Understanding the "odds" behind my trading has been very helpful for me, both in terms of not becoming cocky after a big wiinning streak and not becoming dispondent and losing confidence after a losing spell.
If your system has 30% winners you can expect at some point to have 22 losses in a row. You can also expect to have 9 winners in a row at some point.
40% 19 losses in a row, 11 winners.
50% 14 losses in a row, 13 winners in a row ( I dont know why it is, but every time i run this there are more losses then winners to expect)
60% 10 losses in a row, 14 winners in a row
70% 9 losses in a row, 25 winners in a row
80% 5 losses in a row, 33 winners in a row.
Be sure your risk managment plans in 2004 include provisions that if you hit your loss cluster you will be around to come out of it.
Brandon
If your system has 30% winners you can expect at some point to have 22 losses in a row. You can also expect to have 9 winners in a row at some point.
40% 19 losses in a row, 11 winners.
50% 14 losses in a row, 13 winners in a row ( I dont know why it is, but every time i run this there are more losses then winners to expect)
60% 10 losses in a row, 14 winners in a row
70% 9 losses in a row, 25 winners in a row
80% 5 losses in a row, 33 winners in a row.
Be sure your risk managment plans in 2004 include provisions that if you hit your loss cluster you will be around to come out of it.
Brandon
