I understand you say that chart trend-following is a trading style that cannot be profitable any more. Yet, there are well known credible players who take the opposite view and provide evidence. As I don't know your credentials and you provide no evidence for what you argue, I can't convert to your argument.
Fundamental for what?
- Thread starter TTT
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I understand you say that chart trend-following is a trading style that cannot be profitable any more. Yet, there are well known credible players who take the opposite view and provide evidence. As I don't know your credentials and you provide no evidence for what you argue, I can't convert to your argument.
No, I said trend following is by far not as profitable as it once was. And your claim that anyone provided evidence to the contrary so far is factually incorrect. I provided evidence on the other hand. Here is the link I alluded to.
http://www.automated-trading-system.com/state-of-trend-following-in-august-4/
http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-august-5/
you can track well known CTAs there and also track generic trend following strategies. The performance is sobering over the past years to say the least.
Most of the guys you listed as trend following gurus have been performing very poorly over the past years.
Here is my evidence. Where is yours? Care to at least apologize in light of the fact that it was me who provided evidence not you?
http://www.automated-trading-system.com/state-of-trend-following-in-august-4/
http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-august-5/
you can track well known CTAs there and also track generic trend following strategies. The performance is sobering over the past years to say the least.
Most of the guys you listed as trend following gurus have been performing very poorly over the past years.
Here is my evidence. Where is yours? Care to at least apologize in light of the fact that it was me who provided evidence not you?
Thanks for posting these links. It seems that 9 of the 12 TF strategies tested were profitable during August for a net overall gain, while the month was profitable for 23 of the 25 Wizards sampled. Seems positive enough and I intend to continue with my trend-following trades.
omg. Did you look at the year to date performance for both? And the prior years? Can you at least make an attempt to be reasonable? It will benefit your intellect and knowledge and experience.
So you're cleverer than me. Who cares. I intend to continue with my trend-following trades.
I am less ignorant to empirical evidence than you. And I never suggested once that you should abort your mission. All I did was suggest to look at empirical evidence and facts. Good luck to you.
One thing that got burned into my mind a million years ago: if a trade goes over an hour, you're no longer a trader, you're an investor.
That still cracks me up.
Fundamental analysis is for investors, not traders.
For day traders, sometimes news generates higher than normal volume / volatility which means greater trading opportunity. But in these cases you look for the higher volume / volatility directly rather than fundamental analysis per se.