software design done and I use it manually. The equities is done in C language and made money at a rate that is calculated from a 6 months real money trading log and as done by someone other than me using it. The software for the commodities is on paper and I use it manually. I have a wall like a storey board thing where it resides on 7 levels of detail.

I continually try to connect to get the stuff I have hardened up into a give away status.

To get it (software) done is like when I asked here for someone to give me text for the journal that I could slip in belatedly to keep the journal clean. I asked for this after I got the journal straightened out by using my powers here to "fix" it. I am taking several people here through some one on one education as a way to upgrade their existance. You can see they either learn what I want them to or they keep getting the lesson and they will get additional lessons too.

The only way to get a tranferable method done is to learn from the potential users continually. I am getting that done as e go along. I have piles of paper here now that are edited and I do have a way to get it into the journal.

When I do and it is posted, then the people here can use it as a reference building plock for the process they have acheived on their way to being rich.

I am sure new people will show up and skip along and have repeated difficulties. everyone is helping others out now and that will continue ad nauseum, fortunately.

This post is to be helpful to you in that it explains the modus as a synthesis and not a fork in the road thing. What this stuff does is make a support system for any method. You pick and choose to add to what you have. Gradually what evolves is something that is quite comprehensicve and operates in a KISS mode. The whole key is going through the iterative process.

People do think that you get a thing that makes money and then you do it. This is a Have, Do, Be orientation. The reality is that you simply BE. Once you decide to be a millionaire, you are one but it has not manifested as yet. This is the BE'ing. The Do'ing is a process of transition. This is where you make yourself into a millionaire. To find out if a person is a millionaire is not taking a look at a FS or a P/L. It is actually looking at the process the person has been through. To get to HAVE, you DO first.

little girls want to be ballerinas. so the get tutus and go to class and but the stuff in the attic. They are in the HAVE, DO, BE orientation. They say I was a ballerina when I was a little girl. Berishnikov went the other way BE DO HAVE. He was a ballerina from day one. I know guys have a different name.

I am processing in ET a bunch of millionaires. when i sit around with millionaires who have been fully processed and have their manifestations all around them, it is delightful. They all have one thing in common. They use their professional skills to help others out.

Tuck a little note in a place that is a safe place. Write it out. Say it to affirm it and lets move on. BE DO HAVE.
 
Quote from nwbprop:

Today was a very very tough day for taking rockets. We seem to be in a rangy day(slaloming) today.

From open until about 9:50 we were in a 5 min top too trough interval. At 9:50, it looked like some funk shit(change) was happening. I felt that this change would be a great time to short. I therefore shorted at 9:53. At this point i was kind of lost. the short had gone my way but i was not sure where to cover. We had reached the low of the day at 10:00, so i decided that maybe i should cover and get long(i was wrong). Since i was wrong i wanted to see what the optimal points to cover and get long would be. After reviewing, I found that the VOLUME SPIKES would have been the optimal point at which i should have covered and reversed. It seems like the volume has to be at least twice the normal volume and at least 2 bars with that amount of volume. You can also see that it would have been a great sell on the up side at 10:36-38. I circled them in the post so that you can see. Anwyay, tough day for me as i am flat for the day in the spys. I have not checked this with past graphs, so i may be wrong.

Great post.

It is very important for everyone to read this carefully.

Today was not a day that mostly anyone could trade.

When there is no trading there is no trading. By searching and looking very carefully for clues you come to the proper conclusions. The volume just wasn't there to maintain a market. There was as usual a OHLC data and it was just so slow and lateral. We are in a summer condition here and it follows a weekend holiday as well.


What makes this post so great is how the poster is looking at the market thoroughly and rationally and not "doing" for the sake of "doing". This is excellent stuff here.

The person is making a thorough effort and stay flat. Flat is the place to be and he is doing it as he "seeks" a greater sensitivity. As the level of sensitivity is recognized, then what is called "rough" is just the practical matter of going through a day and not trading because there was no oppotunity. It is "rough" to not be able to trade.

