Futures Going To Get Killed Tonight!!!

The market will react poorly to the economic numbers tha keep stairing them in the face....and bernanke will remind them that just b/c the bond market has priced in IR cutes for 2007, this is premature....in fact he may have to raise IR to contain inflation as the current number is uncomfortably high by their STATED standards. Something will have to give tomorrow......either the bond market adjusts upward...or bernanke loses all credibility...and the dollar tanks even further fast.
 
BlueStreek
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 152



Registered: Sep 2006 :p
Probably banned from other boards, now he came here.
I wonder if Mommy and Daddy know he's doing this...:D
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

The dow down 60 on just terrible news...then up 45 on no news....and in 10 minutes down 4 for the day....yet futures 23 points higher than levels they couldn`t sustain during regular trading hours. All with the worst economic reports and speakers taking center stage friday with a massive snowstorm coming east. This market has gotten very "irrationally exuberant" right now where all the bs spin that energy prices have helped the consumer....(numbers said otherwise), energy prices moderating (not really) economy is performing well (not according to durable goods) and on and on.....bernanke will have to address the fact that there is high divergence between the fed`s stated inflation fighting policy and the bond market`s expectations from the fed. I look for tough talk out of three fed speakers tomorrow, or else the crash will just be even more dramatic once it occurrs.

These markets have been goosed up right here and are so full of hot air that we are looking at over a 1,000 point drop just to get back to reasonable valuations considering we are starring right down the barrell of decelerated growth prospects for the forseeable future (namely, the first two quarters in 2007).

The real kicker which everyone has completely wrong is that the fed will not be able to cut rates to save housing, in fact, it looks like they will have to raise rates in 2007, and this fact is not being priced into the bond markets, gold markets, currency markets or the equities.

When this bubble crashes, and people start defaulting on the loans they borrowed from various credit sources (carry trades), to invest in higher returning places like the equity markets, which they thought would subsidize these loans through 25-40% returns, the dow could easily drop 2,000-3,000 points from here.

We are going to have painful reverberations throughout the credit community as a result of this irrational liquidity and cheap capital SLOSHING AROUND RIGHT NOW.

This is very similar to the craziness of the ARMS finacing of the housing bubble that we haven`t begun to face up to yet when those hit the market next year.

People fall into the same patterns of 'irrational exuberance' towards the end of every bull market!
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You still don't get it. The market very rarely does what the average Joe thinks its going to do. It has its own timetable. You are correct in your analysis, but this could go on for months, and by then things might improve in the economy and you will turn into a bull. Just as soon as that happens, the market will probably tank and you will be spewing about the irrationality of the market. Give it up and take what the market is willing to give you. Fighting strong trends is a losing strategy.
 
i`m making a 1,000-1,500 every day just being a market maker for puts here.......so it ain`t all bad....its just when bad news is ignored....that means the market is being moved not by fundamentals....but by money inflows, which is bad b/c you are creating an artificially high market.......which means.....it will not go down according to fundamentals in a stable manner....all I am saying....is just that like condos in miami....when price drops....it drops a whole lot faster, and with even less stability going down...and in the long run......this is bad for investor`s confidence, i.e., bad for markets.....bad for healthy, stable market places. This is why retail investors left the last time, and went into real estate.
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

i`m making a 1,000-1,500 every day just being a market maker for puts here.......so it ain`t all bad....its just when bad news is ignored....that means the market is being moved not by fundamentals....but by money inflows, which is bad b/c you are creating an artificially high market.......which means.....it will not go down according to fundamentals in a stable manner....all I am saying....is just that like condos in miami....when price drops....it drops a whole lot faster, and with even less stability going down...and in the long run......this is bad for investor`s confidence, i.e., bad for markets.....bad for healthy, stable market places. This is why retail investors left the last time, and went into real estate.
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ok.. whatever you say PORGIE:eek:
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

its just when bad news is ignored....that means the market is being moved not by fundamentals....but by money inflows, which is bad b/c you are creating an artificially high market
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The market is what it is. It's not artificial. It's a reflection of investor sentiment and perception, NOT FUNDAMENTALS. If it was about fundamentals you would not have rising stocks of companies that haven't made a dime in five years. You also wouldn't have companies trading for 50-100 times next year earnigs.

If your premise was correct then ecnomists would make the best traders in the world. From what I can determine, they make the worst. That should tell you something. You don't know more than the best economic people in the world and even if you did the market wouldn't reflect it anyway.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

...You are correct in your analysis...
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He is?

DOW 9,000?

I guess that does sound more realistic than DOW 36,000... But from 12,000 to 9,000 because of one more fed hike??? Seriously...? He's correct...?

I hereby retract my previous statements in this thread... My statements in the other "Sky is Falling" threads still stand, I just don't want to be grouped with Mr. BS on this one...
 
Quote from 2manywhiners:

He is?

DOW 9,000?

I guess that does sound more realistic than DOW 36,000... But from 12,000 to 9,000 because of one more fed hike??? Seriously...? He's correct...?

I hereby retract my previous statements in this thread... My statements in the other "Sky is Falling" threads still stand, I just don't want to be grouped with Mr. BS on this one...
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His analysis is correct that the market is due for a correction. That's all.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:


If your premise was correct then ecnomists would make the best traders in the world. From what I can determine, they make the worst. That should tell you something. You don't know more than the best economic people in the world and even if you did the market wouldn't reflect it anyway.
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Stop bashing us ecnomists !



:p
 
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