frustrating Friday

[Eddiemorra]

Thanks for playing KP and Kommissar.

Like I say though, as impressive as the entry was, I just don't get how someone can be so sure of 'targets'. When I fade a strong move like he did, I never expect much being that i'm swimming against the trend, but straight after the short he was very confident of at least +13 points. Every dip looked like a good long to me, but he just held through waiting for his 'target'. It's as if there's nothing 'reactive' about his trading and nothing in the charts or the tape would have changed his mind about where we were headed next. I saw another great trader trade somewhat like this on tacticaltrader forum (who else remembers that forum?!!)

PS - He's long now Kp from 46.5 stop at 44.75 - hopefully he'll lose this one as it's nice to see he is human from time to time!"

 

[k p]

You can typically find good support/resistance levels at previous closing prints in the spx/ES...Just based on that 1973 level, my guesstimate was that the other trader felt that a rally into Monday's close was a good low risk short...It works the same on the way down..For instance, a swing low in Russell 2000 was at the previous close and then it rallied into the first few hours today...

Look at Friday's SPX cash low/combined with the closing SPX from Monday...it's a resistance "zone"...Granted the 1973 entry is really good, but maybe the guy saw some divergence in NQ and Russell or such and just sold into the early strength (combined with the cash level resistance).

Interesting theory. I do often look at levels like this, and often also strip away the night session to make better sense of it. In this chart, the red lines are first the high put in just before the close on Monday, and then the lower red line would be roughly where the close actually was (based on a 4pm close I think). None of these are quite close enough to where the short at 73 was though, and based on the couple of posts that I have seen Eddie make, this guy has razor percision.

Incidentally, the green line follows the close on Tuesday, and we can see on Wednesday that price essentially opened here and dropped... so this could be on the radar. (I see actually that the minute before the open, price shot past this level and was very quickly rejected)

 

[k p]

PS - He's long now Kp from 46.5 stop at 44.75 - hopefully he'll lose this one as it's nice to see he is human from time to time!"

This one I can make sense of. The 44/45 level provided lots of support overnight. So perhaps as he saw price come down to here, and double bottom... which would be a double bottom at possible support, it made sense to go long. Not saying you would take a double bottom anywhere, but the fact that overnight, this area was providing support makes it that much move likely to hold. But what the heck do I know!

 

[k p]

PS - He's long now Kp from 46.5 stop at 44.75 - hopefully he'll lose this one as it's nice to see he is human from time to time!"

Out of curiosity Eddie, what do you figure his stats are in terms of % win. I realize he doesn't go for fixed targets, but from the few calls of his you have posted, he seems to always go for at least 10 points perhaps. On this trade, you are saying he has a 1.75 point stop. With such a tight stop, and a generous profit target, is he hitting at least a 75% win rate? It sounds like he is, and of course even 50% win rate would be enough for this great R:R ratio. But do you have some sort of guess since you've been following his trades for a while now?

 

[der_kommissar]

Interesting theory. I do often look at levels like this, and often also strip away the night session to make better sense of it. In this chart, the red lines are first the high put in just before the close on Monday, and then the lower red line would be roughly where the close actually was (based on a 4pm close I think). None of these are quite close enough to where the short at 73 was though, and based on the couple of posts that I have seen Eddie make, this guy has razor percision.

Incidentally, the green line follows the close on Tuesday, and we can see on Wednesday that price essentially opened here and dropped... so this could be on the radar. (I see actually that the minute before the open, price shot past this level and was very quickly rejected)

View attachment 156478

Bring up a SPX cash chart if you have it...I also like to monitor NDX, RUT, etc...as opposed to the etf's and/or futures since it becomes pretty "noisy". Also monitor levels in the various volatility indicies (VIX, VXN, RVX)...You'll find much better levels to trade off of.

 

[Eddiemorra]

PS - He's long now Kp from 46.5 stop at 44.75 - hopefully he'll lose this one as it's nice to see he is human from time to time!"

and he's out 2/3 of it here at 54.5 for +8

 

[k p]

Bring up a SPX cash chart if you have it...I also like to monitor NDX, RUT, etc...as opposed to the etf's and/or futures since it becomes pretty "noisy". Also monitor levels in the various volatility indicies (VIX, VXN, RVX)...You'll find much better levels to trade off of.

Thanks for the hints. I actually just watch/trade the NQ, so I'm not even all that familiar with the ES, just trying to use the same knowledge I know and applying it. I have a hard enough time making a decision as it is now, but if there is direct correlation here and the levels matched up even better, that would sure be quite interesting.

 

[der_kommissar]

Thanks for the hints. I actually just watch/trade the NQ, so I'm not even all that familiar with the ES, just trying to use the same knowledge I know and applying it. I have a hard enough time making a decision as it is now, but if there is direct correlation here and the levels matched up even better, that would sure be quite interesting.

If NQ is too difficult (I don't like trading futures much), although I trade alot of futures options...but you always have the option of trading QQQ options...basically like fractional positions and you can manage risk a bit better (partial entries/exits/spreads, etc...)...You can always try it out, just find some OTM (out of the money) strike with tight spreads and take the signals you are afraid to take with NQ.

 

[Eddiemorra]

and he's flat here at 56.5 for +10 on the rest

 

[k p]

If NQ is too difficult (I don't like trading futures much), although I trade alot of futures options...but you always have the option of trading QQQ options...basically like fractional positions and you can manage risk a bit better (partial entries/exits/spreads, etc...)...You can always try it out, just find some OTM (out of the money) strike with tight spreads and take the signals you are afraid to take with NQ.

This once again is even more over my head! I'm getting quite comfortable with the NQ actually, and the risk at $20 per point isn't too bad. The trick of course is to have a solid plan and follow it.

I am just intrigued here by the ability of this mystery trader to make such awesome calls and hence I just wonder if he's doing this based on levels he has in mind, and then if he's watching the micro price action, or if he's use T&S or the DOM, or whatever else. I find that the levels I use from within the NQ itself work damn well, but not nearly with as high enough of a win rate as what this guy seems to pull off, and even then the trades he puts on seem to be in the middle of nowhere sometimes. So there is clearly much much more out there to learn!