What happened clearly was no money was lost in a market that was not tradable. You cannot imagine what a strong success it is to be in a place where you "see" this stuff and just say "the potential of the market is zero today" and say it at the end of the day.

Well done.

Oddiduro slip a few charts up there for the next few days so we can see what you see.

Posted by oddiduro on 07-09-03 02:29 AM:
Re: Re: 7-08

Thank you for telling why I didn't make any money today after making 9 points yesterday. Lateral trends just kill me, and I have yet to find a system that these sideways days just don't chew up.

The chart I have attached is using your settings for the Macd and Stochastics. The trendline on the volume indicator is set for 5000 on the 5 min chart.

The painted bars on the chart show where stocastics has risen above 75 or fallen below 25.

The Rockets indicator is simply the MACD difference with the MACD lines removed, since it is the difference that we actually trade on.

I understand clearly the channels, so is a failed rocket simply when price fails to cross the channel? Or is it when Stocastics falls out of the 75 or above the 25 zones? I got it mixed up somewhere out there.

I see better now that when price fails to cross the channel, then we need to get out when price breaks the right side of the channel.

Then the sloloming begins, and this is where I get hung up. Do I switch to the 1 minute chart at this point and look for rockets, or do look at lateral trend channel parameters on the 5 min and trade them with the 1 minute?

We change our modus to "change" strategy. All your stops are reversal stops. Before we get to stop however, we trade a market reversal. You will see this as we get into it in September.
 
Re: 7-08
Quote from oddiduro:

The chart I have attached is using your settings for the Macd and Stochastics. The trendline on the volume indicator is set for 5000 on the 5 min chart.

The painted bars on the chart show where stocastics has risen above 75 or fallen below 25.

The Rockets indicator is simply the MACD difference with the MACD lines removed, since it is the difference that we actually trade on.

I understand clearly the channels, so is a failed rocket simply when price fails to cross the channel? Or is it when Stocastics falls out of the 75 or above the 25 zones? I got it mixed up somewhere out there.

I see better now that when price fails to cross the channel, then we need to get out when price breaks the right side of the channel.

Then the sloloming begins, and this is where I get hung up. Do I switch to the 1 minute chart at this point and look for rockets, or do look at lateral trend channel parameters on the 5 min and trade them with the 1 minute?

A response

Some little input to your info here.

I would suggest to you that you display the stochastics. Why? Because entwining is an important element for rockets... which you cannot see with your TS programmed bars. Also with the MACD an important thing is to know how far away the MACD lines are from the signalline.. with only the histogramm on the display you are not able to get that information. At least for me entwining so far seems to be a key element combined with 123 for rockets.
Here is yestarday afternoons chart. THere is a about 2 hours of slaloming with a 25 minute interval for every reverse. Following slaloming was a pace flaw, then centering, then BO into the rocket long. I had done most things correctly trading only from the 5 minute. I did use the 1 min for the BO out of the centering.
Hope this helps a little.

I have problems not being able to see if a stall in a push in price after centering is a reversal or continuation. Usually if i wait and its a reversal, i lose like 5 cents. I think i should be waiting though to verify the reversal as continuation can give you a lot more money like yestardays afternoon rocket; i mistakenly got out on the stall after intitial BO.

Use mulitiple stoch parameters!
To increase your sentivity in trading, originally Mr. Hershey proposed to use two more parameters in stoch, and they are-
(5, 2, 3), (10, 2, 3), plus the original (14, 1, 3). When all are pointing the same plus macd (5, 13, 6) confirmations with volume; you can go ahead into trade.

Trading is still an art. Wash trading or small loss is more important to grasp than winning. Finally, after rocket and slalom, you should able to do reversal from fail rocket. Hope, this help to further your success in trading world.

This is something I'm sure if it is so. Because in one of the last posts of Mr. Hershey he stated that the 1413Stoch alone is good enough for rockets... but if there are further infos on that I will listen closely.

I'm in a srtong rocket downward Time: 10:59

I'm working with ES mini currently but I will move to the Euro Stoxx 50 Future in the next weeks with Jacks Method to see how it does in other markets.

