I used to "trade" many markets in the late 80's + 90's. I occasionally used leverage. Didn't have instant real time charts and hand plotted data. I guessed a lot. I eventually discovered that:
- the U.S. equity markets have an advantage or edge in that the underlying long term trend reflects solid stable policy, product innovation and development, persistence of credit cycle through monetary easing, incentives towards rewarding shareholders, etc. Other markets such as commodities and currencies don't "produce" anything and aren't supported by these "underlying" factors
- Longer term positions taken in the U.S. equity markets ( and sometime "cash" positions ) at strategic times can compound capital "geometrically" and produce as much profit and as an aggregate of short term trades with a lesser and commensurate amount of mental resources expended. A smaller allocation to emerging markets can help diversify valuation risk amongst markets.
- The combination of a strategic, empirically tested, quantitative ( non subjective, non technical / chart based ) strategy and longer holding periods alleviated much of the cognitive frustrations that I had when "trading" and built confidence.
- the evolution of Exchange traded fund products has streamlined the asset class selection process ( one doesn't even need to buy and sell individual securities anymore, necessarily) and has given the average investor easy access to products and portfolios that, in the past, only professional / institutional portfolio managers had the resources to construct. The underlying portfolio structure of these products can represent some of the highest decile alpha producing universes within academic testing.
- the tax deferral of a Roth IRA provides advantage in further compounding in one's asset growth.
- if one uses longer term holding periods and infrequent transactional models, one may want to learn another skill and occupation, creative endeavour, etc. as there will be time opened up to "fill" ( yet it does require time and a different learning curve than "trading" ).
- Don't quit your day job
- Don't use leverage
- Open a Roth IRA
- Sometimes money is made by sitting in cash
- Don't be a hostage to the markets
- let the markets, profitability of the U.S. economy work for you