Futures are bright red!

I trade purely off TA. Clearly we are at the top of a long term uptrend channel resistance. There is nothing to suggest the uptrend is over.
 
Here are a couple of similar rallies and their percentage gains (rounded off percentages):

Aug-1982 thru Aug-1987 (60 months). Rally percentage: +231.00%

Mar-1994 thru Mar-2000 (72 months). Rally percentage: +256.00%

Mar-2009 thru Mar-2017 (96 months). Rally percentage: +260.00%
 
ajacobson said:
North Korean missile test - I would have expected more of a reaction.
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I didn't think the market even cared that much on them and their antics.

Although I always wonder when they are going to screw up one of their missile tests and accidentally hit another country. That will give the world the justification to bomb them into oblivion. Or at least a few well placed bombs that will have the same effect. Then it becomes a humanitarian crisis of course though given the state of their population.
 
eganon69 said:
I trade purely off TA. Clearly we are at the top of a long term uptrend channel resistance. There is nothing to suggest the uptrend is over.
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How did your chart look in 1999? How about 2007? 1986?
 
ET180 said:
What catalysts do you see sustaining the major long-term uptrend?
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None, that's been the problem since 2015, we can get up there 20,000 dow, but nothing to propel us onward.But I see nothing on the horizon that looks like a recession is coming so stocks are still the place to be. My worry is that people start justifying higher and higher p/e's because it is different this time. I'm cool with these levels but see no real catalyst and you never do see them until they are in the rear view mirror.
 
ET180 said:
How did your chart look in 1999? How about 2007? 1986?
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Since you asked,... the charts in 2000 and 2007/2008 showed the uptrend was weakening. Yes there was an absolute top noted in both those instances but the top showed a weekly negative divergence on MACD (blue downward slanted line on both those charts). My goal is not to call the absolute top. I may recognize a top in an uptrend but I choose to not add to long positions. I also choose not to short in a short term top on an uptrend but instead wait in cash. Also, as you can see on both 2000 & 2008 when the uptrend was being broken the Weekly MACD was falling as prices got higher (negative divergence) in addition to breaking below the ZERO line (blue ellipse) and at the same time the trend line was breaking while the weekly EMA 50 was curling downward. We have none of that in this chart. Until/If/When the 2000 level is taken out AND all of these parameter hold true on the current chart then all dips should be bought with the assumption that the trend will continue and we are entering a time of LIKELY retracement of prices to about 2200-2250 level. In fact, there is NO negative divergence to even suggest that the trend is tiring out here. In fact it is rising right now. Until proven otherwise the trend is intact but we likely have put in a short term top. So I choose to wait in cash rather than short this market. The 3rd chart shows another perspective of why 2200-2250 level is likely support for current uptrend (pink circle). Could it beak lower?,...yes but I doubt it. I choose to re-evaluate each day and make changes but for now I am waiting.

2000

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2008

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20 year chart

IMG_0349.PNG


My $0.02,

Eganon
 
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