Posted by nwbprop on 07-09-03 10:26 AM:
manz66,

I appreciate your help here. I was wondering if i may ask you a few questions regarding what you said above.

You say that after you have slaloming and rockets down, you should proceed to failed rocket reversals. I have often seen that failed rocket reversals would make a lot of money. I find though that i sometimes try to anticapte the failed rocket before it actaully fails and do not take the initial rocket signal; this only happens if we already had at least 1 failed rocket for the day becasue i think after 1 faield rocket the market is more prone to more failed rockets. This thinking is probably wrong though.

Do you take every rocket signal or do you know when a rocket is gonna fail so you only take the reversal trade? Since i have a hard time knowing if a rocket is gonna fail, my guess would be to take every rocket signal and only reverse when it fails.

Also, at what point do you know the rocket has failed(what are your flaws) and time to take a reverse, divergence of the fast line and slow line with fast going through 80 or 20?

Also, once the fialed rocket goes your way, what is the next part of the sequence? do you look for continuation and a rocket or do you look to get out when the stoch hits 50% line?

yesterday, i got short on a failed rocket reverse but was lost because i did not know the following branches of the tree for the failed rocket reverse.


Posted by dawg on 07-09-03 11:07 AM:
Re: Re: Use mulitiple stoch parameters!

Quote from nwbprop:

here is my 2 cents on failed rocket and how i played it today....

quick side comment: at some point you will be getting into trades before they become rockets. for ex:good macd hist reading +.40 and stoch crosses 50...so in essence you will be taking every rocket b/c you are already in the trade.
if you are not there yet i would recommend taking every rocket...get the method down and and the points will come.

i always reverse out of failed rocket.

this morning i was long from 996.00 and it moves into rocket territory stalls sideways and leaves the rocket zone....it made no upward price movement while in the rocket zone, so i will reverse on the failure

so the question becomes where/when do you reverse...there isn't one correct spot...you can wait for the macd xo...chart formation b/d...vol pickup on the downside. i got short at 1007.50.

so now you are short....what can happen...could be a slow up trend...sideways...or downtrend...the next pivot area is the 50% stoch...pt 2-3 traverse.

today that was 1005 area...right where we bounced/sideways...just monitor the action here don't panic...is vol drying..vol increasing upwards...let the bars close and monitor.

quick head fake up and mkt rolls over...check out the 10:45 readings s(20,36) -0.65 macd hist...great reading for our short...turns into a rocket...you get price/vol spike at 10:55 (this is where i exited at 1000.50)

rocket is still there...forms a bear flag which b/d into anothe price/vol spike and here we get a 5m macd divg...trend over/mkt bottom...look to reverse if still short on the rocket ending.

here is how i look at it:

rocket fails-->macd xo-->crosses 50-->rocket

hope this helps. this is how i played it.

Dawg
Thanks. your last post is very helpfull, there were a couple things you said that i hadn't thought about.

one question the initial long at (996?) was that your first trade of the day? why did you take it - was it out of anticipation of the rocket? if so why didn't you try a short before (around 9:45)?

thanks Dawg, def helps. My problem is that i usually get the failed roccket reverse but dont knwo where to exit once it goes my way. This post def helped clear up what i should be looking for next.

especially the macd xo-->crosees 50-->rocket.

I also look to get in before the rocket forms. I got in the long rocket prematurely at 106.5 and exited at 108.5 when it broke my right side of the channel along with the divergence of the stoch. If i had gotten short on the reversal, i would have stayed short only until the stoch bounced off 50% and was forming a point 3.

i think from now on i will look for continuation and point 3 after the failed rocket reverse. If the failed rocket reverse ends up being a wash after it hits 50 % line, then we are in a slow uptrend or lateral trend. IF this is the case, i think we would probably end up slaloming for a little while.

anyway, thanks for the help and I am glad to hear you are having a good day.

