FTX files chapter 11

[NoahA]

I was under the impression that the amount of bitcoin would be fixed.

Given that you said you read books and have been asking questions, I'm surprised. When you actually do the 100 hours of research, you're amazed at how the system can absolutely fix and replace what we currently have.

The reason why bitcoin is inflationary is that each block that is mined gives the miner 6.25 bitcoins. Clearly those miners are doing work by using lots of electricity and having to buy hardware, so its their reward for the work. Its like mining for gold. It takes lots of resources to mine it.

Now contrast this with what the government does to create money. Absolutely nothing! Each time they create, they dilute the money in my bank account. So that right there is already a huge mark against fiat currency.

But with bitcoin, this reward goes down about every 4 years because of the halving. By 2024, each block reward will only be 3.125 bitcoins. So you can see now why bitcoin is a great saving tool. It is programmed to become more scare. Every 4 years, the block reward is half. It started at 50 bitcoins per block, and nobody cared back then. It went to 25, then 12.5, and now the 6.25 we are at.

When you look at hashrate, you see that the amount of computing power going into the network just keeps rising, even as prices are falling. Clearly lots of companies aren't backing away and instead working hard to mine as it gets more and more difficult. And the thing is, these miners aren't even selling their bitcoins they receive, they hold them for the most part because they know how valuable its going to be. They are using debt to finance the current operations. Now its true that they say some miners will go belly up, but this just means the more efficient ones continue, which is essentially free market economics. Contrast that with zero interest rates for 10 years that kept dead companies afloat.

Everything about bitcoin will solve a majority of the world problems. I guess for the 0.001% that live happily off this crooked system it won't be so good, but the vast majority will benefit.

 

[deaddog]

Given that you said you read books and have been asking questions, I'm surprised. When you actually do the 100 hours of research, you're amazed at how the system can absolutely fix and replace what we currently have.

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Everything about bitcoin will solve a majority of the world problems. I guess for the 0.001% that live happily off this crooked system it won't be so good, but the vast majority will benefit.

I'm a skeptic. I don't see where Bitcoin can fix and replace what we have now. I've read the books and spent the time to research. The first thing that strikes me is that bitcoin is tied to fiat. If you don't have fiat you have no way of valuing bitcoin.

Take a look at North America. Canada, US & Mexico all have different economies and currencies. I never have wrapped my head around why there is such a difference between Canada and the US. I can see the difference with Mexico and I believe it's mainly corruption.
But the currency or money supply isn't going to make a difference. Canadian business likes a low dollar as it makes it easier to sell into the US. I don't see how bitcoin will change that.

More and more retailers are accepting bitcoin as a payment method but I'm sure they are converting it to fiat and the customer is paying the exchance rate. I'll become a believer when I see mercandise priced in bitcoin.

 

[Overnight]

...

More and more retailers are accepting bitcoin as a payment method but I'm sure they are converting it to fiat and the customer is paying the exchance rate. I'll become a believer when I see mercandise priced in bitcoin.

That is not going to change a darn thing, because anyone walking into the store and seeing something priced in bitcoin and actually owns bitcoin and knows what that is, is instantly going to try to translate in their head what bitcoin is worth in USD (or whatever their home currency is) at the time of purchase.

 

[engineering]

This is a mess that started very long ago, and many people say in 1971 when the power to print was essentially given the green light.

Debt bubble, asset bubble, inflation, they all have the same root causes, which is corrupt money system. The Fed is at the centre of all of this is well. So it does seem to me that it can all be fixed with a simple tweak. You separate money creation from the government and then you let natural forces of business take over.

You need to read some on the history of the US before the federal reserve even existed. Spoiler alert, all those things were still happening.

The notion that using Bitcoin on it's own will fix everything is delusional. This is what I mean when I say Bitcoin advocates are only playacting about fixing any problems.

Fixing real problems is hard. It requires serious detailed planning and significant buy-in. Audits, insurance, transparency, regulations: these things don't happen magically because you buy some Bitcoin.

Bitcoin exchanges haven't created their own analog to FINRA or SIPC because their customers don't demand it. Their customers don't demand it because they don't really care about long term solutions to real problems. Press them for detail and it becomes immediately obvious.

 

[NoahA]

Fixing real problems is hard. It requires serious detailed planning and significant buy-in. Audits, insurance, transparency, regulations: these things don't happen magically because you buy some Bitcoin.

This is what you don't understand. Why do we need audits if everyone has bitcoin and the blockchain can verify exactly if you have what you say you do? Same thing for transparency... the blockchain already provides transparency. Insurance, sure, buy some if you want, although I'm sure they need to first price out what it will cost. Lastly, regulations, these you only need because of shady business dealings. What sorts of regulations do I need if I keep my bitcoin in cold storage and use it as I want?

Of course the current people who benefit from this current fiat scam want everything to be difficult, but its actually quite easy. Its like business. Essentially every business just produces something that someone wants and is willing to exchange their money for the product or service. Business arrives at a fair price based on demand and supply. Other competitors move in if they want a piece of the pie or think they can do it better and the consumer decides who best serves their needs and is worthy of their dollars. (of course we might as well just say worthy of their satoshis!)

 

[NoahA]

I'm a skeptic. I don't see where Bitcoin can fix and replace what we have now.

Well, do you think the government printed too much money? What will stop them from doing this in the future? Is it even right that they can print whatever they deem is necessary.

