Fundamentals in Grains

R

redbull13

Hey everyone,
I've always traded grains strictly from a technical perspective. However, I want to start to implemenet fundamentals. Obviously, the most important fundamental is supply and demand. Weather is also an important factor. I was wondering if anyone could help me out with finding supply and demand numbers for corn/soybeans/wheat/oats and give me tips on how to use them to my advantage. Thanks in advance.
 
I like to follow grains because I have an ag background and it is coffeshop talk in farm country. Here is what I look at.

Start looking at the COT data and understand how the commerical traders and speculators are looking at the market.

Also, remember an old grain market creed, big crops get bigger.

Meaning, if a crop looks like it going to have a big year then it will probably be bigger than expected. Grains like wheat are nothing more than a weed, corn is a cousin to grass, and soybeans can grow without a drop of rain until August.

The greatest benefit to using fundamental info with grains is knowing when a weather scare market is out of line with stocks to usage and carryover amounts.

Another factor I look at is spreads.

Is the Decs/July Spread way out of line with the carry. Even though this is an old crop/new crop spread a July contract that trades wildly above the Decs is something to keep an eye on.

Aaron
 
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