Full Tilt Swing Journal - Virtual

One thing I need to work on for fun is a precision price level targeting system based upon momentum like quant funds have...

Of course... They pull a lot of data off fund flows to calculate the core supply/demand levels of the market then use that data in combination with momentum and price level formulas to solve the levels to accumulate and distribute.

Anyone remember the name of that quant fund that pulls 30%/year repeatedly? Blackrock or something?


The complexity of price momentum calculations is that they have to be done relative to volatility to have any usefulness... Ah, probably not gonna bother with it... Gut instinct is best there...

Not everything can be done by math until computers can calculate out the emotional effect of news...
 
Quote from RangeTrader:

One thing I need to work on for fun is a precision price level targeting system based upon momentum like quant funds have...

Of course... They pull a lot of data off fund flows to calculate the core supply/demand levels of the market then use that data in combination with momentum and price level formulas to solve the levels to accumulate and distribute.

Anyone remember the name of that quant fund that pulls 30%/year repeatedly? Blackrock or something?


The complexity of price momentum calculations is that they have to be done relative to volatility to have any usefulness... Ah, probably not gonna bother with it... Gut instinct is best there...

Not everything can be done by math until computers can calculate out the emotional effect of news...
More...

Blackrock.... yeah, right. I believe you're "thinking" of Rentech. Blackrock is a MF issuer.
 
Takes a while for there to be good daily swing setups... This whole half day thing before the 4th of July has me a little confused on my counts here. I'm thinking Tuesday should be ignored and Thursday is the next count... Hmmm.

There is only 2-3 setups per month. Serious patience required. If the setup is missed you can take a low odds entry on the setup, but that is "chasing" the trade...

We would all definitely go crazy with boredom waiting for swing setups without daytrading...


Quote from Wide Tailz:

I'm looking forward to the next live example.

:)
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No, I think "BlackRock" was stuck in my head because it is a mercenary company connected to the Vice president under George Bush... Cheney...

Totally forgot the quant funds name... There is a list somewhere of each one and their performance levels.

Quote from atticus:

Blackrock.... yeah, right. I believe you're "thinking" of Rentech. Blackrock is a MF issuer.
More...
 
Quote from RangeTrader:



There is only 2-3 setups per month.
More...

Why not use the 4 day sequence method you showed us in the trading forum. It should give you a few more dips to buy, inside the range.
 
The Tuesday Low conviction short I mentioned showed up. Haven't been bothering to update this journal.

No trade here though... Just a LC-S. Real low conviction... Most the market is likely to drop from a setup like this is 20-25 points from the highs. Why bother...

One more rally cycle required for a solid short setup.

Will enter short if this market breaks out toward 1390-1400 next week. Market sequence is hard to solve here though without a bearish engulf before the continuation.


As for the jobs report tomorrow... A good jobs report puts a negative pull on the market over the next week. A bad jobs report gives us solid rally potential nearing the Bernanke speech on the 18th.

The intraday market reaction from this type of economic news is meaningless game playing.
 

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Four day sequence??? That doesn't exist...

This market is trading with a 5/3 average right now... Average of five days up, with three days down. I am expecting the next daily rally cycle to be a three and a solid short... Just need a pullback then another rally.

How the market reacts around day three and five are all that matters. Very bullish price action recently.


Quote from Wide Tailz:

Why not use the 4 day sequence method you showed us in the trading forum. It should give you a few more dips to buy, inside the range.
More...
 
The past doesn't always repeat exactly, but it Rhymes... Here is the situation we are headed into...

Green dot shows where we are right now, and the green highlight overhead shows what were headed into.
 

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Another situation that is exactly the same as now... 2008.


A solid 20-30 point parabolic rally in the week and a half after a couple days of rally would make a nice blowoff point to short. We'll just have to see what we get.
 

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