Look at it this way. Money is what we get for working. Money represents stored work. I exchange my work for money because I'm getting something in return that I assume I can exchange for something else in the future. But now all of a sudden, the government comes in vastly increases the amount of money in the system, and it instantly devalues my stored work. When I agreed to do something for $20 per hour, I assumed that when I got to 20k saved, I could buy a car. But all of a sudden with this huge influx of extra money that the government printed out of thin air, that car now costs 30k and my stored work was arbitrarily devalued.

Does this sound fair? Does this sound like something the government should be able to do under the guise of supposedly helping the economy or citizens? We are essentially giving the government free rein over the most fundamental aspects of our lives. The government might as well decide what I can eat and whom I can converse with.

We wouldn't need bitcoin if the governments weren't so reckless.

Canadian business likes a low dollar as it makes it easier to sell into the US. I don't see how bitcoin will change that.

There is a very good argument for money to be global. Technololgy today is global. We don't have a different system of internet in Canada vs. US vs. Europe vs. Asia. Cell phones are pretty much this as well, with the exception of certain frequencies based on more local laws. Think of so many things that are important in the world and you see that there really are no geographical lines where that one things stops working.

But when it comes to money, we have this very old system where at geographical lines, it stops working and you need to do conversions. This is of course because the old gatekeepers want to keep control. But the future of money is digital, and for this to work well, there has to be a universal accepted standard. US dollar is of course the world reserve currency, but that has to be converted all sorts of times, and when you learn about the Eurodollar system, you find out how complex it is.

Fixing money is pretty much the last frontier. If we get it right with a system like bitcion that is permissionless, it will lead to lots of prosperity. If instead we go down the route of something like the CBDC, it will set civilization back.

 

[newwurldmn]

FDIC rarely pays out. Because banks are regulated so losses aren’t totAl. and other banks want the deposit base so they will buy the failing bank. Banks fail all the time: mostly community and local banks and they are gobbled up by another bank.

Defi eschews this and so we are back to banking in the 1700s. You should read up on how banking worked at the turn of the revolution with every state having its own currency.

I think the point was about the fact that not everyone can withdraw at once. We clearly don't have to worry too much about bank runs here in the west because any shortfall is going to be covered by the government with printed money. It does make a bank somewhat safer than a crypto exchange. But instead, the taxpayer gets to subsidize this "insurance" and any shortfalls are covered by the slow and steady devaluation of dollars.

Listen, what's happening in crypto right now is awful, but this is no way demonstrated that traditional finance and the current monetary system is superior. If anything, central banks have made the vast majority much poorer in the past 30 years than crypto has. Most people are just working to live and eat while the top 1% get to enjoy a glamorous life. What this crypto collapse is demonstrating in real time and excessive speed is how a few smart people steal from everyone else. Its exactly what is happening in the dollar system as well.

 

[newwurldmn]

Well, do you think the government printed too much money? What will stop them from doing this in the future? Is it even right that they can print whatever they deem is necessary.

Look at it this way. Money is what we get for working. Money represents stored work. I exchange my work for money because I'm getting something in return that I assume I can exchange for something else in the future. But now all of a sudden, the government comes in vastly increases the amount of money in the system, and it instantly devalues my stored work. When I agreed to do something for $20 per hour, I assumed that when I got to 20k saved, I could buy a car. But all of a sudden with this huge influx of extra money that the government printed out of thin air, that car now costs 30k and my stored work was arbitrarily devalued.

Does this sound fair? Does this sound like something the government should be able to do under the guise of supposedly helping the economy or citizens? We are essentially giving the government free rein over the most fundamental aspects of our lives. The government might as well decide what I can eat and whom I can converse with.

We wouldn't need bitcoin if the governments weren't so reckless.


There is a very good argument for money to be global. Technololgy today is global. We don't have a different system of internet in Canada vs. US vs. Europe vs. Asia. Cell phones are pretty much this as well, with the exception of certain frequencies based on more local laws. Think of so many things that are important in the world and you see that there really are no geographical lines where that one things stops working.

But when it comes to money, we have this very old system where at geographical lines, it stops working and you need to do conversions. This is of course because the old gatekeepers want to keep control. But the future of money is digital, and for this to work well, there has to be a universal accepted standard. US dollar is of course the world reserve currency, but that has to be converted all sorts of times, and when you learn about the Eurodollar system, you find out how complex it is.

Fixing money is pretty much the last frontier. If we get it right with a system like bitcion that is permissionless, it will lead to lots of prosperity. If instead we go down the route of something like the CBDC, it will set civilization back.

i disagree with this. if printing more money keeps real prices stable and controlled then we all benefit with the ability to plan and to invest.

 

[NoahA]

i disagree with this. if printing more money keeps real prices stable and controlled then we all benefit with the ability to plan and to invest.

Except that this is what we actually get...

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/04/03/m...reatest-economic-injustice-in-recent-history/

 

[newwurldmn]

Except that this is what we actually get...

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/04/03/m...reatest-economic-injustice-in-recent-history/

The qe did exacerbate wealth disparity. It was an unfortunate side effect.

And while QE was probably ran too long, it got us out of what would have been an economic catastrophe. In fact every government intervention tool (the creation of the fed, Keynesian economics, monetary policy, fiat currency) is the solution to an economic crisis that happend.

we had 30 years of prosperity thanks to stable inflation. Stable inflation allows for long term investment planning. Inflation encourages investment now rather than waiting (which is bad for technological growth).

crypto has to rewrite 500 years of economic lessons before it will work.