Frosty's auto-trading bot goes live with REAL money
- Thread starter frostengine
- Start date
An old thread I came across is a great read. When to activate/deactivate a system. If you need to deactivate at some point Frost, make it an OBJECTIVE decision. Good luck this week!
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&highlight=activate/deactivate&pagenumber=1
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&highlight=activate/deactivate&pagenumber=1
Great link... some very good information there...
BTW I can not tell with any accuracy if I actually fixed the defect that caused friday's results to not match what the backtest said it should be. I think I may have fixed it however, and as such I will be running method 2 live again today....
Another thing that gave me a lot of confidence in both my systems is that within that above link I found a link to a program that generates a PL chart randomoly based on your winning percentange and average win/loss.... when I plugged that in I saw some crazy charts appear and from some of the drawdowns I saw that chart achieve it makes me believe that althougth my PL chart starting to look nasty it could still be PERFECTLY fine.... so that was nice...
-$29 for today on 2 trades using method #2..... I will run some backtests shortly to determine how the system THINKS it should have done according to the backtest to see if I got that bug worked out and see how method#1 would have performed.....
not a bad day.. I'll take a small loss.... its now been SEVERAL days without a huge up day.. so I think the system is due for one very soon....
not a bad day.. I'll take a small loss.... its now been SEVERAL days without a huge up day.. so I think the system is due for one very soon....
Russel ER2 was up 13 points at one point and your system is down $29.00.
I think a large up day like today with a losing tally should make you really dig into the system to see why it did poorly on a day where the underlying had such a large swing. You would hate to miss days like these if you can avoid it..
I think a large up day like today with a losing tally should make you really dig into the system to see why it did poorly on a day where the underlying had such a large swing. You would hate to miss days like these if you can avoid it..
well good news and bad news...
Good news is my strategy matched the backtest EXACTLY today, so the results did what it thought it should do.. so good.... glad to have that fixed...
Bad news is my method #1 would have made $230 today.... so i went with the wrong one for the day....but thats ok... comparing it to just a few days doesnt mean much... i'm still find with method #2.. i really think that its the better of the two, although I am sure over the long run either one of them will be profitable....
Good news is my strategy matched the backtest EXACTLY today, so the results did what it thought it should do.. so good.... glad to have that fixed...
Bad news is my method #1 would have made $230 today.... so i went with the wrong one for the day....but thats ok... comparing it to just a few days doesnt mean much... i'm still find with method #2.. i really think that its the better of the two, although I am sure over the long run either one of them will be profitable....
Here is some analysis I recently done on both method #1 and method #2.... nothing great.. but has some useful info...
Method #1
Here is a breakdown of the % chance an event happens in a single trade:
lose more than -$100 = 19%
gain more than $100 = 25%
lose more than -$200 = 8%
gain more than $200 =16%
lose more than -$300 = 3%
gain mroe than $300 =10%
lose more than -$400 = 1.5%
gain more than $400 =6%
Method #2
lose more than -$100 = 15%
gain more than $100 = 31%
lose more than -$200 = 7%
gain more than $200 =20%
lose more than -$300 = 3%
gain more than $300 =11%
lose more than -$400 =1.7%
gain more than $400 =9%
Method #1 Vs Method #2
lose more than -$100 19% vs 15%
lose more than -$200 8% vs 7%
lose more than -$300 3% vs 3%
lose more than -$400 1.5 vs 1.7
make more than $100 25 vs 31
make more than $200 16 vs 20
make more than $300 10 vs 11
make more than$400 6 vs 9
What I gather from this is that method #2 is better... any other thoughts on this?
Method #1
Here is a breakdown of the % chance an event happens in a single trade:
lose more than -$100 = 19%
gain more than $100 = 25%
lose more than -$200 = 8%
gain more than $200 =16%
lose more than -$300 = 3%
gain mroe than $300 =10%
lose more than -$400 = 1.5%
gain more than $400 =6%
Method #2
lose more than -$100 = 15%
gain more than $100 = 31%
lose more than -$200 = 7%
gain more than $200 =20%
lose more than -$300 = 3%
gain more than $300 =11%
lose more than -$400 =1.7%
gain more than $400 =9%
Method #1 Vs Method #2
lose more than -$100 19% vs 15%
lose more than -$200 8% vs 7%
lose more than -$300 3% vs 3%
lose more than -$400 1.5 vs 1.7
make more than $100 25 vs 31
make more than $200 16 vs 20
make more than $300 10 vs 11
make more than$400 6 vs 9
What I gather from this is that method #2 is better... any other thoughts on this?