Quote from zdreg:
while an alogrithim may not work could you give a list of warning signals?
it sounds like future firms operate in the same enviroment as banks did before having mandatory insurance.
why don't future firms have private insurance?
I already gave (incomplete) lists of warning signals. More than once. Read my past posts on the subject.
Insurance is not available for every type of risk, because some risks, like the risks of losing funds in a futures broker bankruptcy, are so unpredictable, and so enormous, that no insurance company can afford to take them. Take, for example, the risk of nuclear war or nuclear accident. Check your homeowner's insurance policy, and you will find that damage caused by either is not covered. You can't purchase nuclear war insurance or nuclear accident insurance. If you could purchase it, do you really think you could count on it to pay your claim? Why can't you purchase insurance to protect against a global financial crisis? People once thought they could insure against stock market crashes, by dynamically hedging with put options - and the result was the great crash of 1987, in which this "portfolio insurance" strategy didn't work.
The ancient Roman poet, Juvenal, two thousand years ago, asked "Who will watch the watchers?" Ask yourself, "Who will insure the insurers?"
The purpose of futures trading is to shift risk from one party to another. Somebody, somewhere, actually has to take the risk. The buck must stop somewhere. The risk, that a particular futures market participant will have uncovered trading losses, is shared by all other customers participating in the same pool of customers operated by their futures broker. If a major market event, or some other misfortune, wipes out some of the customers of a futures broker, and also their broker's capital, then their non-defaulting fellow customers, in the same segregated pool of the same broker, are next in line to cover the losses, which are simply seized from the accounts of the fellow customers.
If you trade futures, then YOU YOURSELF ARE providing insurance. You are insuring counterparties to your broker's customers trades, against losses caused by other customers trading in the same segretated pool at the same broker. YOU ARE the insurer. Nobody is willing to take the other side of your offer to lay off your risk onto somebody else. Other exchange members, and the exchanges themselves, are also obligated to step in to cover losses, but only after the customer accounts are first totally drained.
Markets, as currently structured, do not provide any incentive for private insurers to provide what you seek. I believe Canadians do get some insurance coverage of their futures accounts, but this results from government mandates, not the free market.
The U.S. government provides very limited bank deposit insurance and SIPC insurance, because it is in the public interest to encourage the middle class to use the banking system and to invest in the stock market. Is it in the public interest to encourage the middle class to speculate in futures? If your answer is "yes", then do you think that you could sell your view to politicians and regulators? Do you think that Congress would pass a "No Speculator Left Behind Act?"