Quote from CrescitEundo:
Here are all my trades for today, so i did try a short early in the day...i got long on the pullback of the hod b/o...looking for it to turn into a rocket...i had the mkt brakceted after my intial short failed.

1. lod b/d
short: 1003.00
cover: 1005.25 –2.25

2. hod b/o
long: 1006.00
sell: 1008.00 +2.00

3. rocket failure reversal
short: 1007.50
cover: 1000.50 +7.00

4. macd divg rocket end reversal
long: 999.00
sell: 999.50 +0.50
 
Quote from dawg:



here are all my trades for today, so i did try a short early in the day...i got long on the pullback of the hod b/o...looking for it to turn into a rocket...i had the mkt brakceted after my intial short failed.

1. lod b/d
short: 1003.00
cover: 1005.25 –2.25

2. hod b/o
long: 1006.00
sell: 1008.00 +2.00

3. rocket failure reversal
short: 1007.50
cover: 1000.50 +7.00

4. macd divg rocket end reversal
long: 999.00
sell: 999.50 +0.50

Good work. The last few pages are terrific. See the cestion below:


Stops comments to a person holding out for a 10 point target

This was transferred in from another thread.

Simple up grade. If you stay focused, you will notice how your stop effort is flowing.

Do this:

Keep a log on the stops that may be possible in between the ones you actually use.

Note for yourself how frequently you already C&R.

If you can use your available monitoring time this way, then you are ready to "double down".

In using a method like you are, you rightly constrain your playing time during high volume periods only.

High volume periods are rich with opportunity if you are disciplined.

As you all notice, you have chosen profit targets that net you 3 to 4 trades a week at a 10 point level. This is NAS points. 30 to 40 points a week can be divided into your capital and you sense in the near term multiples of capital occurring. This grants you the right to do more than 1 contract.

It also grants you something else.

If you looked for other signals, You would see them. Once you see them, then you have the right to continue to add to your skill base and make your money velocity higher.

At this stage of performance no matter what you do, you usually double your take. These are easy stages of learning to be more efficient.

What you may see is that the trades you didn't get 10 points on are trades that you CAN get 10 points on. Two 5's is there and you are earning the right to take the two 5's.

The signal you need to decide to go into a Two 5's mode is not being observed as yet. Itis actually the signal you are getting saying you won't make the 10 points.

You need to consider my comments for the simple reason that you can know ahead of not making the 10 points thatyou are not going to.

In the 4 weeks you are devoting to getting theright to do two contracts, also consider giving yourself a sereis of rights which each time you do, you "double down" on profits.

Obviously the rules of the first post are not the only set of this kind. anyone using a set that gets similar results, can do"doubling down". The thread reapidly shiftedawayfrom the inital rules to theconsideration of 30 to 40 points a week.

Look closely if you will.

You see that your stop process is working one way or another usually. The 10 point reward way or not the 10 point reward way. As you get the signal (I will give it to you in detail later) that there is no 10 point profit ahead, you need to do something to always be on the "right" side of the trade. By making the first 5 of the "Two 5's" and seeing that there isno 10 point run going to happen, you need to reverse your 1 contract and ride back down to your initial entry. All of this takes the same amount of time as the10point run.

If you develop the discipline to log and C&R stops, you will find that you experience the fact that you can't log nor C&R about half the time. You do the reversal when you can't log.

This will run your weekly take up to 60 to 80 points a week.

The next "double down" is to recognize that you can usually do TWO "Two 5's" in sequence.

lets focus on the signal. you say how you get stops. It is afair way but not an excellent way. Stay with what you do. Notice you have gaps usually in the use of your time. that is okay too but it does trap you once in a while because of attention span difficulties. You pull stop C&R values according to time passing more than micro formations occurring. When you drawablank at the moment you expect a value for processing, you are experiencing the signal. It is a failure to get data in a timely manner. I humorously refer to it as a fog horn not going off when it is foggy. naturally the light house keeper awakens and says: "What wasn't that?" you are looking for whatdoesn't happen to keep you on the path to 10 points. when it doesn't happen is when you reverse and then take the 5 points and do the stop process down to the intial entry value.

