Well, wheat and beans are WAY off their highs, soft commodities have been fucked since early march, precious metals are weak and gold is off 15%. With the exception of energy and rice, the top was *already put in*. And this is in the face of a falling dollar too, which should be good for commodities.
Feb/march was a classic medium-term blowoff top in most commodities. Energy and rice are really the only strong commodities left that are making new highs. Both are facing short-term supply issues.
Basically I think commodities got too popular and need like 6-12 months of crap performance so everyone gets bored of them and gives up. Then it will be time to get back in again. I see it as a rerun of Spring 2006 where there was lots of bullishness on commodities - you then had a 1 year correction in oil, gold, copper etc, everything that had gone up loads.
The reasons I don't think it's a secular top are:
1) bullishness has not got high enough. For a secular top you need commodities to be like tech stocks circa early 2000 - insane volume, the whole country (not just traders and wannabe traders) trading them, huge waves of IPOs at ridiculous prices with huge 1-day pops, blue chip commodity firms trading at truly insane P/E multiples (50+ for blue chips, 200-300+ for speculative ones) etc.
2) the inflation-adjust prices of most commodities are way below their 1970s-1980 highs.
3) the bear market lasted 20-25 years. This bull is less than a decade old. Commodity bull cycles normally last 10 years minimum and usually longer.
I think something like Minnie wheat may have made a long-term high. But not soft commodities like sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa etc. I think this top will be something like the top in 1990 in stocks - you will get a hefty pullback (which has already occured to a large extent) but once that is over, the long-term trend still has plenty to go.
