Frosty's auto-trading bot goes live with REAL money

Quote from frostengine:

roughtrader,

What stability issues are you refering to?? I had only 3 problems:

#1 was a code screw up I made the night before which did not cause any problem, just ment the bot did not trade that day

#2 was one day of lost quotes when A LOT of people were having quote problems form IB..... before and since no issue there.. that is to be expected occasionaly though...

#3 A freak power outage...

I don't see what stability issues my trading platform has..... the auto trading bot has been doing everything correctly
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Granted #2 is something you can't do anything about, but #1 and #3 you could have been prepared for. Catching bugs in your platform should be done while on simulation, otherwise use a more mature commercial platform for automation. #3, well, all I can say about that is "UPS".

RoughTrader
 
Quote from RoughTrader:

It does NOT pay to fight the trend for this particular instrument.
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Well, there is obviously some disconnect here. From the charts that Frost posted in the past, it looks like his "trend-fighting" system made a net gain of about 125 ER2 contract points over the 3-month paper trading test period, from which it is fair to conclude that trend fighting does work (or did work for that test period).

The other possibility, of course, is that it works for trends of certain durations, and doesn't work for trends of different durations (either shorter or longer).

Yet another possibility is that Frost might have missed something in his backtest, so it showed spurious results.

What I think is the most likely scenario is that the system was in fact profitable over that 3-month period of time, but the test period itself was too short and too abnormal in terms of ER2 action to be meaningful. It was just like 3 heads flipped in a raw: fairly easy to observe in a long series of throws, but worthless to bet on as a pattern.

I'd also say that the results of the live run are totally inconclusive, as well. Over the last one month of live trading, the system lost about 20 ER2 points, which is less than 3% of the contract value, while the ER2 contract itself ended about where it started one month ago. So, the only conclusion that can be made about Frost's retreat from the system is that he is undercapitalized. The system itself may be just fine.
 
Quote from RoughTrader:

syswizard,

With all due respect, I have to disagree with this sort of commentary. You assume that one is able to capture the move with 100% entry and exit efficiency, which is of course impossible. You will also note that the majority of the session (excepting the opening downward move) was substantially choppy. Intraday trend followers I think would have considered today a challenging day to make decent money.
RoughTrader
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I don't assume anything...and the facts remain...that was a nice "trend"....albeit short-lived. Even if the bot got 50% of that move, it would be noteworthy.
 
Quote from frostengine:

Today's loss was part of the system.. I watched it all unfold in front of my eyes... My emotions said to sell for a -$100.. I could tell the market direciton had shifted.... I spent the better part of the afternoon trying to find a way so that in the future the bot could identify what I saw... but I just can't put it into code.... That is partly why I decided to pull the plug..... the bot needs some sort of way of knowing these types of changes.. I can spot them.. but don't know how to tell the system to spot it..... I think that is the system's weak spot and it needs to be addressed
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Crazy question - if you see things that a computer program cannot, why not trade manually then? Why does there need to be a computer program involved here? While human knowledge and emotions can get in the way of trading, once you hone this skill your trading may be far superior to a computer program.
 
Quote from brownsfan019:

Crazy question - if you see things that a computer program cannot, why not trade manually then? Why does there need to be a computer program involved here? While human knowledge and emotions can get in the way of trading, once you hone this skill your trading may be far superior to a computer program.
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Well, after all, this is the AUTOMATED trading forum. But you are right. Despite IBM's Big Blue beating a human at chess, they've not been able to do the same with trading. It's been said it'll be another 10 years before the technology to put human intuition and cognitive knowledge into a piece of code is mature.
Also, Ricky Cheung, the famous trader who lost a fortune, then built a few strategies, and came back a winner said the same. He never relied totally on his "systems".
 
Quote from brownsfan019:

Crazy question - if you see things that a computer program cannot, why not trade manually then? Why does there need to be a computer program involved here?
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Hmmm, let's see, if you really could get a computer program to trade exactly as you would then you could go off and do something else enjoyable while your computer is busy making money for you.

Seems like a worthwhile goal to strive for.

Also you could add additional strategies that trade concurrently, something that a human may not be able to do easily if at all.

Then again, some people still think paper and pencil is better then word processor and spreadsheet apps. To each his own I guess.
 
Quote from syswizard:

Well, after all, this is the AUTOMATED trading forum. But you are right. Despite IBM's Big Blue beating a human at chess, they've not been able to do the same with trading. It's been said it'll be another 10 years before the technology to put human intuition and cognitive knowledge into a piece of code is mature.
Also, Ricky Cheung, the famous trader who lost a fortune, then built a few strategies, and came back a winner said the same. He never relied totally on his "systems".
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there is a reason 90% of volume on the london sx comes from automated systems.. i think they have already been quite successful replacing the human trader.
 
Quote from walterjennings:

there is a reason 90% of volume on the london sx comes from automated systems.. i think they have already been quite successful replacing the human trader.
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Speaking of the data outage frost experienced the other day, has anyone else noticed that the IB quote for ER2 is stale? I'm seeing the last price stuck at 792.5....

RoughTrader
 
Quote from RoughTrader:

Speaking of the data outage frost experienced the other day, has anyone else noticed that the IB quote for ER2 is stale? I'm seeing the last price stuck at 792.5....
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I had that happen yesterday, restarted TWS and it was fine.
 
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