During the 2000 crash and 2008 financial crisis business’s were fully operating and injections by the fed helped. This time, business is closed as is the supply chain amd demand is retrenching despite people having money. People are scared and ceo’s have absolutely no visibility. How lower rates will compel people to go out and spend money or business invest in capital despite there being a true health crisis is beyond me.
Rates are now zero for all intents and purposes and the fed really cant do much else.
If the market keeps dropping what will the fed do ????
How can you wrap your arms around an epidemic we know nothing about and have no idea how bad it can get.
Even with the financial crisis you can analyze a balance sheet and assets to see how bad things could actually get and lowering rates would work. This is different.
The Trump rally will be completely wiped out. There will be a bottom but i am thinking we take out some more lows first.
I guess this is my 4th crash (OK, Boomer! -- but not quite).
Each one was a big shakeout, of course. Can't say I've got my bearings on this one, but I'm reflecting. It seems to have something in common with 1987 -- the politics (get Reagan at any cost), the psychology of the productive population (VERY optimistic, with good reason), the media coverage (decidedly gleeful about a trainweck). But of course each one is different and by virtue of the fact that this IS the fourth in a lifetime, it must be more hard edged and cynical as a result. And there are differences: information technology, absurdly low interest rates, consolidations of power in finance and media, crazy factor, and proximity to the eventuality of Armageddon.
That there is, as we say on my other favorite web haunt, "some fuckery afoot," there can be no doubt. I do think the malign actors behind this latest rout are going for broke.
Just now I lean toward it taking longer than anyone wants it to for the ship to right - capital is really getting whacked; at times I have spasms (as I did while walking through Wall Street today) like, "Holy shit, this could really be the beginning of the end (visions of cascading defaults here and abroad)..." but of course the odds are probably just as good that I'm surprised on the upside.
What do I mean "ship to right?" We were in the midst of a roaring fucking bull market. We are in an age of unparalleled opportunity. The Unicorn Age was just that: a mirage, a daydream. The day is now upon us.
Anyway, who knows how bad it can get. But to underestimate the resolve and now, the hard-earned experience with this sort of thing that Americans have, is to risk being on the wrong side of the trade. This time it might just be a fight to the death.