As guts would have it, you can repeat this usually if the volume range of values continues AND DOES NOT DROP OFF ANY.

Posted by manz66 on 07-09-03 08:20 PM:
Failed rocket:
What is a rocket? Rocket is not a breakout, because breakout good be one bar, but rocket is multiple bars including a breakout.

Now, many people enter immediately after a breakout or some wait for retracement to see others supporting that breakout.

Rocket other hand you see people have taken position before you in one minute or 5 minute period chart, and driven price to overbought condition (calculated by stoch and macd, etc). So, your expectation is rocket would continue in a steep angle (you decide which slope is a rocket), but if rocket fails, which happen many times; you do wash trade or take a small loss. I mean, if it is a rocket, money velocity should continue not stall (that is where practice comes handy with log).

I do not take reversal with all failed rockets, there are criteria. After a wash or small loss, wait for a breakout bar with increase or dryup in volume. This is not a mechanical trading system, part of it discretionary. Only, through practice and experience plus keeping notes of your trading can make you a better trader (also, you need enough funds to survive, when you are in drawdown, and everybody goes through drawdown).

Certain time of the day, like early morning for rocket, then mid morning for reversal, no trade in lunch hours, then again in the evening look for rocket.

Also, subcribe to live news service for protection. Keeping your funds intact year after year is more important than big wins. That way you can battle another day. Good Trading.

Posted by oddiduro on 07-09-03 09:20 PM:
What I learned today
This is my annotated chart.

The MA ribbon is my innovation, call it a security blanket.

I can see where the rocket and volume will keep me out of lateral trend that is going nowhere.

I changed the stochastics lines to 50. It works much better for me, thanks for the suggestion!

Posted by nwbprop on 07-10-03 09:32 AM:
Thanks Jack for that last post. I think it helps a lot with the questions i had regarding the failed rocket reverse trade. I am going to take a shot at the difference bewteen two 5's and one 10. Usually after the failed rocket, the stochs go to 50%. At this point the volume dies and there is a small pullback. Following the low volume pullback, their can be 2 things; volume resumes back to trend volume and price returns back into the original direction(one 10) or volume resumes back to trend volume and price continues its retrace(two 5's) warranting a reverse. This is just a guess.


steady as we go on this one. we are hitting both sides of the channel on this one. For those in the cross channel groove, keep in mind the frequency of the moves.

Intermediates can go out to a slower fractal where it is tapping and just read the indicator signal sequences there.
 
Quote from oddiduro:

This is my annotated chart.

The MA ribbon is my innovation, call it a security blanket.

I can see where the rocket and volume will keep me out of lateral trend that is going nowhere.

I changed the stochastics lines to 50. It works much better for me, thanks for the suggestion!

If I am messing up anywhere, please feel free to show me.

This is an observation.

People get intrigued with the market and they set up all kinds of stuff to do things.

you will notice that I often suggest to people to put the stuff I do into their operation as they choose. I also suggestthat they get rid of redundancies as they go along.

There is a basis for what I say and how people make these changes. You only get the right to do stuff based on the money you are making.

I'm following many people here asthey progress and I sometimes request stuff from them to see better where they are.

You fit into a category that is a significant one. As you focus on innovations you are passing up getting rich sooner. There is a sharing in the money making. The market does some things and you do others. You are like what you are now and you are bending the market to fit into a mold you are building for it. That is just an observation.

I am an advocate of everyone being rich. It is possible to get rich in a short time by following a path that has very few hazzards. you do not need much money to start. for money management you use a fringe consideration. You use the least money that you can and secondly you only enter when you have the simplest money making opportunities. Along side this you focus singularly on learning to leave the market with no loss.

This above paragraph and all the top part say one thing.

The two pieces are in the greatest contrast that could exist for almost anything.

Here is an admoninition: everyone here should dig up the minimum capital, set up an account and trade one contract. Make money and do wash trades. Rockets and washing. Icebergs and washing. Slaloming and washing.

