Near the end of the year, and I'll shortly be knocking off 'work', so seems like a good time for an update. My last one
was only a few months ago as it happens, but it might be amusing to look at the one I did in
June and the other one
I did a year ago.
First performance, the story of the year is unchanged, a few stellar weeks followed by a meandering journey through the valleys of drawdown and the peaks of high water marks, and currently below the HWM I got in September just before my last update. All in all I'm currently up ~21% (non compounded) for the calendar year, and my current drawdown is ~13%. For the UK tax year I actually track properly, I'm down about 5%. Non compunded annual figures for the last few years look like this:
Code:
>>> x.resample("1Y").sum().round(3)*100
index
2014-12-31 38.4
2015-12-31 26.2
2016-12-31 16.4
2017-12-31 7.7
2018-12-31 -5.5
2019-12-31 22.8
2020-12-31 20.0
2021-12-31 -2.4
2022-12-31 21.3
Freq: A-DEC, dtype: float64
(the figures for 2014 are roughly half what I actually got, since for comparision purposes I've changed the figures to fit a consistent risk target of 25%)
When working in the city I'd have these year end performance review one to ones with my manager at this time of year, which was basically about sussing out what sort of bonus you deserved. I was very unlucky to be saddled for a couple of years with a manager who didn't appreciate my outgoing personality. He very much disapproved of the humour I deployed annually when I was working as Santa for the office secret santa (given I lack the natural girth for such a role, I'm assuming my sense of humour is what got me the gig, including the time I did the entire set as Jimmy Saville shortly after he'd been exposed as a very naughty man), nor my regular drunken antics at the annual christmas party which followed later that day (nothing #metoo I hasten to add, but there was a reason why one of my 'jokey' leaving presents was a pair of boxing gloves, and another a pair of running shoes in case things went badly) which invariably fell shortly before the review meeting.
My bonus was noticeably lower in those years, and although there were some confounding factors like the overall performance of the fund and the USD/GBP rate, I do wonder if my high spirits cost me a fair chunk of change.
Anyway, in the absence of such a meeting I find it useful to review what I thought I'd do against what I actually did in 2022. Since I've had a moveable feast in terms of updates, here are the goals listed with their outcome, throughout the year.
2021 end of year post:
- adding a few more instruments.
Done and probably finished this project, barring any new markets that pop up. I'll be letting my barchart subscription lapse, since that is only useful for backfilling and not for genuinely new instruments.
- teaching.
Done with a messy hybrid of in person and students on zoom, and contract renewed for next year
- finishing the book.
Done - it's at the indexing stage and my work is basically completed. Due out in April.
- pysystemtrade: dependency on arctic, and therefore an old version of pandas (
discussion here). If I'm forced to I might have to do something with this, but ideally I'd like to put it off until Q3 or next year.
Didn't get round to this, but Arctic has been deprecated and the new version isn't open source, so this is potentially more urgent.
- pysystemtrade: there are few little features on my to do list
did them.
- monthly TTU podcasts. I do enjoy teasing the 'pure' trend followers
Still going, and there is a year end special coming up, but you may have noticed that the pure TF people aren't around as much. Moritz is doing his own podcast, Jerry prefers doing his Twitter spaces of Friday, so it's just Rich 'Outlier' Brennan
- in person conferences.
Did a couple of these, and also back to my usual Uni guest lecture slots. I expect to do a lot fewer of these than prior to 2019, as except for very sales driven events people are embracing Zoom et al more. E.g. I got invited to the US next year, but they weren't willing to cover my airfare!
- editing, and creating the web page for the book along with spreadsheets and python code.
Done a '1st draft' of this, but I need to go through everything and do some tidying up and bug fixing.
- implement the new strategies I will have developed for the book.
Didn't happen as discussed at length in previous updates.
June post (new tasks only)
- refurbishing an old bike
done
- trying to get a bit more exercise
did pretty well until the UK got very cold and snowy; it's now just wet so will hopefully do at least a bit of running over Christmas.
