Frustrating to Buy Tops & Sell Bottoms

[Overnight]

...
Oil stocks are rebounding, looks like a new runup underway.

Not so fast. Inventories are building again and oil stocks got a bump from the re-opening play. It doesn't seem the energy sector will be safe until...

A). The vaccine is being distributed to the majority, and/or

B). The gulf of Mexico sinks into the upper mantle and OPEC+ decides to get stingy and stop production.

(Yes, B. is an exaggerated scenario, but I digress. )

 

[tomorton]

Reviewing the mkts over the weekend, my conclussion, it's toppy but safe, I doubt we are going to see a major selloff. The last week has seen exhuberance again which can be dangerous but I think going short will be more dangerous.
Oil stocks are rebounding, looks like a new runup underway.
Same with coal which has been in the sin bin for a while, it looks like it's turned the corner.
Both old fossil fuels.
Lithium imo is a good mkt bellwether.

Agree on your analysis of the market.

I'm interested as I spreadbet the Dow, occasionally throw in the Nasdaq and S&P, but in any case long only. Eventually the Dow always goes up. And eventually usually means the middle of the next week.

 

[syswizard]

Not so fast. Inventories are building again and oil stocks got a bump from the re-opening play. It doesn't seem the energy sector will be safe until...
A). The vaccine is being distributed to the majority, and/or
B). The gulf of Mexico sinks into the upper mantle and OPEC+ decides to get stingy and stop production.

PA in crude oil (CL) indicates instability in that market.....very dangerous trading. OPEC+ can come out with an announcement at any time good for +$1 or +$1.50/bbl. As far as I'm concerned, this is a rigged market.
However, the fundies remain bleak....and oil should really in the twenties, not the forties.