Next after you are rolling along at a slalom 5 contract level go into the optimization stuff.

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-10-03 10:20 AM:
Quote from bubba7:

Steady as we go on this one. we are hitting both sides of the channel on this one.

For those in the cross channel groove, keep in mind the frequency of the moves.

Intermediates can go out to a slower fractal where it is tapping and just read the indicator signal sequences there.

starting at 10:50 i tried slaloming on a combination of the channel and frequency/ pace of market. As i saw it we were in a 40-45 min cycle
I got in at 10:50 got scared and washed out for a small loss.
I tried getting short around 11:10 and held to what i thought would be about the bottom of the cycle. I got out at 11:34 right before we came off. I got out because i thought we had gone into ccc.
It appears as if whe can go into centering and almost go on hold for half a cycle, something I thought I noticed in the past couple days as well. I am not seeing the right things so i think I need to take a step backwards but would be curious to see how someone who saw it correctly was looking at it.

I recognize that I need to be looking a other indicators at the same time and had been thinking fast/slow stoc xo each other or 1 min crossing to the other side (which had happened at 11:34), any comments? I think i am way off base as this is my 3rd bad day in a row.

trying to get ahead of myself is my biggest problem and i think i am doing it again. how do you know when you are getting ahead of yourself and when you are just struggling to get to the next plateau?

12:18 market time
Look at this bar volatility and the volume trending. All the indicator line pairs are glued together.
Posted by dawg on 07-10-03 10:26 AM:
just keep it simple
look at the 15m...that is the pace today...been in a rocket all morning.

this is going to sound pretty bad, but I guess i am a little confused about the Pace, i thought i knew how to find it but I never really go off the 5 min charts to trade (except anticipating withthe one min).
I take your coment to mean that when you find the pace of the market you then trade off that fractal.
I thought the pace of the market was the lenget of time between cycles

thank you Thank you thank you.

You can only make money as fast as the market gives it o you.

If everyone would take the trouble to, once in a while, take the time to be thorough and proceed with what is so very strong in your collection of skills. Depart from this foundation for sure as you add mortar and granite. we are not throwing up summer beach tents here to just keep the sun out. Man we are building a fortress that pulls in money continually.
The retrace at 11:00 was stronger than the retace at 12:00. You see this on the 5min and you tape on the 15 min.
The VDU on a red line (down trend line) sets up a volume BO.

Volume BO's lead price BO's.

We are seeing the 15 tape continue.

Okay on 15 you see the volume trend slowly going down.

It is a rocket on 15 and we see just the volume decline as a flaw. Meaning the trend is not being fully supported by volume.

We see every day that this is the volume trend each day on the 15 min..
Look at the 15 and find the price support level.

Good work, you see it.
Look at the absolute MACD lines.
I have at 984.2 an intense desire to reverse. But I know I should do it in two steps. Exit and bracket. (5 min)

My second level of thinking is to look at the traverse cycling. People have that timing straight; we are just part way through the cycle time so we sit tight.

Go back to the 15.

I hope this helps. I want you in my shoes. Do not just do stuff.


By seeing through the cycle timeand hitting a VDU you get to the flaw build up period.

The 985 roughly is where the channel xovr occurs.

You can see that the signals are all over the place as we leave the trend.

Because we are riding on the support level and the market is dealing with this. It takes another step after dealing with support to get somewhere else.

My compliments to all those who got to the 15.


We leave trend. We go to neutral. We go onward from there.

It is after 13:15 as we see.
Good job.

This is a very important thing to deal with. Volume tells you what is going on.

Not making it means the trend is deepening. There is a cohort required with price. The volume must increase to support the deepening. If it does not (and it didn't), then you are seeing the market recognizing that the range of trading for the day has been reached.

I know that these things are easy to get and hang on to. But you will be challenging yourself to think them up. I am not thinking them up because I have been there many times and have been where your post shows you to be. It is very important to not shrug.