- baiting crypto people on twitter
this mission will never be complete. I did actually get banned from twitter for about 24 hours, thus joining an illustrious list of people.
October post (new tasks only)
- It looks like then, for the forseeable future, that I will be sticking with a single system. I will probably add some new trading rules at some point
No progress here
- go through all my markets, checking costs and slippage assumptions, and getting a set of instrument weights that I expect I will be sticking with for a while to come.
Not done yet
- After the book comes out in April I expect to spend most of my time on pysystemtrade, doing a proper tidy up of code conventions, documentation and generally doing a long overdue clean up.
Not started yet
So then, looking forward to next year, how is the plan looking? Dates are very approximate.
Q1:
- Teaching. I've updated my slides to make them more current, for example including FTX as an example of counterparty risk

- finish spreadsheets and code for book
Q2:
- As part of my annual go through all my markets, checking costs and slippage assumptions, and getting a set of instrument weights that I expect I will be sticking with for a while to come
Q2, Q3 and Q4:
- pysystemtrade: arctic dependency, doing a proper tidy up of code conventions, documentation and generally doing a long overdue clean up.
- Research (see below)
Q4:
- Start thinking about another book
Regular gigs:
- Exercise
- A few in person conferences, and a lot more online ones
- TTU: there's quite a few new faces on the rota now so I won't be on quite as much.
- Consulting. I did quite a bit more than usual last year (still not very much!), with a whole four days worth (yes I'm a lazy f*****). I'm going to be doing a bit more this year since I'm on a monthly retainer for a fund, which guarantees me a few hours a month.
What about research then? After initially throwing the idea of trading relative value (RV) and fast mean reversion (MR) (the novel strategies from my new book) under a bus, I am coming round to the idea that they could work quite well in DO without being traded in an explicit fashion. For RV, we can create 'synthetic instruments' which we form forecasts for, but don't actually trade. This could actually be extended to non obvious synthetic instruments, for example artifical instruments formed by cointegration, mini portfolios selected to have good out of sample trend behaviour, high/low beta, hig/low vol within asset classes, or the so called macro trends discussed by
AQR. For MR it seems possible that the use of buffering and cost penalties allows very fast signals to affect our positioning at the margin without increasing costs. There are a few other random blog post ideas I have that are less likely to result in changes to my system, but still cool to think about.
OK let's address the elephant, ... another book? A while ago (
two years ago!) I posted a list of book ideas and asked for feedback;
1- a sort of Talebian style treatsie on uncertainty in financial markets, but with more formulas and practical advice
2- a book on ETF investing, factor investing for dummies. You know how my 3rd book is a simpler version of my 1st book? This would be a simpler version of my 2nd book, 'Smart Portfolios'. Love the symettery.
3- a book on quantitative futures trading. Think Schwager with more equations, and a bit of 'the global futures almanac' thrown in.
4- a book on writing and backtesting trading strategies in python. The differentation here is it won't use a predefined package, like
Andreas' book uses zipline. Just pandas and the normal numpy/scipy stack. With a heavy focus on uncertainty and doing things properly.
5- a textbook for my
university course
6- a sort of popular book on human and computer trading, and doing both
Obviousy I've just written (3). I'm thinking that my next book will be a combination of 1,4 and 5. Basically a book on backtesting but also uncertainty more generally, developing a lot of the themes in Systematic Trading and Smart Portfolios to a higher level. I won't put any python in the book as it will eventually get deprecated as has happened to Andreas, but this will definitely be a book where you will need to code so there will be examples available online.
I also have an idea for a popular book that would incorporate elements of 2 and 6 as well as being a popular version of the putative book #5, but I think I work better if I do the hard theoretical book then write the dumbed down version (cf Systematic Trading and Leveraged Trading).
Anyway, I'm off now, not to the office christmas party sadly... though I suppose I could drink 12 pints of cider and punch myself in the face to recreate those halycon days.
Rob