Shrug is my term for "I'll never get all this stuff together and running smoothly". You are doing it all in fact. The test for knowing that you have it in hand is the Q's that come up. The fact is that if you ask the Q you really have the answer too.

This is the generic gizmo before us. No one can recognize a challenge ever if they can't deal with it. The corrolary is this. Once you have a challenge you can deal with it or not. It will come back over and over until it goes away the one time you deal with it.

FTP coming up on declining volume. Lots of disagreement in the space. Lets see who wins.

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-10-03 11:51 AM:
Ok
I am on the 5 and 15 now (only because Dawg told me to). This is an entirely new experience for me. The flaws i see are the price action not reaching the left side of the channel, and the fast stoc starting to leave the 20 (although it is back now). and finaly the channel broken. If someone, at the end of the day, post their chart with their trend channels that would help me alot. What was the proper trading fractal for the last 2 days? thanks to everyone for your help.
On a day that we open down this much should we expect the market to trade at a slower fractal?
support level in sight.....
"Look at the 15 and find the price support level."

Interesting how things fit. If you look at the Daily on ESxx and see the rt line come into view around 985 ish from when pt#1 & pt#3 were formed back in beginning of April and mid May. What also comes into view on the Daily is a support line from the tops of the bars 980 - 985 ish at the end of June.

I am curious what other peoples' entry point was as well as stops? I have a very hard time with trends that start off with severe retraces.
 
Quote from CrescitEundo:

Ok
I am on the 5 and 15 now (only because Dawg told me to). This is an entirely new experience for me. The flaws i see are the price action not reaching the left side of the channel, and the fast stoc starting to leave the 20 (although it is back now). and finaly the channel broken. If someone, at the end of the day, post their chart with their trend channels that would help me alot. What was the proper trading fractal for the last 2 days? thanks to everyone for your help.
On a day that we open down this much should we expect the market to trade at a slower fractal?
Hope this helps Crescit, my main challenge is not bailing where I note a reversal possiblity.

07-10-03 01:10 PM

You can see that this pm is low volume and like two days ago.

The market is in a summer neutral riding the support.

We note this and have a good reference for the next few days.

thanks it does, that was my original channel but my only question is why you didn't push the channel out when you got a second point 3? I thought we were supposed to but your chart seems to follow what others were saying today

Crescit,

What you are pondering is what I suspect where the art in all this lies. I have no idea why today I didn't move point 3. I just knew not to. If I thought about it too much, I probably would have.

I do wish I knew why, I'd tend to trust myself a lot more. Anyone care to comment?

now...
So the 15m which has been the pace all day...finally leaves the rocket area...and the downtrend channel that has been there all day is broken...long at 984.00

that is how i saw this move that we are in right now

update

3:51 turned into rocket...stalling at chart R 987.50...lower vol...watching closely...

3:54 vol comes in and pushes higher...

3:55 taking gain and calling it a day...out 988.25 +4.25.

A follow on comment by Dawg
Posted by dawg on 07-10-03 02:40 PM:
the dreaded 15m
first off...days like this i usually struggle a great deal...slow moves are killer for me...

mkt opens and clearly we are looking at a short rocket..i waited 15m...saw the lod b/d and entered on the pullback (not the best entry, but that is what i did)

now the mkt is acting all herky jerky on the 5m moving this way and that, but still making lower highs not fast, but slow 996.25...994.25...993.75

it's this kind of action that makes me check the 15 b/c it's down but not fast.

at 10:25 when we got the lod to 994.25 move (still in rocket zone on stoch)...you get the beginning of wide channel...it's this kind of action..wide channels, herky jercky that make me look at the 15m and it just looks clearer and more like a better description of the action...just a slow rocket trend down.

the slower rocket trend is also what keeps me in the trade at 10:35-10:40 where it leaves the rocket zone, but still making lower highs and just on the right side of the channel...now it needs to roll over right here or i would exit (above 944.50) and it does...so stay with the trade.

and now by lookin at the 15m you can easily see the rocket there and you stick with the trade as long as it is within the channel and the 15m looks good...and you expect channel traverse b/c it is a slow rocket.

now here is what i did...i exited on the vol price/spike into the bottom channel and re-entered when it hit the right side of the channel around 11:30.

at 11:20 it gets to the right side again and looks like it might be over, but the 50 is acting like a pivot and again it rolls over.

so your short until either the trend b/u or the 15m rocket ends...and i would also be looking for macd divg on the 15 and 5m charts for trend weakness and always volume.

compare 13:00 and 14:45 macd on the 15m...you have divg and then the rocket ends...boom...i am thinking trend change from short to long when the trend line breaks...b/c 15m rocket is over, 15 and 5 macd divg, and trend b/u...everything is lined up and pointing higher...worst case is wash/small loss.

what i try and do is remember today's action and similar days like it and recognize similar action in the future and now you have a playbook or at least something to lookout for...oh the action is a little f-cked up but still down let's check the 15 and see if it clears things up...and today it smacks you in the face with its rocket short.

i usually f-ck these days up or recognize it too late and wind up breaking even or small loss....you lose enough on these days and slowly it sinks in.

anyways hope this helps.

Posted by CrescitEundo on 07-10-03 03:40 PM:
Dawg
Thank You

You have been extrodinarily helpfull. It is great to be able to hear what someone was thinking when they sucessfully traded a day that killed you.

dawg, thanks for the narrative.

Everyone who is gaining a good and sensitive way to look at the market action is in a transition. As our objectivity or what ever it is grows, it allows us to let go of past stuff. This occurs after we have put something in place that improves a weaker part of what we do. Both these kinds of actions show us how we are progressing.

You used to not get past a point 3 without extrordinary machinations. I feel that you really are doing a great job by going to the 15 to read the indicators during a slower pace trend.

The fact is that it is great to nail short term rockets for a goodly number of points. When there is a slower pace, you simply find the rocket on the 15. And it is definitely a grind to bring in the chips.

Today I tried a short synopsis of my feelings at the 984.2 place. I was trying to express that it is difficult to ride along.

The turn on the support leevel was a two part sequence. The VDU at 15:10 was the final throws of the first part ending. We could have drilled out a couple of points below 985 going each way there. That is not too important though.

What was important was soaking your way through the time that it took to end the trend, then play on the support, then reverse into the end of the day.

We are getting to a place where pulling more than the daily H/L range is slipping into view.

We saw today that the slow pace drove us to the 15 where the rocket was. we are noticing that we have timeto do stuff. we also notice that there are fewer and fewer times when we can't wash easily and where we get into places where we leave money on the table.

Soon what represents the past similar situations to you will be a set of continuous pulling money out of the market episodes. All of this is showing up for you.

Only discard stuff after you have a thoroughly operating sequence set that you can do an event check off as the sequence unfolds. To day showing the troops how to slip up to the fifteen and just reas the same script the rocket gives us was very very kewl indeed.

Posted by oddiduro on 07-11-03 02:00 AM:
Assignment from 7-10
Okay Jack, Dawg, et. al.

This is my chart from yesterday. All innovations have been removed.

No 24 hour data. Setup as per the Catch Up and Tool Box Journals.

I went back and reviewed the thread, I thought the Macd was the rocket, when it is actually the 3 point channel. The Macd is only to determine flatness.

The Stochastics is showing an iceberg that lasted all day long.

The first one is of the 5 min chart, the next one is the same chart at 15 min resolution.

Please get out your red pens, if needed.
Personal added comment: This was a major charting break through primarily because of the reasoning process involved to decied to do it. It takes a lot for a person who is used to innovating to stick with following a prescription as a beginning point. It is July and this single action is going to put the person months and months ahead by the end of the year.
Next Chart
This is the next chart. Hopefully I am making some headway

Posted by oddiduro on 07-11-03 02:11 AM:
I noticed something
I noticed on the 15 min chart, the blue channel. Since a breakout is evident here, does this suggest an up day tommorrow?

Is this what you meant by anticipating the market, Jack, or do I need to hit the threads again?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top